The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 8)

Welcome to the homestretch. The past week seems to have reversed some of the trends and shifts that we were seeing earlier in the season. Edwin Encarnacion appears resurgent. Brandon Lowe looks like he is scuffling. And Tommy Pham might be coming back. The first two are more complex than they seem, but if Pham returns, it would be one of the most enigmatic parts of an already unpredictable season.

If it happens, the early return could not be more on-brand for Tommy Pham. I don't know of any other player with a more pronounced reputation as a driven athlete who so consistently exceeds expectations. I've thrown him into the ranks, but only at a $1 until we know more. If you have bench space, you could stash him, but keep in mind that we're talking about 11 or 12 games at the maximum. If the news solidifies, consider him a $10 player from now until the rest of the season.

Please remember that the schedule is now having an outsized impact on projected player values. The discrepancy is altering player ranks and causing some disconcerting changes in projected values. If you see a player who has had a bad stretch but an increase in projected value, it's probably tied to their number of remaining games relative to the rest of the league. With that out of the way,  here are the Baller Ranks Top-200 hitters and the Week 8 Meta Report. If you're unfamiliar with the Meta Report, here's a quick guide on what it is and how to read it. And if you missed Nick Mariano's pitcher rankings yesterday, here are his top 101 relievers and his top 101 starters.

Week 8 Hitter Rankings

Key Rankings Movers

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Phillies)

There were some brutal stretches for Hoskins earlier in the season and some hard talk from fantasy managers about whether he was overdrafted based on erratic success.

Through his first 19 games, Hoskins hit .214 with 1 HR, 13 runs, 6 RBI, and a .760 OPS. For those 19 games, Hoskins ranked 421^st in value. Since then, the Phillies have played another 19 games, and Hoskins has hit .289 with 8 HR, 18 R, 16 RBI, and a 1.071 OPS. During that stretch, he has been the 11^th most valuable player in fantasy baseball.

Which one is the true Rhys Hoskins? Yes.

Here's where it gets worse. Hoskins' numbers looked fundamentally similar to last season. His Hard-Hit rate was down, as was his max exit velocity, but most of the batted ball data made him look like the same player.

We should have been able to see the truth in Hoskins' xwOBA. During those first 19 games, Hoskins' xwOBA was .406. In the second set, it has been .409, so why has Hoskins' performance been so erratic? Some of it is the small and over-weighted nature of this season's sampling. Some of it is also because of Hoskins' approach at the plate. While the Phillies' first baseman has always been a patient hitter, he owns a 23.4° launch angle. Hoskins' swing plane is steep enough that it leaves him subject to truly horrific luck with pop-ups and ground outs. During that initial stretch of futility, Hoskins owned a 40.5% fly-ball rate, which should be a positive, but it was compounded by a 23.5% infield-flyball rate and a 30.9% ground ball rate. Simply put, while Hoskins' aggressive launch angle allows him to generate ample home runs, it also leaves him subject to the type of batted-ball luck that prompts fantasy managers wondering if he's even ownable.

With Hoskins, managers are left with a player who has earned his spot and who looks like a good bet to finish the season as a top-10 first baseman. However, as those two stretches show us, the floor and ceiling are about as far apart as they can possibly be.

Kyle Tucker (OF, Astros)

The young Astros outfielder has done something that has thwarted so many rookies before him: he has played his way through the Dusty-Baker-Wall-of-Veteran-Experience.

Despite concerns about playing time, Tucker has been showcasing the type of 20-20 skills that have made him a blue-chip prospect. With his recent surge, Tucker has provided 8 home runs, 30 runs, 37 RBI, and 5 stolen bases with a .272 average. In fact, if we combine Tucker's 2019 and 2020 numbers, he is on a 162-game pace for 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases.

What's more, the underlying stats support Tucker's performance so far. His barrel rate (11.8%), exit velocity (91 MPH), hard-hit rate (45.4%), and xSLG (.540) are all in the top 25% of the league.

Tucker's hit tool and power are complemented by his five steals and effective speed. Add Tucker's 2019 audition to this year, and he has 10 steals in 64 games without having been caught once. That efficiency will ensure that the Astros keep letting him run.

The combination pushes his value up to the top-40 hitters, and we're getting to see his ceiling right now. Certainly, the talent is there to become a top-10 offensive threat, and Tucker's track record gives us a real reason to believe.

Brandon Lowe (2B, Rays)

Lowe offers us an example of the anti-Hoskins. Lowe's prospect pedigree and hot start made him a darling for managers, and he looked like the type of breakout player that helps win leagues. Over the last two weeks, however, he's struggled to produce. The dry stretch and Lowe's relative age have been forcing managers to re-evaluate his first-month success.

Fortunately, while the projections and production have faded a bit, there is good reason to be optimistic that he'll continue to be a top-ten second baseman from here forward. Even during this slump, Lowe has continued to barrel the ball at a 12.9% rate. His launch angle is still a healthy 15.1°, and on Monday night, he smacked a ball at 109.6 MPH, his highest exit velocity this season.

Lowe may need to make critical adjustments to rebound, but the situation doesn't look dire. His strikeout rate is up to 32.1% over his last 50 at-bats, but his chase rate, swinging-strike rate, and contact rates are relatively stable.

Over 165 MLB games, Brandon Lowe has given us a 126 wRC+, and there's nothing in the recent sample to make us doubt that level of performance.

Dylan Moore (OF, Mariners)

In his five games since returning from the IL, Moore has hit one home run and two doubles, scored four times, driven in four runs, and stolen three bases.

It's hard to believe in a breakout like this from a 28-year-old who was relatively unheralded as a prospect, but Moore has shown useful power and become the type of cheap speedster that many fantasy owners bank on. Moore's six home runs and nine steals have allowed him to score 20 times despite missing that two-week stretch.

In games, Moore shows the type of tools that made him an above-average offensive player at nearly every stop in the minors. In 2016, he averaged a 134 wRC+ in A ball. In 2017, he struggled at AA, but in 2018, he posted a 131 at AA and AAA. Looking at his numbers more carefully, it seems the only reason to dismiss Moore's MiLB track record was his age and lack of pedigree. While player age does have a clear relationship to overall outcomes, Moore seems a good bet to continue outperforming his current projections.

Moreover, Moore looks like a different, better player than he did last year. We have improvements in his max exit velocity (a key indicator in adjusting our projections for small samples), his barrel rate (up from 6.5% to 13.6%), and his hard-hit rate (36.1% to 43.9%).

Moore is right on the verge of getting caught stealing a bit too much (9 for 12), but the Mariners seem content to let him run for now. The $4.5 value is under Kolten Wong, Jeff McNeil, and Jake Cronenworth, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Moore outproduce all of them.

Speed Round

Justin Upton (OF, Angels) The reports of Justin Upton's demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'm guilty of having dropped Upton outside my top-150. Without full playing time, it was impossible to project him for meaningful value the rest of the way. He hasn't returned to everyday player status, but Joe Maddon is getting him onto the field often enough that he should be useful for players in need of outfield help.

Edwin Encarnacion (DH, White Sox) A part of me wants to write that Encarnacion does this to us every year, but there are still real signs of trouble for EE. While he's continued to slug homers, he's struggled to do much else. I know, I know, Joey Gallo, but Encarnacion is in a different territory. Even with his elite 16.9% barrel rate, Encarnacion's xBA is only .179. Compare that number to his .248 from 2019 or .246 from 2018. Moreover, his hard-hit rate has fallen to 29.6%. Those numbers haven't gotten dramatically better over his recent power surge. Like Upton, Encarnacion should offer some value, but based on his current batted-ball data, it's a limited ceiling with absolutely no floor.

Gary Sanchez (C, Yankees) Sanchez's strikeout rate has spiked so much that I had to go and check that the data was right. It's uncommon to see this level of collapse from a batter, even one like Sanchez, whose plate approach can be problematic. In this case, we're talking about a hitter with a batting average at .125 and a 41.5% strikeout rate. Granted, Sanchez's BABIP is also .125, his barrel rate is 18.2%, and his hard-hit rate is 49.1%. The whole Yankees' organization is in some type of funk right now, and you have to figure they will come out of it, but this is…not good. The projections put Sanchez as closer to a $9-10 value, but that seems optimistic based on the indicators from our most stable data so far this season.