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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! I hope 2022 got off to a good start for you last weekend! The Week 17 edition of this article featured some huge hits - Joe Burrow - and some embarrassing misses - Jaylen Waddle. Unfortunately, we can also expect some volatility in Week 18, as the last week of the regular season always makes for a somewhat unpredictable DFS slate.
Week 18 is a slate unlike any other for NFL DFS grinders. Obviously, we're focused on finding the sharpest options for our lineups, but we're also forced to be mindful of several other variables in the last week of the NFL's regular season. What are a team's motivations this week? Are they out of the playoff picture? Locked into a seed? Playing to win a division title or home-field advantage? Resting starters? It can all be very confusing. However, those of you that are brave enough to tackle this slate - and bright enough to research all the possible scenarios - could be handsomely rewarded with a huge DFS win!
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 18. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 18 DFS Picks
Josh Allen - NYJ @ BUF ($8,100)
On a slate filled with question marks, there are no doubts surrounding Josh Allen this week. The Bills are fighting for both the AFC East title and to ensure a home game in the first round of the NFL Playoffs. As a result, we can expect an all-out effort from Josh Allen and this high-powered Buffalo offense that has scored 27 or more points in each of their last four games.
Though they've shown some moxie down the stretch, the New York Jets will simply be outgunned in this matchup. Allen threw for 366 yards and two scores when these teams met in Week 10. Gang Green has allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this season and stands just 31st in the league in Pass Defense DVOA.
Kyler Murray - SEA @ ARI ($7,400)
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are another squad that has a lot to play for this week. Arizona still has a chance to capture the NFC West division crown with a victory against Seattle and a Rams loss to the Niners.
The team's offense - and their playoff aspirations - rests on the shoulders of Kyler Murray. Murray kicked off the season on a tear but has been working his way back from a multiple-week layoff in recent outings. This sets up as a true breakout for Murray, as he'll face a struggling Seattle defense that stands just 27th in Pass Defense DVOA and has allowed the second-most passing yards in the league. His elite improvisational skills and rushing ability give him one of the best DFS floors on the slate, while this plus matchup against the Seahawks in a domed environment means a legitimate slate-breaking type of score is well within reach for Murray.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 18 DFS Picks
Jonathan Taylor - IND @ JAX ($9,300)
The Indianapolis Colts face a classic "win and in" situation this week against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. We can expect the Colts to rely on their superstar, Jonathan Taylor, heavily in this spot. Indy has leaned on Taylor in a big way down the stretch this season, as he's averaged an eye-popping 25.28 rushing attempts per game since Week 10. It will be more of the same this week, as the Colts will look to take advantage of a Jags defense that is simply trying to get their dumpster-fire of a season over with at this point, with Taylor and a rushing attack that is the top-ranked DVOA unit in the NFL.
Sony Michel - SF @ LAR ($6,000)
Sony Michel comes into Week 18 with a season-high $6k price tag on DraftKings. However, it still feels too cheap for a player that was on the field for 98% of L.A.'s offensive snaps last week against Baltimore, a game in which he saw 24 total opportunities and accumulated 99 total yards with a score.
With Darrell Henderson Jr. on IR and Cam Akers being eased by from a significant Achilles injury, Michel will once again be the workhorse in the Rams backfield for this pivotal Week 18 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. L.A. can clinch both a division title and a No. 2 spot in the playoffs with a win this week. While the matchup against a tough Niners defensive front is a difficult one, Michel's expected volume in this explosive Rams offense gives him a very nice combination of DFS floor and ceiling.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 18 DFS Picks
A.J. Brown - TEN @ HOU ($7,000)
Motivation and matchup. A.J. Brown has both in his favor this week, as the Titans need a win to clinch a No. 1 and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This will put them in "must-win mode" against the Houston Texans. The Texans are relinquishing a massive average of 8.78 yards per target to the WR position this season and their 2,669 passing yards allowed ranks them 27th in the NFL.
Since returning from an extended absence in Week 16, Browns boasts an elite aDOT of 14.68 and leads the NFL in team target share by demanding a ridiculous 40.6% of the targets in this Titans passing attack. His DFS floor is scary low, but Brown has crossed the 30 DK-point threshold three times this season and unquestionably possesses tournament-winning upside.
Christian Kirk - SEA @ ARI ($6,000)
We've already touched on Arizona's motivations this week while discussing Kyler Murray, so we'll zoom in on Christian Kirk specifically here. Since DeAndre Hopkins landed on IR three weeks ago, Kirk has been the unquestioned alpha in this Cardinals receiving corps. He's received target counts of nine, nine, and 12 over Arizona's last three and has produced an average of 7.3 catches and 73.6 yards per game. He'll square off against a Seattle secondary that ranks just 27th in Pass Defense DVOA and was recently scorched by rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Detroit Lions in Week 17.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 18 DFS Picks
George Kittle - SF @ LAR ($6,700)
This one is dependant on the health of the Niners' QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Assuming he's a go, George Kittle would be a priority play at the always-tricky TE position. San Fran's playoff situation is basically a "win and in" one. For this reason, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Niners fully unleash the often-underutilized Kittle.
Volume has equaled production for Kittle. He's only been targeted more than eight times in five games this season, but over those five, he's posted three games of 30 or more DK points. Bottom line...if the Niners target him in this one, there's a strong chance that he can post a score that could truly separate him from the other TEs on the slate.
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