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Below you will find our Premium DFS value plays for June 19th, 2019. These picks will target low-priced players in the main slate.
These are daily outlier value plays or lesser thought of guys. They normally lay outside of the main pool of players that folks would be considering, but could vary based on that day's games and lineups. These players can be low cost with good matchups, surprise starters with good matchups, and very cheap players with good matchups.
Top Value Plays of the Day for 6/19/19
Max Fried - SP, ATL vs. New York Mets (FD $6800, DK $6100)
In the span of just a few weeks, Max Fried has gone from Cy Young contention to costing less than Drew Pomeranz on DFS sites. Talk about being dragged back down to size. Fried owned a 2.88 ERA through May 22nd, with only one real letdown along the way in a one-inning, four-run outing on May 7th. In his last four outings, however, his ERA sits at 7.52, and he only has one quality start in this span. What's interesting when diving into his numbers on Fangraphs is that the only real difference in the two samples are his walk and strikeout numbers.
Fried was striking out 22.5% of hitters and walking just 5.7% through his first 56.1 innings of the season. In his four most recent starts, those numbers become 19% and 8%, respectively. Fried is actually surrendering less hard contact (32.4%) recently than he was early in the season (38.3%), yet his .403 BABIP since May 28th is more than 100 points higher than his early .277 mark. His ground ball rates during both samples are at or above 50%, while his fly ball rates both come in below 25%. These numbers tell me that Fried just needs to rediscover the command that has eluded him of late, and he'll be fine.
Teams still aren't smashing him around the park, he's just issuing free passes a bit too frequently. This is a wildly irresponsible contrarian play if you're only constructing one or two lineups, as the Mets have been among the best teams in baseball against lefties over the last month. Factoring in his underlying numbers and the price tag, however, I'd urge you not to totally give up on Fried yet.
Roberto Perez - C, CLE vs. Joe Palumbo (FD $2900, DK $4300)
Look, I'm not going to tell you I have a concrete explanation for where this season has come from out of Roberto Perez. I will tell you that the two best stretches of baseball he's ever played were the 2016 playoffs (when Yan Gomes was injured) and the last few months, so maybe it's something as simple as regular playing time. Either way, let's just enjoy it, shall we? Perez hasn't homered since--*checks notes*--the seventh inning of last night's game against the Rangers, so he's due. He has been pretty merciless against left-handed pitching, owning a 54.6% hard-hit rate that has helped to offset his tendency to pound the ball into the ground (54.5% ground ball rate).
He's always been a strikeout candidate, but it's worth noting that he's got his rate down to 20% for the month of June, an admirable improvement on his 27.1% season-long mark. He has five of his 12 home runs against lefties despite taking fewer than a third of his plate appearances against them. Lefty Joe Palumbo has made one appearance for the Rangers this season, a home start in which he gave up four earned runs in four innings. I wouldn't hesitate to stack Cleveland hitters in this one, especially at Globe Life Park.
Eloy Jimenez - OF, CWS vs. Jon Lester (FD $3100, DK $4100)
Eloy Jimenez has evidently grown tired of not being mentioned in AL Rookie of the Year conversations, because he's been raking since the calendar turned to June. With a .340/.400/.760 slash line and six of his 12 home runs, it's safe to say the White Sox outfielder has found a comfort zone at the plate this month. He's still striking out a ton and his overall numbers against lefties aren't fantastic, but I'm choosing to go with his June improvements over his season-long numbers. He's rocking a 48.6% hard-hit rate this month, and he's lacing the ball up the middle (40%) nearly as often as he's pulling it (45.7%).
Jon Lester, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. His ERA has jumped up at least one full run with each passing month, and his 5.50 mark in June is concerning. Lester has allowed five home runs in 18 innings this month after surrendering just seven total in the previous two months combined. He's also allowing 1.74 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, of which the White Sox boast several you'd consider dangerous. His home ERA of 2.45 notwithstanding, I wouldn't consider this a favorable matchup for Lester, and Jimenez is the best bargain in the "other" Chicago team's lineup.
David Freese - 3B/1B, LAD vs. Drew Pomeranz (FD $2900, DK $4700)
Speaking of guys who've been launching the ball all over the place lately, allow me to interest you in David Freese's 1.330 OPS in June. Sure, it's only 33 plate appearances, but a streaking hitter is a streaking hitter. Freese has 13 hits this month, eight of which have gone for extra bases--including four home runs. He's making hard contact against lefties on 48.9% of batted balls, and owns an 18.2% walk rate that allows us to live with his 23.4% strikeout clip. Tonight he'll face lefty Drew Pomeranz, who owns a .937 OPS against to righties.
We can look at Pomeranz's hard-hit rate of 33.6% against righties and surmise that he's due for some better luck in the slugging department, but the Dodgers aren't a team against which you'd feel confident in correcting that. He's allowing a pretty even GB/FB ratio of 1.07, but righties have tagged him for long balls on 22% of fly balls. Moreover, the Dodgers sport the third-best hard-hit rate (46.5%) in baseball against left-handed pitching over the last month. For the season, Freese owns the third-highest wRC+ (151) against lefties of any Dodgers hitter.
Garrett Cooper - OF/1B, MIA vs. Daniel Ponce de Leon (FD $3200, DK $4100)
Garrett Cooper is slashing .390/.455/.610 in June. His .513 BABIP over this span is due for a considerable drop, but let's not fade him too early. His line drive rate this month is a staggering 38.1%, which ties him for second in the league among hitters with at least 60 plate appearances. Even the invincible Cody Bellinger isn't on that level since June 1st. Cooper's hard-hit rate of 49.2% against righties, along with his 30.4% line drive rate, allows us to stomach his 3.00 GB/FB ratio. Tonight he'll face an unproven righty in Daniel Ponce de Leon as he looks to keep things rolling.
Dansby Swanson - SS, ATL vs. Steven Matz (FD $3300, DK $4600)
There's plenty to like about Dansby Swanson against lefty Steven Matz in this contest. Swanson's batted-ball numbers versus southpaws include a 44.9% hard-hit rate, 26.5% line drive rate, and 38.8% fly ball rate. For the season, he owns an .895 OPS against left-handed pitching. He's also in the midst of his best stretch of the season as a hitter, sporting an .871 OPS and 128 wRC+ in June. Steven Matz has been serviceable against righties, but they have tagged him for 11 of his 13 home runs.
Additionally, Matz has struggled mightily on the road. Matz comes into this contest with a 5.79 ERA away from Citi Field, and he has given up 10 home runs in away games. The Braves have been merciless in their home park over the last month, leading the league in home runs and ranking second in runs scored since May 18th.
Asdrubal Cabrera - 3B, TEX vs. Adam Plutko (FD $3000, DK $4100)
Adam Plutko has pitched pretty well for a guy with a 4.63 ERA in 23.1 innings. His only rough outing of the season came last month against the Rays when he gave up four home runs. We shouldn't allow three quality starts to distract us from the fact that he's wildly susceptible to fly balls, and thus, home runs. Plutko is allowing a 50.7% overall fly ball rate, with a slightly higher 52.9% mark to lefties. Even with a 29.6% overall hard-hit rate, it stands to reason that he's going to pay for his inability to induce grounders.
Switch-hitting Asdrubal Cabrera's 34.7% hard-hit rate against righties leaves something to be desired, but we have to like what we see elsewhere in his batted-ball numbers: 24% line drive rate, 33.1% ground ball rate, 43% fly ball rate. We also have to be enamored with his numbers at Globe Life Park: a .271/.347/.558 slash line that includes all 10 of the home runs he's launched this season. I'm willing to trade low hard-hit rates for the low ground ball expectancy from both the hitter and pitcher in this matchup, especially in a stadium conducive to the home run.
