2021 Points League Rankings - Second Base

With football finally behind us (the season is over, right?) we're entering the best time of the year...AKA fantasy baseball draft season. Many may be focused on roto but point players are chomping at the bit after 2020's shortened season basically torpedoed H2H point leagues.

So let's do some point ranks, shall we? If you've forgotten from last year, I have strong opinions on point leagues. TL;DR? You can't just transfer over value from roto and you can't just take players with good BB/K ratios. You must make your values based on your specific rule and not assume that someone who is good in one scoring system will hold the same value as in another system. If you don't, you'll be behind from jump street. Or, at least you won't be as set up for success as you could be.

We're going to start things off at the keystone, sorting the wheat from the chaff and seeing who you should be targeting in upcoming drafts. Why start at second base? Because there's a guy named, Nicklaus, of course! Let's get to it.

Methodology and Common Terms

I'll mention this often ( and have mentioned it often); player values can vary wildly depending on your individual league settings. Whether using the standard scoring of the major platforms (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax) or custom setting, understanding how players score in your system and how roster sizes affect value is supremely important. The more you leverage this understanding, the more powerful the position you'll be starting from.

Here are the standard roster settings on the aforementioned platforms:

Here are standard scoring settings on the aforementioned platforms:

Hitters

With values varying, it can make doing a general point ranking a little tricky. For example, Ronald Acuna Jr. is a top-five player for me on every platform besides ESPN, where I'd probably put him closer to #20. That's a big swing.

So what I've done is to use a "generic" point system as a baseline for doing ranks, as well as talking about per-PA scoring rates. It gives the one-point per-base that all systems generally use, with two points for stolen bases and -.25 points for a strikeout. This gives us a common baseline so we're at least speaking close to the same language, no matter your platform. But if you're on ESPN, know that you'll need to make heavier adjustments for speed/high K% players.

Other system notes

• Yahoo started mirroring their scoring to their daily fantasy game, making the scoring wildly different than other platforms. Like, straight nanners, different.
• ESPN (-1) and CBS (-.5) both subtract points for strikeouts. This is a monster difference and must be properly accounted for. Take Ronald Acuna Jr. versus Juan Soto in 2019, as an example of the difference over a full season. Acuna had a 26.6% K%, while Soto posted a 20.0% K%. That translated to 188 strikeouts for Acuna and 132 SO for Soto, putting Acuna in a 56-point hole under ESPN scoring. That's a big difference.
• ESPN only gives one point per stolen base. The more a player's value depends on stolen bases (in other scoring formats, as well as roto), the more their value will take a negative hit on ESPN. It's not as an extreme difference as the strikeout scoring but still needs to be accounted for.
• Players who steal a lot of bases and strikeout a lot are going to take big hits on ESPN. Adalberto Mondesi is the most extreme example of players who are essentially not draftable on ESPN when comparing their scoring to likely ADP. But  Jonathan Villar is in a similar boat, as is the aforementioned Acuna Jr. Let's just say that if you see an ESPN point rankings that have Acuna Jr. in the top-10, you should run away.

Data Notes

• Statcast data is taken from EV Analytics and can be slightly different from Baseball Savant due to EV's own methodology. From their glossary:

Note: Statcast stats are calculated live by in-ballpark cameras and radar. These occasionally fail to record data on certain batted balls. All data and projections displayed at EV Analytics that rely on Statcast data identify these missed balls and estimate what they should have been. Internal tests showed this to be slightly more accurate than either ignoring the missing data or using MLB's.

• Barrel - From MLB.com:

"The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented in 2015. 

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands."

Common Terms

• Barrel% - Barrels per batted-ball event
• Air% - total percent of balls hit in the air (fly balls + line drives)
• Air% average EV - average exit velocity of non-groundballs
• Air % 100+ mph- the percentage of balls hit in the air that had an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater.
• Average EV Top-5% - The average exit-velocity of a player's top-5% hardest-hit balls.
• Average EV Next-20% - The average exit velocity of the next 20% of hardest-hit balls.

In addition to rankings, the charts include how players have scored the last three years in the generic scoring system, as well as what I am currently projecting for 2021. Also included in 2019-20 strikeout rates to better help those who play in leagues where they are punished, make adjustments, as well as wOBA and xwOBA for 2020.

Second Base Rankings

Tier One

I'm not expecting the insane production that D.J. LeMahieu has put up as a Yankee in 2019-20 but his game is built to be a monster in point leagues and I don't expect that to change much in 2021. All the guy does is hit; his .315 xBA was in the top-3% in 2020 and was in the top-1% every year but one between 2016-2019. With LeMahiue resigning with the Yankees, there is little doubt that he'll again be a point league masher.

Whit Merrifield is just a shade behind LeMahiue, with the tie being broken by supporting cast, not talent. Merrifield has always been a points monster in most formats and I don't see that changing in 2021. He doesn't have the ceiling of others but is remarkably consistent and really the only reason his value has fluctuated in roto is because of his varying stolen base output. Merrifield plays every day, doesn't strikeout, and fills up the stat sheet. Combine his high-rate of scoring with something approaching 700 PA and you wind up with one of the safest plays in points.

Ozzie Albies finished with only 124 PA in 2020 after missing time with a bruised wrist, posting a career-low 4.0% BB% and career-high 24.2% K%. And he still managed to score points at virtually the same rate as he did in 2019. His projections on Depth Charts (26 HR - 88 R - 86 RBI - 14 SB -.277 AVG) feel about right, though light on runs scored. Because good things tend to happen when you bat between two of the best players in baseball. That's not a very exciting line but one that will play very well in points if Albies gets back to his elite strikeout rates of the past.

Tier Two

I'm not nearly as high on Cavan Biggio in roto but he's like a lite-version of Albies and Merrifield in points. He does strike out a lot more (26.5% K% in his career) but walks at an elite rate, with slightly above-average production in every category. Combine that with his spot near the top of the exciting Toronto offense and you have all the making of a top-notch accumulator.

With the recently announced trade of Francisco Lindor to the Mets, I'm moving Jeff McNeil even higher. That's what happens when you go from hitting behind Brandon Nimmo to behind Lindor. Even before the trade, I had McNeil as a big value, as his skill-set screams points player. He has a 12.0% K%, 82.7% contact-rate, and  .383 OBP for his career and has never had lower than a .311 AVG. If McNeil plays every day and posts over a .380 OBP and .300 AVG (like he has every season he's been in the majors) while batting between Lindor and Pete Alonso, there is a near-zero chance he's not an elite scorer in most point formats...I checked the math.

So maybe Ketel Marte's 2019 power breakout wasn't completely sustainable? Marte came back to earth in 2020 after finishing with 32 HR the year prior, hitting just two home runs, with a .122 ISO and .315 wOBA. In terms of per-PA production, that's the difference of going from Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2019, to Garrett Hampson in 2020. Not great. I don't like him to produce quite as much as Depth Charts is calling for but still think he's a borderline top-75 player with room for value.

Tier Three

His birth certificate may say Nicklaus Madrigal but his soul says, Willians Astudillo. Others can argue about his ultimate value in roto but Madrigal has the profile of a god in point leagues. Hence, the top-100 ranking.

In 109 PA in 2020, Madrigal posted a 6.4% K.% (3.2% SwStr%) and 3.7% BB%, with a 92.7% contact-rate, scoring .60 pts/pa. Not an elite rate but that also wasn't the best version of Madrigal. If you go by what Depth Charts projects in 2021 (7 HR - 69 R - 60 RBI - 20 SB - .307 AVG over 630 PA) his 432 points would be the 67th-highest overall. So I'm not completely crazy, right? Maybe I am but it just can't be understated how well his skill set will translate to most point systems. Hail Willians, full of face, for he has been reborn.

Mike Moustakas will likely again be criminally underrated in point leagues, coming off of a down year where injuries limited him to 162 PA. The now 32-year-old isn't going to return to his peak performance from 2017-19 but a .250 AVG, .325 OBP, and 30+ HR seems like a fair expectation. Depth Charts like him even more on the power side, projecting 35 HR. That's a bit rich for me, as his Air% average EV finished in the 42nd percentile (down for the third year in a row) and his Air% 100+ mph was in the 48th percentile, down from 63rd in 2019 and 58th in 2018. But he also plays at one of the best parks in baseball for LHB, so if a few extra fly out, I won't be shocked.

My Dylan Moore ranking is aggressive but in addition to believing in his talent, I'm also banking on closer to 600 PA than the 567 PA that Depth Charts is projecting. He's in competition with Shed Long Jr. for the starting job at second base but Moore can play multiple positions in the infield and the outfield if he loses out to Long. But I also think he's a better hitter than Ty France and could see time at DH, as well.

Moore raised his 7.2% Brl% in 2019 to 14.1% Brl% (90th percentile) in 2020, increasing his max exit velocity from 106.4 mph to 109.8 mph, and his Air% (100+ mph) from 30.3% to 35.2%. And while a 27% K% isn't ideal, it was down from 33% in 2020, and his 10.7% SwStr% (down from 11.2% in 2019) says we could see another decrease in 2021.

At his likely price, I can't imagine I'll have Brandon Lowe in many point leagues. The 25% K% I can handle, because it's balanced with an above-average walk-rate. Plus, Lowe posted an elite 17.6% Brl% (top-2%) for the second year in a row, and while his Air% average EV dropped from 95.8 mph to 93.3 mph, his Air% (100+ mph) increased from 42.5% to 44.4%. Unfortunately, though, the Rays are gonna Rays and it's hard to trust that Lowe (or any Tampa player) will reach 600 PA. That makes it hard to pay Lowe's likely top-75 price.

We may have already seen the best of Max Muncy in 2018-19 but the Dodger second baseman hasn't lost his power stroke and over a full season is going to go right back to being the .250-ish hitter that he is (.192 AVG in 2020). His K% is about average but Muncy puts up an elite walk-rate every year; not a bad thing on a team as good as the Dodgers. His ceiling is limited but Muncy is a pretty solid lock to at least return his draft cost.

Tier Four

I don't know where Tommy La Stella ends up signing but even as a current free agent his 300 ADP is ridiculously low in any format and particularly so in points. Playing in a total of 55 games for the Angels and Athletics, La Stella posted an 11.6% BB% (77th percentile) and an elite 5.3% K% (100th percentile), scoring 174 points in our generic system, tying him with Max Muncy for the 5th-highest scoring second baseman. La Stella never had a full-time job before last season but scored .78 pts per-PA in 2019 before his .75 pts per-PA in 2020. The skills play in points and as long as La Stella gets a job that comes with a likely 550 PA, he'll be a borderline top-10 value at the position at a top-30 price.

I don't care what format it is, points or otherwise; I'm not touching Keston Hiura. Especially not at a top-65 ADP. What about his disastrous 2020 says paying top dollar for him again is a good idea? Because it wasn't his 34.6% K%, .299 wOBA, or .303 xwOBA. And while his HR per-PA stayed relatively static compared to 2019, his Air% average EV dropped from 92.8 mph to 89.1 mph and his Air% (100+ mph) dropped from 47.9% to 43.1%. Hard pass.

(Checking watch...) Ok, good. Looks like we still have plenty of time to hate on Jose Altuve. An 18.6% K% is still excellent but has now risen seven seasons in a row, his .280 xwOBA, and .303 xwOBAcon were both career lows (since the introduction of Statcast data in 2015), as were his .278 wOBA and 77 wRC+.  Oh, Mr. Altuve, thank you for checking it at the wash(ed) room but I'm afraid we'll be continuing to not tell you what pitch is coming next. Go ahead and buzz yourself out.

Tier Five

There is a bi-iiig gap between tiers four and five, with four ending with Jose Altuve at #134 overall and Tier Five not starting until Luis Arraez at #199. Arraez missed time to injury in 2020, finishing with just 121 PA in 32 games, but slashed .321/.364/.402, with a .335 wOBA and 111 wRC+. That's an impressive ratio line but it wouldn't get you much in roto as Arraez was virtually empty on counting stats, with 16 runs scored, 17 RBI,  and no home runs or stolen bases. But even with a less-than-stellar performance, Arraez still scored at a rate of .66 pts per-PA, after posting a .71 pts/pa in 2019.

Arraez is another guy with a skillset that may equal middling value in roto but can make him a star in points. Penciled in currently to bat second for the Twins, even if you project Arraez for the same scoring rate as 2020 (which Depth Charts basically does), he's a top-200 player if he reaches 550 at-bats. If gets closer to 600 PA (not a stretch for the number-two hitter on a good offense), he'll be in the top-150. But if he scores as he did in 2019 and reaches 600 PA, he's a top-120 player. All for the price of free.

C'mon, we're just totally ignoring Jonathan Schoop again (365 ADP)? He's another player without a contract yet but resigning with Detroit seems like a strong possibility. Schoop scored .63 pts per-PA in 2018, .71 pts/pa in 2019, and .72 pts/pa in 2020. Maybe he's only someone who scores in the .63 - .65 pt/pa range but that's still above a replacement player in most leagues at basically a price of free.

Rounding out our group of good players who are currently without a 2021 home, Jurrickson Profar tends to score at an elite level when looking at per-PA rates. Unfortunately, he never has a full-time job. I currently have in the 225 range but that is going off of a conservative estimate of around 500 PA in 2021. If he happens to sign somewhere with full-time at-bats available, Profar will shoot up the rankings.

Tiers Six and Seven

I'd never really gotten the excitement about Nick Solak but had started to get on board after 2020 started to look like a breakout. And then things went...poorly:

Solak slashed .268/.326/.344, with a .293 wOBA and .311 xwOBA, finishing with two home runs and seven stolen bases. He currently has a 168 ADP on NFBC, so I guess people are really excited about the stolen base outburst? I'm not. Nor am I excited that his Air% average EV dropped from 95.2 mph in 2019 to 88.4 mph in 2020, while his Air% (100+ mph) went from 34.3% to 24.2%. Unless we see a sudden leap in talent, I find it hard to believe that Solak will earn anywhere close to a top-150 draft price. It's not that he's bad but maybe there were good reasons why the Yankees and Rays were both okay with trading him away.

If you were to guarantee me that Jon Berti would get 600 PA, he'd be a borderline top-150 player for me. However, he's a slap-hitting compiler who needs to rack up plate-appearances. But alas, 475-525 PA seems a lot more likely than 600 PA and that will stop his above-average rate of scoring from accumulating enough value.

It's far too early to make judgments about the future of Gavin Lux, who has been lackluster after putting up electric numbers in the minors, as1 51 PA over two seasons isn't enough to tell us much of anything. But it is troubling that someone with a supposed ceiling of 70-grade power has had such blah exit velocities. Lux's Air% average exit velocity was in the 15th percentile in 2019 and the 14th percentile in 2020, while his Air% (100+ mph) went from the 28th percentile to the 21st. However, those are all secondary worries when it comes to Lux's value in 2021. Barring injury, he's just not going to play enough and even 500 PA seems like a stretch.

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