RADIO
I usually don't hold back my feelings towards Tuesday. It's honestly the worst workday of the week, and yet it gets away with little to no scrutiny - especially compared to the (deserved) beatings Monday takes. Once Summer rolls in, though, and the major league baseball season is in full swing, Tuesdays vastly improve. Tuesdays in the summer time represent a new baseball series, rested players, aces on the mound and a full slate of games - which of course means we can spend more time strategizing on our lineups and less time worrying about ownership percentages in tournaments.
Tonight is a summer time Tuesday, and we have a packed slate of 15 games that includes a number of aces on the bump, old rivalries renewed and a Coors matchup between two pretty powerful offenses. It should be a fun Tuesday is what I'm trying to say.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/06/2017. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays. Let's dance.
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Vegas Lines
Before we jump into my picks at each position, I like to talk a little Vegas. The lines can be helpful when deciding what strategy you'd like to deploy - particularly in choosing pitchers and stacks. First let's start with run total projections, as we have a few north of five - which is my Mendoza line, so to speak - as I use it as the cutoff point to determine elite versus 'rest of the field'.
Not surprisingly, the Indians and Rockies, who both are playing at Coors Field tonight, are north of five, but as are two of my favorite teams to stack in the Mets and the Tigers, who have totals at 5.1 and 5.3 respectively. I also want to call out the Diamondbacks and Mariners, who both, despite playing tonight in what are usually considered pitchers parks, happen to have run projections of 5.1. As for moneyline favorites, Vegas is backing the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Tigers most heavily.
Offensive Stacks
Seattle Mariners versus Hector Santiago
Hector Santiago has been awful in his last few starts and the boys in Vegas don't see it getting better for him any time in the next 12 hours or so. In his last three starts, the veteran starter has allowed an opponent wOBA over .400 and an ISO of .360. Those are incredibly attractive figures and they'll equate to me having plenty of Seattle shares tonight. This Seattle lineup has more than just a juicy matchup, though. They check the 'split boxes' well, as they have two hitters with ISO splits well above .200 - Nelson Cruz and Ben Gamel - and a number of others floating just below .200. They also have five hitters with hard hit rates above 40% over the past two weeks - a number I rarely see across more than half of a team's lineup.
Detroit Tigers versus Jesse Chavez
This Tigers run projection keeps creeping up higher and my interest in them is strongly correlated with that climbing number. The Tigers haven't been one of my favorite stacks all season and the only negative thing I can think of tonight in regard to a Detroit stack is that I think they'll be wildly popular. Nonetheless, this team that owns the highest hard hit rate in all of baseball has a great matchup against the ever home-run-prone Jesse Chavez. Chavez has allowed a .200 ISO over his last three starts and guys like Alex Avila, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera should be able to feast on said pitching. Oh, and all of the aforementioned Tigers hitters own ISO splits north of .200 for the year.
Also Consider: Cleveland Indians versus Antonio Senzatela
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
James Paxton - SP, vs MIN ($9,300)
Believe it or not, I don't think you have to go with Scherzer tonight in cash games if you pair a powerful lineup with Mr. James Paxton. Paxton has been excellent in his return from the DL, posting a few games with more than 40 FanDuel points already in just a handful of starts. He's done a stellar job keeping the ball in the park (0.3 HR/9) and he's striking out batters at a near All-Star rate (9.1 K/9). Tonight, he's home in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the game and happens to be the biggest moneyline favorite of the day (well, he and his Mariners teammates, who are currently -209 on the moneyline). In addition to all that, he's got excellent Statcast data over his last three starts, marked by a 15% hard hit rate and an average batted ball distance of just 177 feet.
Chris Archer - SP, vs CWS ($10,700)
Archer is a favorite of mine but I promise little to no bias is influencing this decision. Not only has he been a strong performer in five of his last seven starts, he also has a great matchup tonight against a White Sox lineup that is striking out in 28% of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching this season and has a collective wOBA of just around .280. For the year, Archer has done an improved job of keeping the ball in the yard (1.03 HR/9) and his strikeout figures are fantastic (10.8 K/9). With the elevated strikeout projection I have for Archer tonight, he's pretty optimal for tournaments.
Also Consider: Robbie Ray - SP, vs SD ($10,000)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Alex Avila - C, vs LAA ($3,000)
Alex Avila, above-average hitter seems like a presence that is here to stay. I keep thinking he's going to come down from this cloud, but the backstop keeps producing at a strong rate. He's been getting great lineup order value - particularly for a catcher - and tonight that position looks more attractive as the Tigers currently have the second highest run projection, meaning Avila should have a few opportunities to drive runs in and be driven in. On top of that, he faces a subpar pitcher and owns an excellent .414 wOBA split this season.
Kendrys Morales - 1B, at OAK ($3,400)
Morales has been smoking the ball these past two weeks (45% hard hit rate) but only has the fantasy results to show for it last week, as he's had a run of bad batted ball luck this week. I think that bad luck run ends tonight, as the slugging first baseman has a really opportune matchup and strong splits (.363 wOBA, .241 ISO) to go with it. In his last three starts, opposing starter Jesse Hahn has allowed an opponent wOBA over .500 and an ISO of .250.
Jason Kipnis - 2B, at COL ($4,100)
It would be a little bit of a stretch to say Kipnis is hot right now, but the bat certainly isn't cold anymore. He got off to a slow start this season, which was likely due to the lingering injury, but his production is starting to come in bunches and he's hit three home runs in the last 10 days. All things considered, a player of his talents, hitting at the top of the order, facing a pitcher that can easily be picked on and sporting good stats for just $4,100 is somewhat of a bargain. I think he's got the best chance to produce double digit points at the second base position and the .360 wOBA split and .200 ISO are pretty damn strong.
Manny Machado - 3B, vs PIT ($3,800)
It's nice to jump on the Machado train before his price climbs over $4k, and with his bat starting to light up, that time is right now. Machado has hit left-handed pitching and righties pretty evenly this year, posting a solid .325 wOBA and .219 ISO. The numbers are solid, but what I really like about him tonight is this groove he's found and the fact that his hard hit rate and fly ball rates are over 34% and 40%, respectively, over the last two weeks. With the negative park shift and a bevy of similarly priced options, I think Machado will go overlooked tonight, which is ideal for large field tournaments.
Asdrubal Cabrera - SS, at TEX ($2,800)
I have to sneak in some value for you with all the top tier pitching options (see also: expensive) throwing tonight. Cabrera isn't a punt play, though. In fact, he's one of the strongest options at shortstop and just happens to be tagged with a sub 3K price. Cabrera has a good matchup against the overmatched Dillon Gee and owns an ISO split north of .200 to go with a hard hit rate of 35% of the past half-month.
Also Consider: Paul Goldschmidt - 1B, vs SD ($4,600)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Cody Bellinger - OF, vs WAS ($2,800)
For all those opposed with a contrarian selection, moves your eyes down the page. Is going up against Max Scherzer extremely difficult? Yes. Is it possible to hit a ball into the seats in a matchup against him? Certainly. As far as chances to do some damage against an elite pitcher tonight, I like Bellinger's chances. The kid is having a fantastic season and you'll be able to roster him at premium ownership tonight. For the season, he owns a .372 wOBA and .320 ISO splits.
Bryce Harper - OF, at LAD ($4,800)
Harper is pretty fresh off his suspension and tonight is the night we see the "I'm back!' game, me thinks. Harper is sporting a 35% hard hit rate over the last two weeks, and while that isn't otherworldly, it's strong and he also does a great job of getting the ball in the air, as told by the 45% flyball rate. That, paired with his .226 ISO split should equate to some big hits this evening.
Michael Conforto - OF, at TEX ($4,000)
Conforto and the rest of his Mets teammates have been knocking the laces off the ball and that trend won't be stopping this evening. Dillon Gee is quite over-matched in this one, and I love Conforto's pair of a 40% hard hit rate and a .248 ISO split in the leadoff position.
Also Consider: Khris Davis - OF, vs TOR ($3,500)
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