RADIO
Joaquin Niemann found the winners circle for the first time in his young career, shooting a final-round six-under 64 during his six-shot runaway victory. Niemann has been trending towards this result since storming onto the scenes in 2018, but the 20-year-old was finally able to breakthrough at The Greenbrier and etch his name into the record books.
Not only does the fall portion of the season provide us with betting opportunities to find value, but it gives players on the PGA Tour a chance to create career progression for themselves. It has become a common theme in recent years for the young guns on tour to find success before the new year officially rolls around, and the confidence that they are able to build during these events can help transform them to the next level.
This week's Sanderson Farms Championship puts us right back into action, so let's not waste any additional time. Here are some value plays I will be targeting in Mississippi.
2019 Sanderson Farms
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
Country Club of Jackson
7,400 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
A twenty-minute drive north of Jackson, Mississippi, Country Club of Jackson was built in 1962 by Dick Wilson and re-designed by John Fought in 2008.
While measuring in at a whopping 7,400 yards, the venue isn't nearly as long as it appears on paper. The par-fives carry most of the extra yardage, but even though the fairways are relatively wide, thick rough and trees will come into play and make scoring difficult with wayward tee shots.
The course features Bermuda greens with differing sizes, but the surfaces should be receptive. Birdie makers, GIR and putting have been key statistics historically, so golfers will need to get hot if they want to have a chance to compete for the title.
Sanderson Farms Championship
#1 Russell Henley 40/1
DK Price $9,100, FD Price $10,000
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 8.5%
After being a popular selection last weekend at The Greenbrier, Russell Henley disappointed with a final round 73 to drop him into a share of 57th place.
I've written about this in the past with Henley of how he runs hot and cold with his game, but the American appears to be getting back on track with five consecutive made cuts, including a second-place finish at the John Deere Classic in July. Henley's previous 10 tournaments before his recent run featured seven missed cuts and no top-30 results, so there are reasons to be optimistic that the 151st-ranked player in the world can find some form on his best putting surface of Bermuda and continue his quality stretch of golf.
#2 Denny McCarthy 60/1
DK Price $8,900, FD Price $9,900
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 5.9%
If everyone played to their ultimate potential every weekend, tournaments would never be won by anyone outside of the top-10 players in the world. However, aberrational performances can allow a golfer from out of left-field to hoist the trophy if he continues to maintain the typical quality of his game that allows him to compete on tour and increases the area that usually causes him concern.
Denny McCarthy is a world-class putter and birdie maker, yet his inconsistencies off the tee and with his irons have stunted his progression on tour. Last season at this event, the American was able to provide a seventh-place finish, although most of his accumulation of strokes were earned on the greens (10.1). McCarthy isn't the most accurate player off the tee, but the venue has one of the highest GIR percentages on tour, which should allow him to use his pristine flat stick to gain an immense amount of strokes on the field once again. If he is able to add in more consistency with his irons than he is accustomed to having, that is how players steal victories out of nowhere.
#3 Austin Cook 60/1
DK Price $9,000, FD Price $9,900
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 4.0%
Austin Cook has quietly put together 10 of 12 rounds in the 60s during his past three events, which includes a share of 14th place at last week's Greenbrier and a tie for fourth in July's Barbasol Championship.
The 28-year-old contributed a share of 25th place during his last appearance at the Country Club of Jackson and ranks inside the top-30 compared to the field in birdie or better percentage, GIR percentage, driving accuracy and putting between 15 to 20 feet. Cook's price tag on DraftKings is on the higher end at $9,000, but it helps to explain why he is only projected to be four percent owned and makes him an interesting contrarian option to consider in a weak field.
#4 Charley Hoffman 125/1
DK Price $7,500, FD Price $9,000
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 3.7%
I'm willing to take a shot on Charley Hoffman at odds of 125/1 with nobody being ranked inside the top 40 in the world entering the Sanderson Farms Championship. Hoffman has struggled recently on tour with no top-50 results in his previous seven events, but the hope is that the 106th-ranked player in the world has been able to rediscover his game in the past month since teeing it up last.
The American opens the week as the 15th highest-ranked player in the field but just 50th in odds to win the event. In a tournament where I'm not in love with the betting board, this feels like a situation where we can get ahead of the market on a player that has proven to be elite in the past and hope that he is able to get himself back on track. In his past 50 rounds compared to the field at courses ranging over 7,400 yards, Hoffman grades out first in greens in regulation and 10th in birdies or better gained.
#5 D.J. Trahan 200/1
DK Price $6,800, FD Price $8,400
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 5.1%
D.J. Trahan had a strong PGA Tour season in 2019, posting three top-10s and five top-25s in 14 tournaments - earning him $500,000. But the biggest takeaway for him during the year was that he was able to make it through without any injury setbacks.
Trahan has had a long road with one impediment after another, but the 38-year-old finally appears to be healthy and ready to compete again on tour. At 200/1, the 394th-ranked player in the world is priced incorrectly because of his recent injury woes but should be a name you consider in both the outright and top-10 markets.
#6 Stephan Jaeger 300/1 (175/1 First-Round Leader)
DK Price $6,400, FD Price
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 0%
Stephan Jaeger cruised to an eight-under 64 during Monday Qualifying to get himself into this week's Sanderson Farms Championship. Because of the late addition to the field, Jaeger is not currently priced on DFS sites but does exude some upside given his explosive nature. The 30-year-old was the first player to shoot a 58 in Korn Ferry Tour history and has captured four wins, most recently at the 2018 Knoxville Open. Jaeger has made two of three cuts in his career at Country Club of Jackson, including a share of 14th place last season. Consider the German native a bit of a dart throw for those looking for consistent results, but the 336th-ranked player in the world could find himself in contention if he is able to put four rounds together with his putter and is an intriguing selection at 175/1 to end Thursday as the first-round leader.
Key Stats: Birdie or Better Percentage 25%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage 20%, Par-Four Average 20%, Proximity to the Hole From 125-175 & 200+ 20% and Driving Accuracy 15%
50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110
Denny McCarthy $8,900 price tag on DraftKings vs. Martin Laird $8,800 price tag
Denny McCarthy 5.9 percent projected ownership vs. Martin Laird 2.7 percent projected ownership
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 Units
We have very minimal value on the board this weekend when it comes to head-to-head wagers. I usually wouldn't recommend a play that my system was deeming to have only a 2.5% edge in implied probability, but I am a little lower on Martin Laird than my numbers are spitting out.
While Laird did post a seventh-place showing here last season and two additional top-seven results in his previous five events, I am more worried about his past three tournaments than my statistics are revealing. If we only look at Laird's past 12 rounds, he comes in ranked 104th in par-four scoring and 144th in birdies or better gained compared to the field. Those are two areas where I believe golfers will need to find success if they want to stick around for the weekend in Mississippi, and I have a gut feeling Laird disappoints once again and potentially misses the cut.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (16-9-2)
+8.33 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
|
Valero Texas Open |
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MDF (+1) |
MC (+4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Masters |
Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T12 (-8) |
T29 (-4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Wells Fargo Championship |
Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie |
0.75 Units to win 0.90 |
2nd (-12) |
T18 (-5) |
Win |
0.90 |
|
Byron Nelson |
Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+5) |
T59 (-7) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
PGA Championship |
Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+8) |
T54 (+9) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
Memorial Tournament |
Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T62 (+3) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Canadian Open |
Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
-6 (T27) |
Loss |
-1.10 |
|
U.S. Open |
Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy |
1.00 Units to Win 1.60 |
T21 (-2) |
T9 (-5) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
3M Open |
Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T7 (-16) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
John Deere Classic |
Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
MDF (-2) |
T26 (-12) |
Loss |
-1.25 |
|
WGC-St. Jude |
Eddie Pepperell +170 over Keegan Bradley |
.80 Units to Win 1.36 |
T51 (+4) |
T61 (+12) |
Win |
1.36 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66 |
1 |
|
Corey Conners |
Valero Texas Open |
200 |
1 |
|
Rory McIlroy |
Canadian Open |
10 |
1 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
WGC- St. Jude |
12 |
1 |
|
Rory McIlroy |
Tour Championship |
8 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110 |
2 |
|
Dustin Johnson |
Masters |
12 |
2 |
|
Adam Scott |
Memorial |
33 |
2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150 |
3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80 |
3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35 |
3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60 |
3 |
|
Scott Piercy |
RBC Heritage |
150 |
3 |
|
Xander Schaufele |
U.S. Open |
28 |
3 |
|
Tony Finau |
Open Championship |
80 |
3 |
|
Marc Leishman |
WGC- St. Jude |
66 |
3 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
Tour Championship |
6 |
3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60 |
4 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
Byron Nelson |
7 |
4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13 |
5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45 |
5 |
|
Jason Day |
Masters |
40 |
5 |
|
Marc Leishman |
Memorial |
66 |
5 |
|
Kevin Tway |
Travelers |
150 |
5 |
|
Adam Hadwin |
Canadian Open |
70 |
6 |
|
Rickie Fowler |
Open Championship |
33 |
6 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40 |
7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40 |
7 |
|
Troy Merritt |
3M Open |
175 |
7 |
|
Lucas Glover |
3M Open |
90 |
7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40 |
8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Travelers |
20 |
8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28 |
9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30 |
9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150 |
10 |
|
Troy Merritt |
RBC Heritage |
250 |
10 |
