Best Ball Strategy: Who To Target After Round 10

We have entered the month of August while continuing to navigate through the uncertainty of a unique and challenging offseason. However, the onset of training camps has intensified our anticipation for the regular season, and the team at RotoBaller continues to generate news, data-fueled analysis, and updated rankings that provide your pathway to draft preparations.

That includes our collection of resources for owners who are participating in Best-Ball leagues. Anyone who has embraced this highly popular format is already aware that the decisions that are made during each round of your draft remain critical. Because the benefit of avoiding all forms of in-season roster management also removes your option of using a waiver wire if your players are sidelined, or consistently deliver substandard production. 

This increases the significance of each selection once your drafts have entered the later rounds. Any doubts regarding the importance of capitalizing on each opportunity throughout the entire draft should be eliminated by a reminder that Lamar Jackson (116), Dak Prescott (136), Josh Allen (143), Darren Waller (158), DeVante Parker (194), D.J. Chark (234), A.J. Brown (246), and Terry McLaurin (282) were all available after Round 10 in 2019’s August drafts. Here is a group of players to target after Round 10 of current Best-Ball drafts.

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Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

QB21/141

After you have secured your QB1 you will return to the process of amassing running backs and wide receivers while your best options remain available. However, you will eventually revisit your situation at quarterback by selecting a second signal-caller, which presents an array of possibilities for your roster. 20 other quarterbacks are being selected before Garoppolo. But there is a considerable rationale for elevating the 28-year-old above a cluster of signal-callers that have more favorable ADPs.

He has now accumulated 25 games under center in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, finished 12th in passing yards during 2019 (3,978), and tied for fifth with 27 touchdown passes. But as you advance beyond the most basic data, you will locate his name among the league leaders in multiple categories. Garoppolo placed fourth in completion percentage (69.1) and was third in NextGenStats’ expected completion percentage (67.5). Garoppolo also led all quarterbacks in deep-ball completion percentage (55.6), and finished 11th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and also in DVOA Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average).

Quarterbacks	TD	Comp%	Comp	Yards	YPA
Lamar Jackson	36	66.1	265	3127	7.8
Jameis Winston	33	60.7	380	5109	8.2
Russell Wilson	31	66.1	341	4110	8
Dak Prescott	30	65.1	388	4902	8.2
Jimmy Garoppolo	27	69.1	329	3978	8.4
Carson Wentz	27	63.9	388	4039	6.7
Drew Brees	27	74.3	281	2979	7.9
Matt Ryan	26	66.2	408	4466	7.3
Aaron Rodgers	26	62	353	4002	7
Deshaun Watson	26	67.3	333	3852	7.8
Patrick Mahomes	26	65.9	319	4031	8.3
Kirk Cousins	26	69.1	307	3603	8.1
Tom Brady	24	60.8	373	4057	6.6
Daniel Jones	24	61.9	284	3027	6.6
Philip Rivers	23	66	390	4615	7.8
Jared Goff	22	62.9	394	4638	7.4
Baker Mayfield	22	59.4	317	3827	7.2
Ryan Tannehill	22	70.3	201	2742	9.6
Derek Carr	21	70.4	361	4054	7.9
Gardner Minshew	21	60.6	285	3271	7
Kyler Murray	20	64.4	349	3722	6.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	20	62	311	3529	7
Josh Allen	20	58.8	271	3089	6.7

Garoppolo also tied for second with 46 completions inside the red zone, was eighth in attempts (73),  and led all signal-callers in both completions (25), and touchdowns (16) inside the 10.

Red Zone Passing	Inside 20				Inside 10
Quarterback	Comp	Att	Comp%	TD	Comp	Att	Comp%	TD
Tom Brady	50	91	55	13	19	45	42	9
Jimmy Garoppolo	46	73	63	16	25	40	63	16
Jared Goff	46	70	66	18	23	37	62	15
Aaron Rodgers	46	78	59	23	23	36	64	10
Russell Wilson	44	89	49	25	20	33	61	15
Matt Ryan	43	81	53	20	18	29	62	14
Philip Rivers	43	79	54	15	20	37	54	9
Derek Carr	42	72	58	15	18	36	50	12
Carson Wentz	41	69	59	19	17	30	57	15
Kyler Murray	41	74	55	12	19	36	53	10
Drew Brees	39	56	70	18	16	25	64	11

He also has the luxury of connecting with George Kittle, after targeting his elite tight end on a team-high 23% of his passes in 2019.  WR1 Deebo Samuel is currently contending with a Jones fracture but can provide a massive boost to Garoppolo’s receiving arsenal upon his return. Until that occurs, first-round draft pick Brandon Aiyuk will join Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, and Jalen Hurd as candidates for usage at wide receiver. Garoppolo also targeted his running backs on 22.1% of his throws last season, and Shanahan’s attack will continue to utilize the 49ers’ backfield components in their aerial efforts.

Garoppolo remains undervalued due to his efficiency, and his opportunities to locate weaponry near the end zone. This provides you with a trustworthy QB2 that can be attained in Round 12 of most drafts.

 

Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars 

QB25/ADP 148

177 players and nine quarterbacks had already been selected during the 2019 NFL draft before the Jaguars utilized their sixth-round pick on Minshew. But he quickly launched into the fantasy landscape when Nick Foles was sidelined by a broken clavicle in Week 1. Minshew was surprisingly adept during his proverbial trial by fire while spearheading Jacksonville’s offense through Week 9. He also resurfaced as the team’s starter in Week 13, when an ineffective Foles was jettisoned to the bench.

Minshew ultimately finished 18^th among all quarterbacks in point-per-game scoring, while also finishing 20th in attempts (470), 20th in passing yardage (3,271/233.6 per game), and 21^st in completions (285).  He also placed second among all rookies in each of those categories. However, that does not complete his list of accomplishments that should be receiving more attention from potential owners.

Only ONE rookie QB in NFL history has thrown for:

20+ TD
Less than 10 INT
230 Yards Per Game@Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew.

Perhaps he's being underestimated heading into 2020? pic.twitter.com/AsakIb4luF

— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) June 18, 2020

Minshew constructed a favorable 21-6 touchdown to interception ratio, while also finishing fifth in play-action completion percentage (71.6), fourth in deep-ball completion percentage (45.1), and seventh in average air yards differential. He also tied for seventh in game-winning drives (3) and finished fifth at his position with 344 yards on the ground.

He is completely unencumbered by competition for QB1 responsibilities and should refine his abilities as he gains experience. He will be functioning with a shortage of dangerous receiving weaponry, although that was also the case during 2019. Minshew will benefit from operating with the exceptional D.J. Chark who finished 16^th in points-per-game scoring and should continue his progression toward WR1 status. Rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. is also an intriguing addition who supplies versatility and upside, while Chris Conley returns after establishing new career bests in multiple categories with Minshew last season (90 targets/47 receptions/775 receiving yards/ 16.5 yards per reception).

Jacksonville also finished ninth in pass play percentage in 2019 (61.9), and this year’s succession of negative game scripts should only elevate that percentage. Minshew is an enticing option for owners that will include three quarterbacks on their roster. He can also be deployed as a QB2 if you have waited until Round 13 to select your backup.

 

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

RB52/ADP 142

Edmonds enters his third season after accumulating 719 total yards on 152 touches in 2018-2019. He only reached a 40% snap count during three matchups last season. However, he also demonstrated his ability to thrive with a massive workload in Week 7, while David Johnson contended with an ankle injury. Edmonds exploded for 126 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries (4.7 yards per attempt) which vaulted him to RB1 in scoring during that prolific week. But his role quickly dissipated due to the career resurrection of Kenyan Drake.

Edmonds only registered nine carries and six targets from Weeks 8-17, as Drake confiscated lead back responsibilities upon his arrival in Arizona. Drake had averaged 28.3 yards as a rusher and 17.3 as a receiver through 3 1/2 seasons of unfulfilled expectations in Miami. But he ignited for 814 total yards and eight touchdowns from Weeks 9-17 while soaring to RB3 in point per game scoring during that span.

Those achievements have cemented him as the Cardinals’ primary back, while compelling owners to select him 11th overall in current drafts. Anyone who is making this sizable investment on the 26-year back can remain optimistic that he will sustain his statistical success. But even though we witnessed Drake’s capacity to flourish with RB1 duties during an eight-game sequence, we do not have evidence that he can maintain his effectiveness throughout an entire 16-game season.

People who are good at fantasy football draft Chase Edmonds pic.twitter.com/QfEbcJvD93

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) July 17, 2020

The potential for injury or ineffectiveness elevates Edmonds into consideration as both a handcuff and a viable roster stash, as he could become a productive roster component during the year. His value would soar if he experiences increased usage, as he would operate within an Arizona rushing attack that finished second in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency rankings.

Arizona used a seventh-round pick on Eno Benjamin, who must overcome the restrictions of a condensed offseason to become involved in the offense. That makes Edmonds a definitive insurance policy for Drake owners while delivering the prospects of appealing upside for all owners.

 

Damien Harris, New England Patriots

RB58/ADP 171

Harris accumulated 3,070 yards on the ground in four years at Alabama while averaging 6.4 yards-per-carry. During his final season, he also received more rushing attempts (150) generated more yardage (876), and attained a higher yards-per-attempt average (5.8) than Josh Jacobs (120 attempts/640 yards/5.3 per attempt).

Harris also became the sixth runner to be selected during the 2019 NFL Draft when New England invested a third-round selection on the 5’11”, 215-pound back. But he was unable to garner a role within the Patriots’ congested backfield. Sony Michel led New England in attempts (247), and rushing yardage (912), James White paced the backfield in targets for a fourth consecutive season (95), while Rex Burkhead accumulated 581 total yards.

Harris was limited to just 12 yards on four attempts, which has compelled many owners to dismiss him during the draft process. However, this presents you with an opportunity to capitalize on his Round 15 ADP, as Harris can accrue favorable numbers if he receives an expanded workload.

Michel's 15.4 attempts per game average remained virtually unchanged from 2018 (16.1), but he failed to perform as efficiently last season. His yards-per-game average dropped by nearly 15 yards (71.6/57), and his yards-per-carry average plunged from 4.5 to 3.7. Michel also failed to deliver a 100-yard performance after eclipsing that number four times in 2018. Michel’s usage as a receiver also remained minimal (12 receptions/94 yards), while offseason foot surgery has created uncertainty surrounding his status for the Patriots' upcoming activities.

Do the #Patriots let Damien Harris get some run in his second season?Picked up three yards after contact per touch in his rookie preseason, better than both Michel and White during the regular season. Goes for 30 yards on back-to-back, one catch & one run. pic.twitter.com/al4LgdH6DR

— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) July 29, 2020

Michel’s tenuous hold on lead back responsibilities bolsters Harris’ chances of attaining relevancy during his second season. Harris is a decisive runner, who is adept at advancing through the hole and generating yardage after contact. He is also proficient in short-yardage situations while possessing sufficient overall skills to become a productive runner at the NFL level. This supplies the incentive to target Harris, as any significant increase in his workload would provide automatic rewards in the Best-Ball format.

 

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs

WR44/ADP 134

Hardman finished three seasons at Georgia with 60 receptions, and less than 1,000 yards (961). He operated at wide receiver during his final two years with the program, while averaging 15.5 yards per reception and producing seven touchdowns in 2018.

When Kansas City’s Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach traded up to select Hardman in Round 2 of the 2019 NFL draft, they were adding another athlete with exceptional speed to the Chiefs' existing collection of explosive components. But route tree limitations and general inexperience at the wide receiver position would require a period of development before Hardman confiscated a significant role in the offense.

He did perform on 68% of the offensive snaps from Weeks 1-5. But that dropped to 35% when Tyreek Hill returned from a shoulder issue in Week 6. He eventually finished 10th among rookies in receiving yards (538/33.6 per game), and fifth in receiving touchdowns (6). However, his target (41/2.6 per game) and reception totals (26/1.6 per game) were far less impressive when contrasted with other first-year receivers.

But Hardman also finished second on the Chiefs in touchdowns, fourth in receiving yards, and led the team in both yards per reception and yards per target. His averages were also the highest among all receivers that collected 40+ targets.

Weeks 1-17	YPC	TARG	YPT	20+	40+
Mecole Hardman	20.7	41	13.1	9	4
Mike Williams	20.4	89	11.2	17	8
A.J. Brown	20.2	84	12.5	15	8
Kenny Golladay	18.3	116	10.3	22	6
John Ross	18.1	56	9	10	2
Stefon Diggs	17.9	94	12	20	8
Breshad Perriman	17.9	69	9.3	15	1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	17.4	56	8.1	7	5
Mike Evans	17.3	118	9.8	17	7
Michael Gallup	16.8	113	9.8	18	5
DeVante Parker	16.7	128	9.4	21	7
James Washington	16.7	80	9.2	13	4
Chris Conley	16.5	90	8.6	13	3
Terry McLaurin	15.8	93	9.9	15	3

Hardman attained a league-high 153.3 passer rating when he was targeted, according to PFF. His outstanding speed also propelled him to five touchdowns of 25+ yards, which tied him for the NFL lead.

Most 25+ yard TD receptions in 2019:

▫️ Kenny Golladay - 5
▫️ Mecole Hardman - 5
▫️ Darius Slayton - 5 pic.twitter.com/M6I3lUTdJ1

— PFF (@PFF) July 1, 2020

Hardman’s prospects for a sizable rise in targets and production would be even higher if Kansas City had chosen not to retain Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson. However, both veterans were signed with one-year deals, and their presence will not deter Hardman from ascending into an expanded role.  He is capable of delivering big-plays during any given matchup, and this home run potential should inspire you to target him before Round 11.

 

Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders

WR49/ADP 149

Ruggs is one of just nine wide receivers who has completed the 40-yard dash in 4.30 or less during the NFL Combine (4.27). His blazing speed was displayed repeatedly as a five-star prospect, along with his three seasons with Alabama (98 receptions/1,716 yards/17.5 yards per reception). This explosiveness will also propel him to huge gains as a dynamic vertical weapon with the Raiders.

However, Ruggs is also a fluid route runner, plays with unquestioned toughness, and presents his quarterback with a reliable pair of hands (one drop on 53 targets in 2019).

Drop rate among 1st RD WRs:

1. Henry Ruggs III - 3.6%
2. CeeDee Lamb - 4.9%
3. Brandon Aiyuk - 5.5%
4. Jerry Jeudy - 5.6%
5. Jalen Reagor - 5.8%
6. Justin Jefferson - 5.9% pic.twitter.com/eTmm9qpUJe

— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 10, 2020

This versatility separates him from many speedsters who were deficient in other aspects of performing effectively at the NFL level. It also elevates Ruggs into the select group of rookies that are best equipped to overcome the challenges of diminished offseason preparations.

He will join a revamped receiving arsenal that has also been fortified by the additions of fellow rookies Bryan Edwards and Lynn Bowden. The trio will blend with incumbent slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (5.5 targets/3.8 receptions/46.5 yards per game), probable WR2 Tyrell Williams, and tight end Darren Waller - who led the team in targets (117), 90 receptions (90), and receiving yards (1,145).

The specifics of Ruggs’ usage and eventual output will be partially dependent on his quarterback, and there are no surprises regarding Derek Carr after 94 career games. He eclipsed 4,000 yards during 2019 (4,054), finished second in completion percentage (70.4), and established a new career-high in yards per attempt (7.9). But he also finished just 38th in aggressiveness percentage (11.7) and 35th in completed air yards (4.9) according to Next Gen Stats.

If Carr is hesitant or unwilling to generate deep throws, Ruggs can still capitalize on his big-play potential by igniting for significant gains on high percentage routes. The prospects of former Titan Marcus Mariota resurfacing as the Las Vegas signal-caller during the regular season also remain intact.

Any inconsistency in his production will not deliver the same effect in Best-Ball scoring as it will in leagues that require lineup management. Ruggs’ ability to explode beyond defenders and onto the list of weekly scoring leaders should entice you to select him before his Round 13 ADP.

 

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers

TE23/ADP 137

After Round 11 of your draft has reached its conclusion, over 20 tight ends will be secured on league rosters. This could leave you with a sense of uneasiness if you have not selected your TE2. However, one of your remaining options is just one year removed from finishing fourth in point per game scoring.

Ebron is still just 27-years old and maintains the pedigree of being a top 10 overall pick. But he is often associated with the lengthy trail of disgruntled former owners that have been built during his career. Ebron averaged 54 receptions and 607 yards from 2015-2017, while his scoring ranged from TE13-15.

But Ebron skyrocketed to career-best numbers during 2018, which was his first year in Frank Reich’s Indianapolis offense. He finished fourth among tight ends in scoring and targets (110/6.9 per game). while leading his position in touchdowns (13). Ebron also finished fifth in yardage (750), sixth in receptions (66), and 10^th overall in red zone targets (21).

But Andrew Luck‘s retirement launched an inevitable decline in the Colts’ passing proficiency, and Ebron was relegated to his lowest totals in targets (52) receptions (31), receiving yards (375) since 2014. Ankle surgery also caused an abrupt ending to his season in November.

However, Ebron has resurfaced with Pittsburgh, which should fuel a second career resurgence. He will join a Steeler passing attack that experienced a statistical freefall last season, due to the protracted absence of Ben Roethlisberger. The six-time Pro Bowler should revitalize Pittsburgh’s aerial efforts if he can evade further injury.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is unlikely to approach his 2018 numbers (166 targets/111 receptions/1,426 yards) but will command the team's largest target share. Diontae Johnson led the Steelers in targets (92), and receptions (59) as a rookie, tied for 13th overall in targets from Weeks 14-17 (31/7.8 per game) and should remain highly involved in this year’s attack. James Washington and rookie Chase Claypool will also be injected into the receiving mix.

But their roles will not deter Ebron from capturing a consistent role as Roethlisberger’s primary tight end. That will allow him to function as a viable TE2 for your rosters, which justifies his selection in Round 15.

 

Devin Asiasi, New England Patriots

TE39/ADP 290

New England traded up to select a tight end during Round 3 of April’s NFL Draft. Twice. That enabled the Patriots to secure both Asiasi and Dalton Keane. While either rookie could emerge as the team’s TE1, Asiasi should become New England’s first genuine weapon at tight end during the post-Gronkowski era.

The 6-3, 257-pound Asiasi has reliable hands and possesses the ability to accrue yardage after each catch. This propelled him to 789 yards during his collegiate career, including the 641 that assembled in 2019. He also captured 44 of his 70 targets last season, while producing four touchdowns.

Highest-graded NFL rookie TEs

1. Adam Trautman, Dayton - 94.2
2. Harrison Bryant. FAU - 92.5
3. Devin Asiasi, UCLA - 79.0
4. Hunter Bryant, Washington - 74.8 pic.twitter.com/e5eACJRRR0

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 16, 2020

Matt LaCosse's decision to opt-out has solidified Asiasi's status atop a depth chart that is comprised of fellow newcomer Keane, and Ryan Izzo - who was limited to 114 yards during 2019. New England only targeted tight ends on a league-low 9% of their passes last season. However, the Patriots have reconstructed their attack, including a critical overhaul under center.

Former NFL MVP Cam Newton should commandeer the starting role if he eludes further health issues. None of the Patriots’ primary weapons at wide receiver are being selected before Round 7, as 34-year old Julian Edelman’s 2019 target total (153) will decline following the departure of Tom Brady. N’Keal Harry remains unproven at the professional level, as he attempts to rebound from his forgettable first year (12 receptions/105 receptions). Former Falcon Mohamed Sanu collected 14 targets and 81 yards in Week 9, but a high-ankle sprain constrained his numbers during the team’s final eight games (4.7 targets/17.1 yards per game).

The unimposing nature of New England’s current receiving arsenal will bolster Asiasi’s chances of attaining an ongoing role within the Patriot passing attack. He is available near the completion of your drafts, and selecting him as your TE3 presents minimal risk. The structure of Best-Best scoring should also reduce any trepidation about depending on a first-year tight end. 

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