RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
Reflection: Last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic
Well, we stuck with the Bryson DeChambeau fade, and it obviously didn't pay off. That was the risk we ran with going full fade on one of the best players in the world, in amazing current form, at a track that he can bomb and gouge, and with a very weak field. It is what it is!
That being said, I know a few people in our community that went full Bryson on DraftKings, but still only broke even or pulled in a marginal profit. It's simply because you still had to beat 25% of the field even after getting the Bryson call right. So I don't regret my decision to take that stand, even though my gut was telling me he was about to pop off like he did. Golf is hard, and anything can happen!
It's tough to dissect the rest of my build when the foundation was so dependent on DeChambeau not placing in the top 5. My biggest mistakes were definitely 50% Kevin Na, 45% Erik Van Rooyen, and 40% Will Gordon. I had plenty of Rory Sabbatini too, and his missed cut burned me in a couple of promising lineups.
The Na withdraw is what it is. That's the risk you run when you decide to take a stand on a volatile player like him. The EVR call hurts, because he looked lost with his irons, something that seemed completely fixed and comfortable in South Carolina just two weeks prior. And maybe I should've pumped the breaks a little on Will Gordon. The kid certainly has all the talent in the world, but he's still a kid. The early bogeys that put him in a tough hole to dig out of could've been a sign of the "come down" effect after all the excitement in Connecticut. Oh well!
As we look below at some of my exposures below through the DraftKings Lineup page, I loved how much Hatton, Hovland, and Hadwin I had. The triple Hs did all they could to get me some of my cash back. You'll see in a moment that I'm in no hurry to jump off them this week either! Tyler Duncan also had another solid week after a bit of a scare on Friday. All-in-all, I lost $45 of the $60 I entered. Luckily my Bryson outright bet still put me in the positive for the week, which won't be the case on most bad weeks. That's why it's important to factor in strings of bad weeks into your bankroll. They're going to happen in golf!
Approach: Workday Charity Open
From everything I've gathered about Muirfield Village Golf Club and the reports going around about how they're adjusting the course this week for phase one of their two-phase hosting saga, it sounds like the optimal week to just target your ball-strikers even if they can't putt. The reason being that the Par 72 course is pretty long, and the greens are pretty small. However, the fairways are wide enough to allow for minor mistakes off the tee, and the rough will supposedly be shorter this week and then will grow out next week for the Memorial Tournament. On top of that, the Bentgrass greens should be running much slower than players are used to at typical Muirfield, which should benefit those who struggle to read it right every time, usually frustrating us with missed 5-foot putts.
Then, when we start going back and looking at past results from the Memorial Tournament throughout the years, we see a lot of encouraging performances from guys who fit the mold I just described. Horses at this course can hit the long iron well, scramble if they need to, and of course get hot with the putter for a week.
So, while it very well may turn into a complete disaster, I'm using these trends and the course history as my cue to fire up all of my guilty pleasure plays. The ball-striking phenoms who just can't make a putt. I'm really banking on these slower greens to balance out the typical putting advantages/disadvantages, and in turn that should allow those above average iron players to rise to the top of the leaderboard. I've come to grips with the fact that my $60 in entry fees may never make it's way back to my account, but you won't be able to tell me I don't have enough upside in my lineups. It should be another entertaining week of golf nonetheless!
Staples Over $8.5K: Workday Charity Open
Viktor Hovland: $9,500 - About 45%
Hovland just about came through again for us last week. While you'd like a little higher of a finish for a $10k price tag, the ball-striking was unbelievably good, which is all we can ask for from the kid. He lost 3.5 strokes on the greens again, which resulted in a stall on Sunday rather than a charge up the leaderboard. Either way, his long irons and improved scrambling around the green have me just plugging him in once again and hoping the putts start to drop little by little. My only concern (if I had one) is that this is his fifth tournament in a row, but he's young enough that it's not a major red flag yet.
Hideki Matsuyama: $10,000 - About 45%
Matsuyama's bogey-free 65 on Saturday in Detroit was an extremely encouraging sign, especially now that he's heading to a course that's suited him very well in his career. The 28-year-old has only missed one cut here in six appearances, and he's logged a win, a 5th, and a 6th place finish as well. When Deki's game is right, his long irons into difficult greens look like wedges. He's also the player I think should benefit most from some slower Bentgrass greens. Buckle up for the Matsuyama roller coaster ride!
Justin Rose: $9,700 - About 40%
I'll have plenty of Rickie Fowler in this range as well, but Rose is my gun-to-head pick to win the tournament. Hopefully his dreadful showing at the Travelers Championship will keep ownership down, because there was a lot to like about his game despite that missed cut. The week off should allow him to reset and come out firing like he was at the Schwab and Heritage. Like Deki, Rose is also 5-for-6 at the Memorial historically, and he's logged four Top 8 finishes in that span.
Staples Under $8.5K: Workday Charity Open
Adam Hadwin: $8,200 - About 50%
Well, DraftKings decided to keep Hadwin's price exactly the same one week removed from a T-4 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The Canadian did exactly what we hoped he would, finding his approach and making some big putts late. Hadwin's smooth, consistent swing is ideal for a plethora of long irons in a round, and I've mentioned before that he's known for his scorching hot runs when his game gets right. I'm getting right back on the Hadwin wagon!
Joel Dahmen: $7,700 - About 40%
Mr. Bucket Hat hasn't missed a cut in his three events since they layoff, and his lights out Tee-to-Green game picked up right where it left off. The putting will come and go with Dahmen, but the man is a scorer, and he can quietly take over a leaderboard and linger to a Top 10 finish. It's an added bonus that he has seen this track before, just making the cut in a 68th place finish last year.
Byeong Hun An: $7,900 - About 35%
If you would've told me two weeks ago that Benny An would end up in my GPP article as a staple at 35% in the near future, I'd have called you insane. Yet, here we are. Golf (and DFS in general) is about remaining as unbiased as possible, and trusting the numbers despite the risks. An's history at this track is marvelous, having never missed a cut in four appearances, including a 2nd place finish in 2018. He gained strokes putting in all four of those events, and trended positively at the Travelers two weeks ago, gaining 1.7 strokes on the Bentgrass/Poa greens there. An is a great scrambler, and his irons can get hotter than anyone's. Here goes nothing!
Russell Henley: $7,300 - About 35%
Henley's long irons are one of the best on tour, and he's gained 8.2 and 10.6 strokes on approach in two of his last three events. The Georgia native is 3-for-5 in made cuts at the Memorial, and he's made the last two with finishes around 30th place. We're looking for a made cut here to get us to the weekend, and venturing to a long iron specialist with solid history at this course is as good a bet as any in this range. I like Henley to balance out the stud pricing when rounding out my lineups.
