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Welcome, RotoBallers. There is plenty of injury news to monitor today as we move closer to lock: LeBron James is out, Anthony Davis is questionable, Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, and Isaiah Joe are out, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones are questionable, D'Angelo Russell is questionable, and Michael Porter Jr. has been ruled out. Taking a quick peak at the K-Rate models, the Hornets-Lakers and Suns-Kings games look to be the best environments to target for DFS production as they project to be high-scoring, fast-paced, and lacking defense. The Wolves-Grizzlies game is also appealing as there are plenty of value options available on each side, and a few studs to consider in Ant and KAT. The Heat-Nuggets game looks like a brutal one to target, but I'll never talk anyone off of Nikola Jokic and a few Nuggets could stand to benefit from MPJ's absence.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 11/8/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings Overview - NBA DFS Matchups
This is how the games, teams, and positional matchups shake out for tonight's slate. "K-Rate" is a metric that includes implied totals, projected pace, fantasy points against, and defensive ratings. The higher the number - the more attackable the game/opponent is for DFS purposes.
DraftKings Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
LaMelo Ball - PG, CHA vs. LAL ($9,000)
Hornets' PG's have the top positional advantage on the board tonight against the shorthanded Lakers. The Lakers are allowing the most FPPG to opposing PG's and the eighth-most FPPG to opposing SG's. Most teams have played 10 or 11 games, so we're close to not being able to use the "small sample size" counter-argument any longer. Ball has had a bit of an issue with foul trouble and that has held him back from being a consistent DFS stud, but he has exceeded what he'd need for 5x value tonight in three of his last five games (including at least 52 DK points in two of those games). He holds a team-leading 27.9% usage rate and 1.41 FPTS/min this season with P.J. Washington off the floor, and again, the matchup literally can't get any better than it is tonight.
Note: if Anthony Davis is ruled out, fire up all of the Russell Westbrook.
Anthony Edwards - SG, MIN vs. MEM ($8,000)
There are plenty of Memphis pieces that are appealing at their DraftKings prices tonight, but what about the runback options on Minnesota? The Grizzlies were just leapfrogged by the Hornets but they still hold the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA, and as we can see by the "Positional K-Rate" model above, they're very susceptible to giving up fantasy production at the SF spot. Edwards plays a bit of a hybrid SG/SF and he leads the team in usage rate (30.5%) with the second-highest FPTS/min rate (1.14). This play becomes even more interesting if D'Angelo Russell were to be ruled out - Ant's rates jump to a 33.3% usage rate and 1.18 FPTS/min in those scenarios this season.
Kelly Oubre Jr. - SG/SF, CHA vs. LAL ($4,400)
Oubre's minutes and production have been all over the place in the early goings - he's playing anywhere from 13 minutes to 43 minutes and has ranged from 1.75 DK points to 48.75 DK points. However, he played 28 minutes and scored 27.5 DK points last time out, and P.J. Washington missing another game sets up Oubre for another value-smashing opportunity tonight. He holds a 20.2% usage rate and 0.86 FPTS/min rate overall this season and he's going to be valuable as long as he gets minutes in the upper-20's again tonight.
Others to consider: Alex Caruso ($4,200), Ja Morant ($9,100), Bones Hyland ($3,000), Joe Harris ($4,200), Cameron Payne ($3,000), Cody Martin ($3,600), Furkan Korkmaz ($4,900)
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DraftKings Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. - PF/C, MEM vs. MIN ($5,800)
He's going to be chalky, but there's no getting past the fact that JJJ is underpriced and in a great spot to produce tonight. As you can tell from the "Positional K-Rate" chart above, Grizzlies' PF's are one of the top matchup spots to attack on this slate as the Wolves have (again) been among the league's worst at defending bigs. Jackson hasn't been dominant this season as he's averaging just 1.07 FPTS/min this year, but he holds a high 25.3% usage rate and he gets the aforementioned matchup boost tonight.
Frank Kaminsky - PF/C, PHO vs. SAC ($4,300)
Frank the Tank doesn't have the most secure minutes projection in the world, but he's still priced in the value range and can definitely be useful in lineups tonight. He has crushed value in the last two games without center Deandre Ayton, going for 32 and 35.25 DK points and clocking over 28 minutes in both games. There's no reason we shouldn't be expecting 25 minutes or more tonight against the Kings, a team that's allowing the second-most FPPG to opposing centers this season. The Suns haven't generally run Kaminsky and McGee in the same lineups together, so when he's out there, he's serving as the team's de-facto center. JaVale McGee is worth a look for the same reasons.
Kristaps Porzingis - PF, DAL vs. NOP ($6,700)
This is just too cheap for KP in this spot and he makes for a great mid-range option tonight. He put up 38.25 DK points in just 28 minutes in his return to action on Saturday, and that was against a Celtics team that ranks 12th in defensive rating overall. The Pelicans rank third-to-last in the same metric. While this doesn't project as a high-scoring game and both teams slow the pace down quite a bit, the lack of defense and Porz's recent form and current price have me on the Unicorn tonight.
Others to consider: Mikal Bridges ($5,200), Kyle Anderson ($4,700), Jaden McDaniels ($3,100), Duncan Robinson ($3,800), Jeff Green ($3,000), Moe Harkless ($3,300), Paul Reed ($3,300), Danny Green ($3,800)
DraftKings Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Andre Drummond - C, PHI vs. NYK ($5,700)
This isn't an extremely appealing game environment as it has a low implied total, slow projected pace, and solid defenses on both sides. That being said, we can still pick out pieces from this game as both Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid have been ruled out. Drummond has notoriously crushed in spot starts so far this season, most recently going for 56.75 DK points over 34 minutes against the Blazers on 11/1. He holds a team-leading 1.36 FPTS/min rate with the two stars off the floor, and his usage rate shoots up to 20.3%. He certainly won't be the only Sixer to consider tonight, but he's probably the safest, the easiest to project, and holds the highest ceiling.
Others to consider: Steven Adams ($4,500), Jonas Valanciunas ($8,500), Richaun Holmes ($7,200), Mason Plumlee ($5,200)
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