Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 14

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Week 14 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 14. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 14 Picks

Russell Wilson - NYJ @ SEA ($7,900)

For years we've begged the Seahawks to #LetRussCook. For the first nine weeks of the season it happened, as Wilson was grilling steaks on an open flame, but over the last four weeks it's been more like a TV dinner warmed up in the microwave. Russ has averaged just 16.1 DK Points per game since Week 10, though we should consider that he's played four tough defenses - Rams, Cards, Eagles, & Giants - during that stretch. This week he gets a chance to fire the grill back up against the New York Jets, a defense that ranks bottom-five in the NFL in DK Points, passing yards, passing TDs, and yards per attempt allowed to the QB position.

Justin Herbert - ATL @ LAC ($6,800)

Justin Herbert received a genuine “Welcome to the NFL, rookie!” moment courtesy of Bill Belichick last week. The Sith Lord of New England humbled LA’s first-year QB by holding Herbert to his worst performance to date, in what’s been an otherwise-spectacular rookie campaign. It was just the second time that Herbert's been held under 20 DK Points this season and snapped his two-game streak of 300-plus passing yards. 

Herbert will have a chance to get back on track this week against an Atlanta pass defense that - while improved since Dan Quinn’s firing - remains a matchup worth targeting. The Falcons rank dead last in the NFL in DK Points allowed to the QB position and are relinquishing the second-highest yards per attempt (8.06) in the league. With a tight point spread and an O/U that's hovering around 50, this expected game environment provides an excellent rebound opportunity for Herbert. 

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

I say this every week, but Patrick Mahomes is always in play, even in a less-than-stellar matchup against Miami. Aaron Rodgers draws a smash matchup against Detroit, but it's fair to be concerned about how much he will have to throw against the hapless Lions...the same can be said for Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill, a player in a great spot against Jacksonville, but that plays on an offense that will most likely be content to let Derrick Henry carry the load. As we get deeper into the week, I like Kirk Cousins more and more, as it feels like Minnesota will be forced to throw in this one. In the "So Gross That It Might Work" category, Jets QB Sam Darnold does have sneaky upside against a Seattle secondary that - despite looking better as of late - has bled points to opposing passing attacks. I would have a little more interest in Philly's Jalen Hurts if he weren't playing such a capable Saints Defense...this Philly offense has lots of issues, and those issues start with the offensive line.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 14 Picks

Derrick Henry - TEN @ JAX ($8,700)

Of course, Derrick Henry busted as the expensive chalk last week against Cleveland, posting just 6.9 DK Points in a game that the Titans trailed throughout. While he's obviously an elite talent, it’s not a huge surprise, as Henry is the very definition of a “yardage and touchdown” back. His lack of receiving work severely lowers his DFS floor and his ability to disappoint becomes especially noticeable on the occasions when Tennessee gets in negative game script situations. 

That shouldn’t be an issue this week, as the Titans are set to square off against a 1-11 Jacksonville Jaguars team that has struggled in every facet of the game this year. The Jags have been especially bad at slowing down opposing RBs, allowing the fourth-most DK Points in the NFL to the RB position this season. This matchup is a beautiful bounce-back spot for Henry after last week’s disappointing outing.

Aaron Jones - GB @ DET ($7,600)

Aaron Jones carries a DFS floor that’s a little lower than backs that we would deem “elite”, but his “ceiling” is ridiculous. Jones has a chance to demonstrate that explosive upside this week against a woeful Lions unit that he’s already torched once this year and is on the heels of allowing David Montgomery to go for 27.1 DK Points in Week 13. Montgomery’s outburst was just the latest in a long line of huge RB performances against Detroit this season. The Lions have allowed the second-most DK Points in the NFL to the RB position and relinquished 48.6 DK Points to Jones in Week 2.

David Montgomery - HOU @ CHI ($6,500)

This is a portion of what I wrote about David Montgomery in this article last week ahead of his matchup against Detroit:

Listen, there's no need to beat around the bush, David Montgomery isn't good. If you watch tape this isn't a secret. However, he's pretty much all the Bears have...which sometimes makes him a viable, volume-driven DFS option... 

So...while we might not be crazy about Montgomery's talent level, the combination of his consistent workload and this matchup makes him an intriguing salary saver.

Montgomery went on to score 27.1 DK Points against the Lions last week. We can basically roll that thought process over to Week 14, as he’s set to take on a Houston Texans run defense that - somehow - might be even worse than Detroit’s. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in DK Points and yards per carry (a MASSIVE 5.19) allowed to the RB position. The volume is there. The matchup is there. I’ll once again be there, despite his $1k price bump this week.

J.D. McKissic - WAS @ SF ($4,900)

With Antonio Gibson looking extremely doubtful for Week 14, Washington's J.D. McKissic immediately becomes one of the best value plays on the Main Slate. He'll be popular, but it's with good reason. We can expect McKissic to share some groundwork with Peyton Barber, while also gobbling up the entirety of the pass-game work for WFT. The "Checkdown Gawd" Alex Smith targeted McKissic 10 (!) times last week, which marked the third game this season he's received double-digit targets. That profile suits this matchup well, as San Francisco is tough on the ground, but ranks 25th in the NFL in yards per target (6.24) allowed to the RB position. Barber's presence does put a slight dent in McKissic's upside (I expect Barber to get any goal line carries), but his receiving role - mixed with an expected increase in total carries - gives him a tremendous DFS floor at this price.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Dalvin Cook sits atop the salary scale, but has a brutal matchup against the Bucs and their NFL-best run defense. It would be extremely contrarian to roster Cook this week...he's a "bet on his talent to gain GPP leverage" play. James Robinson and Austin Ekeler both bring high usage to the table. Both Ezekiel Elliott and D'Andre Swift are very intriguing pivot options away from a getting-chalky-as-the-week-progresses David Montgomery. Jonathan Taylor's workload is tough to trust, but he sticks out as a nice against-the-grain play against a soft Raiders run defense.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 14 Picks

Justin Jefferson - MIN @ TB ($7,400) 

I think this is the third-straight week that we've discussed a Minnesota receiver in this article, but I'm willing to continue riding the Vikes pass-catching corps in the form of their rookie breakout-star Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has been a revelation for the Minny offense as of late, averaging 24.6 DK Points over their last four games.

This week Jefferson is set to square off against a Tampa Bay defense that we consider a good unit, but the Bucs secondary is probably more exploitable than it appears at first glance. Tampa is undoubtedly a "funnel defense", with a run-stopping front that ranks first in Rush Defense DVOA, consistently forcing teams to the air against them. We've seen opposing wideouts take advantage of this Bucs secondary as of late, with Tyreek Hill's ridiculous 60.9 DK-Point outburst coming two weeks ago, while LA's Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp combined for 61.6 DK Points against them last week. Several factors might combine to depress Jefferson's ownership this week (his higher price tag, boom/bust nature, and a matchup that's perceived as tough), but he sticks out as a tremendous, high-upside GPP option.

Allen Robinson II - HOU @ CHI ($6,800) 

I guess I've somehow reached the point of the season where I'm highlighting two Chicago Bears...2020 amirite? Obviously, the Bears aren’t an offensive juggernaut in a vacuum, but like Chicago’s David Montgomery, Allen Robinson has both reliable volume in this concentrated-usage offense and a juicy matchup against a Houston secondary that’s been lost without Bradley Roby. In Roby's absence, Robinson will see tons of journeyman Vernon Hargreaves, who PFF grades as the second-worst cornerback that is expected to start in Week 14.

Unlike Montgomery, Robinson’s talent level is inarguable, though he’s unfortunately been cursed by the football gods with horrid QBs throughout his career. The curse still lingers, as Robinson has been forced to slog through this season with a combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles. It will be the former that starts Week 14, but even with Trubisky’s deficiencies, Robinson has managed to combine for 40.9 DK Points over Chicago’s last two games with him at the helm.

Jamison Crowder - NYJ @ SEA ($5,400)

Since they’ve faced a broken Philadelphia offense and a Giants passing attack led by Colt McCoy over the last two weeks, it’s kinda easy to forget just how bad this Seattle secondary has been this year. So even though they’ve looked somewhat solid over the last couple of weeks, let me remind you that the Seahawks have allowed both the most receiving yards and the most DK Points in the NFL to the WR position. 

Jamison Crowder has fought through injuries this season and (mostly) floundered in Sam Darnold’s absence, but he posted 21.7 DK Points with Darnold at the helm last week against the Raiders. In the four games that Darnold and Crowder have been on the field together this season Crowder has been targeted 35 times, catching 22 passes for 297 yards and 3 TDs.

Brandon Aiyuk - WAS @ SF ($5,400)

Obviously we want to target great matchups in DFS, but there are some situations where I will go against the grain in GPPs. That's where I find myself with San Fran's Brandon Aiyuk this week. The rookie's matchup against a Washington unit that ranks third in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA is undoubtedly very difficult, but I'm intrigued with Aiyuk nonetheless, as a "bet on talent and volume" discount play at just $5.4k. When he's been able to get on the field, he's (somehow) been a consistent producer for this snake-bitten Niners offense. Aiyuk has been targeted a massive 40 times over his last four starts, which has resulted in an average of 20.95 DK Points per game over those four. There's certainly a chance that the rookie fails in this spot, but he's an interesting calculated risk to take in large-field tournaments.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Like Patrick Mahomes at the QB position, Davante Adams stands out as an "always in consideration" piece at WR, though his huge price tag demands a monster score. The same can be said for Mahomes' KC running mate Tyreek Hill.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 14 Picks

Travis Kelce - KC @ MIA ($7,400)

The matchup against Miami isn't a good one - the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-fewest DK Points in the NFL to the TE position - but Travis Kelce has consistently proved that he's matchup proof. Kelce leads the NFL in every meaningful TE stat and is a key piece on the NFL's best offense. The TE position has routinely been a difficult one from a DFS perspective this season, which immediately puts Kelce into serious consideration any time that he's available on the Main Slate.

Hunter Henry - ATL @ LAC ($4,400)

Another juicy bounce-back option from this Chargers offense is Hunter Henry. At $4.4k he draws a dream matchup against a Falcons unit that is allowing a league-high 80.7% catch rate to opposing TEs and ranks 27th in the NFL in DK Points relinquished to the position.

It sets up as a great spot for Henry, a player that - before last week's debacle against New England - had been targeted six or more times in four-straight games. His 11 Red Zone targets this season trail only Keenan Allen's 13 for the most on the team. That Red Zone role, along with the locked-in overall volume and tremendous matchup, makes Henry a high-upside option at a position that's been tough to peg for the majority of the year.

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