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The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 8)

Welcome to the homestretch. The past week seems to have reversed some of the trends and shifts that we were seeing earlier in the season. Edwin Encarnacion appears resurgent. Brandon Lowe looks like he is scuffling. And Tommy Pham might be coming back. The first two are more complex than they seem, but if Pham returns, it would be one of the most enigmatic parts of an already unpredictable season.

If it happens, the early return could not be more on-brand for Tommy Pham. I don't know of any other player with a more pronounced reputation as a driven athlete who so consistently exceeds expectations. I've thrown him into the ranks, but only at a $1 until we know more. If you have bench space, you could stash him, but keep in mind that we're talking about 11 or 12 games at the maximum. If the news solidifies, consider him a $10 player from now until the rest of the season.

Please remember that the schedule is now having an outsized impact on projected player values. The discrepancy is altering player ranks and causing some disconcerting changes in projected values. If you see a player who has had a bad stretch but an increase in projected value, it's probably tied to their number of remaining games relative to the rest of the league. With that out of the way,  here are the Baller Ranks Top-200 hitters and the Week 8 Meta Report. If you're unfamiliar with the Meta Report, here's a quick guide on what it is and how to read it. And if you missed Nick Mariano's pitcher rankings yesterday, here are his top 101 relievers and his top 101 starters.

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Week 8 Hitter Rankings

Rank $ Player Pos Trend
1 45.0 Mike Trout OF 0 ▬
2 45.0 Juan Soto OF 0 ▬
3 39.0 Christian Yelich OF 1 ▲
4 38.0 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 2 ▲
5 38.0 Mookie Betts OF 0 ▬
6 38.0 Bryce Harper OF -3 ▼
7 38.0 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 8 ▲
8 35.0 Trevor Story SS -1 ▼
9 34.0 Trea Turner SS 1 ▲
10 34.0 Cody Bellinger OF -2 ▼
11 33.0 Francisco Lindor SS 1 ▲
12 32.0 Freddie Freeman 1B 2 ▲
13 31.0 Jose Ramirez 3B -2 ▼
14 30.0 J.T. Realmuto C -1 ▼
15 30.0 Nolan Arenado 3B -6 ▼
16 29.0 Nelson Cruz DH 0 ▬
17 26.0 Manny Machado 3B 1 ▲
18 26.0 Marcell Ozuna DH 1 ▲
19 25.0 Rafael Devers 3B -2 ▼
20 24.0 Luis Robert OF 3 ▲
21 24.0 Eloy Jimenez OF 1 ▲
22 24.0 Paul Goldschmidt 1B -2 ▼
23 23.0 Xander Bogaerts SS -2 ▼
24 23.0 Starling Marte OF 0 ▬
25 22.0 Nick Castellanos OF 0 ▬
26 21.0 Corey Seager SS 11 ▲
27 21.0 Pete Alonso 1B -1 ▼
28 20.0 Tim Anderson SS 7 ▲
29 20.0 Keston Hiura 2B 1 ▲
30 20.0 Alex Bregman 3B 42 ▲
31 19.5 Ozzie Albies 2B 27 ▲
32 19.0 Jose Abreu 1B 10 ▲
33 18.5 Whit Merrifield OF -2 ▼
34 18.5 Matt Chapman 3B -5 ▼
35 18.5 George Springer OF -1 ▼
36 18.0 Charlie Blackmon OF -4 ▼
37 18.0 DJ LeMahieu 2B -1 ▼
38 18.0 Anthony Rizzo 1B 1 ▲
39 18.0 Javier Baez SS -12 ▼
40 17.5 Kyle Tucker OF 26 ▲
41 17.5 Marcus Semien SS 5 ▲
42 17.0 Eddie Rosario OF -4 ▼
43 17.0 Anthony Rendon 3B -10 ▼
44 17.0 Carlos Correa SS -4 ▼
45 16.5 Eugenio Suarez 3B 12 ▲
46 16.5 Ramon Laureano OF 3 ▲
47 16.5 J.D. Martinez DH -19 ▼
48 16.0 Joey Gallo OF -7 ▼
49 15.5 Didi Gregorius SS 5 ▲
50 15.5 Kyle Schwarber OF -6 ▼
51 15.5 Yuli Gurriel 1B -6 ▼
52 15.0 Michael Conforto OF -2 ▼
53 15.0 Franmil Reyes DH 8 ▲
54 15.0 Gleyber Torres SS 32 ▲
55 14.5 Luke Voit 1B 5 ▲
56 14.0 Rhys Hoskins 1B 11 ▲
57 14.0 Josh Donaldson 3B 28 ▲
58 13.5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B -10 ▼
59 13.5 Jonathan Villar SS -7 ▼
60 13.0 Miguel Sano 1B 8 ▲
61 13.0 Matt Olson 1B -5 ▼
62 13.0 Andrew McCutchen OF 8 ▲
63 13.0 Yasmani Grandal C 2 ▲
64 13.0 Ketel Marte 2B -21 ▼
65 12.0 Brandon Lowe 2B -2 ▼
66 12.0 Yoan Moncada 3B -13 ▼
67 11.5 Max Muncy 1B 4 ▲
68 11.0 Jonathan Schoop 2B 13 ▲
69 11.0 Willson Contreras C 0 ▬
70 11.0 Austin Meadows OF -11 ▼
71 10.5 Alex Verdugo OF 11 ▲
72 10.5 Jorge Soler DH -17 ▼
73 10.5 Mike Moustakas 2B 1 ▲
74 10.0 Wil Myers OF 2 ▲
75 10.0 Michael Brantley OF/DH 9 ▲
76 10.0 Kris Bryant 3B/OF/DH 3 ▲
77 10.0 Eduardo Escobar 3B 3 ▲
78 9.0 Mike Yastrzemski OF 18 ▲
79 9.0 Renato Nunez 1B 12 ▲
80 9.0 Jorge Polanco SS 18 ▲
81 8.5 Dansby Swanson SS 6 ▲
82 8.5 Trent Grisham OF 1 ▲
83 8.5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 24 ▲
84 8.0 Ian Happ OF 31 ▲
85 8.0 Cavan Biggio 2B 16 ▲
86 8.0 Jesse Winker OF 4 ▲
87 8.0 Shohei Ohtani DH -10 ▼
88 8.0 Bo Bichette SS 4 ▲
89 8.0 Will Smith C 20 ▲
90 7.5 Dominic Smith 1B/OF/DH 16 ▲
91 7.5 Randal Grichuk OF 14 ▲
92 7.5 Carlos Santana 1B 10 ▲
93 7.5 Gary Sanchez C -46 ▼
94 7.0 Yadier Molina C 9 ▲
95 7.0 Brian Anderson 3B 4 ▲
96 6.5 Kyle Lewis OF 4 ▲
97 6.5 Kyle Seager 3B 22 ▲
98 6.5 Austin Nola C 19 ▲
99 6.5 Ryan Mountcastle OF/DH 39 ▲
100 6.5 Josh Bell 1B -6 ▼
101 6.5 Corey Dickerson OF 27 ▲
102 6.0 Jake Cronenworth 2B 8 ▲
103 6.0 Pedro Severino C 9 ▲
104 6.0 J.D. Davis 3B 4 ▲
105 6.0 Adalberto Mondesi SS 9 ▲
106 6.0 Victor Robles OF -13 ▼
107 6.0 Adam Eaton OF -18 ▼
108 5.5 Mitch Moreland 1B 3 ▲
109 5.5 Kolten Wong 2B 9 ▲
110 5.5 Alec Bohm 3B 3 ▲
111 5.5 Byron Buxton OF -7 ▼
112 5.0 Aaron Judge OF/DH 9 ▲
113 5.0 Willy Adames SS 7 ▲
114 5.0 Mark Canha OF 2 ▲
115 5.0 Jeff McNeil 2B/3B/OF/DH 15 ▲
116 4.5 Dylan Moore 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF 29 ▲
117 4.5 Christian Walker 1B 5 ▲
118 4.5 Travis d'Arnaud C 5 ▲
119 4.5 Gio Urshela 3B -55 ▼
120 4.5 Paul DeJong SS 5 ▲
121 4.0 A.J. Pollock OF 8 ▲
122 4.0 Avisail Garcia OF 2 ▲
123 4.0 Edwin Encarnacion DH 47 ▲
124 3.5 Maikel Franco 3B 10 ▲
125 3.5 Nick Solak OF 6 ▲
126 3.5 Colin Moran 1B/3B/DH -8 ▼
127 3.5 Christian Vazquez C 0 ▬
128 3.5 Aaron Hicks OF 25 ▲
129 3.5 Jo Adell OF 15 ▲
130 3.5 Joc Pederson OF 2 ▲
131 3.0 Kevin Pillar OF 9 ▲
132 3.0 David Fletcher SS 1 ▲
133 3.0 Evan Longoria 3B 18 ▲
134 3.0 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B 1 ▲
135 3.0 Jean Segura 2B/3B/SS 33 ▲
136 3.0 Justin Upton OF 67 ▲
137 2.5 Donovan Solano 2B 49 ▲
138 2.5 J.P. Crawford SS 1 ▲
139 2.5 Max Kepler OF -88 ▼
140 2.5 Shin-Soo Choo OF/DH -4 ▼
141 2.5 Wilson Ramos C 2 ▲
142 2.0 Alex Dickerson OF 18 ▲
143 2.0 Brad Miller 3B/SS/DH 16 ▲
144 2.0 Tommy La Stella 2B 23 ▲
145 2.0 Justin Turner 3B 1 ▲
146 2.0 Tommy Edman 2B/3B/SS/OF 9 ▲
147 2.0 Joey Votto 1B -10 ▼
148 2.0 Hunter Renfroe OF 2 ▲
149 2.0 Howie Kendrick 1B/DH -23 ▼
150 1.5 Eric Hosmer 1B -53 ▼
151 1.5 Austin Riley 3B 37 ▲
152 1.5 Nick Ahmed SS 10 ▲
153 1.5 Asdrubal Cabrera 1B/3B/DH -11 ▼
154 1.5 Joey Bart C/DH 3 ▲
155 1.5 Jose Altuve 2B -93 ▼
156 1.5 Giancarlo Stanton DH -83 ▼
157 1.0 Teoscar Hernandez OF -82 ▼
158 1.0 Anthony Santander OF -63 ▼
159 1.0 Rowdy Tellez 1B/DH -12 ▼
160 1.0 Adam Duvall OF 40 ▲
161 1.0 Brandon Belt 1B 0 ▬
162 1.0 Jesus Aguilar 1B/3B/DH 4 ▲
163 1.0 Brandon Nimmo OF 1 ▲
164 1.0 Miguel Cabrera DH 25 ▲
165 1.0 David Peralta OF -87 ▼
166 1.0 Jon Berti 2B/3B/SS/OF -7 ▼
167 1.0 Austin Slater OF/DH -4 ▼
168 1.0 Clint Frazier OF/DH 12 ▲
169 1.0 Ryan Braun 1B/OF/DH -13 ▼
170 1.0 Ryan McMahon 2B -29 ▼
171 1.0 Salvador Perez C/1B/DH -2 ▼
172 1.0 Luis Urias 2B/3B/SS -23 ▼
173 1.0 Daniel Murphy 1B -19 ▼
174 1.0 Tommy Pham OF 26 ▲
175 1.0 Luis Arraez 2B 25 ▲
176 1.0 Chance Sisco C/DH -3 ▼
177 1.0 Victor Caratini C/1B/DH -1 ▼
178 1.0 Austin Romine C -6 ▼
179 1.0 Gavin Lux 2B -21 ▼
180 1.0 Niko Goodrum SS -15 ▼
181 1.0 Nick Senzel OF -2 ▼
182 1.0 Amed Rosario SS -34 ▼
183 1.0 Max Stassi C -1 ▼
184 1.0 Elvis Andrus SS -13 ▼
185 0.5 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF/DH 15 ▲
186 1.0 Sam Haggerty 3B/OF/DH -1 ▼
187 1.0 Anthony Santander OF -92 ▼
188 0.8 Rio Ruiz 3B -36 ▼
189 0.8 Garrett Hampson OF -2 ▼
190 0.8 Chris Taylor 2B/SS/OF/DH 10 ▲
191 0.8 Andres Gimenez 2B/3B/SS 9 ▲
192 0.8 James McCann C 8 ▲
193 0.8 Daulton Varsho C/OF/DH -3 ▼
194 0.8 Sean Murphy C -2 ▼
195 0.8 Bryan Reynolds OF -21 ▼
196 0.8 Andrelton Simmons SS -5 ▼
197 0.8 Carter Kieboom 3B/DH 3 ▲
198 0.8 Omar Narvaez C -3 ▼
199 0.8 Danny Jansen C -6 ▼
200 0.8 Brett Gardner OF -25 ▼

 

Key Rankings Movers

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Phillies)

There were some brutal stretches for Hoskins earlier in the season and some hard talk from fantasy managers about whether he was overdrafted based on erratic success.

Through his first 19 games, Hoskins hit .214 with 1 HR, 13 runs, 6 RBI, and a .760 OPS. For those 19 games, Hoskins ranked 421st in value. Since then, the Phillies have played another 19 games, and Hoskins has hit .289 with 8 HR, 18 R, 16 RBI, and a 1.071 OPS. During that stretch, he has been the 11th most valuable player in fantasy baseball.

Which one is the true Rhys Hoskins? Yes.

Here's where it gets worse. Hoskins' numbers looked fundamentally similar to last season. His Hard-Hit rate was down, as was his max exit velocity, but most of the batted ball data made him look like the same player.

We should have been able to see the truth in Hoskins' xwOBA. During those first 19 games, Hoskins' xwOBA was .406. In the second set, it has been .409, so why has Hoskins' performance been so erratic? Some of it is the small and over-weighted nature of this season's sampling. Some of it is also because of Hoskins' approach at the plate. While the Phillies' first baseman has always been a patient hitter, he owns a 23.4° launch angle. Hoskins' swing plane is steep enough that it leaves him subject to truly horrific luck with pop-ups and ground outs. During that initial stretch of futility, Hoskins owned a 40.5% fly-ball rate, which should be a positive, but it was compounded by a 23.5% infield-flyball rate and a 30.9% ground ball rate. Simply put, while Hoskins' aggressive launch angle allows him to generate ample home runs, it also leaves him subject to the type of batted-ball luck that prompts fantasy managers wondering if he's even ownable.

With Hoskins, managers are left with a player who has earned his spot and who looks like a good bet to finish the season as a top-10 first baseman. However, as those two stretches show us, the floor and ceiling are about as far apart as they can possibly be.

 

Kyle Tucker (OF, Astros)

The young Astros outfielder has done something that has thwarted so many rookies before him: he has played his way through the Dusty-Baker-Wall-of-Veteran-Experience.

Despite concerns about playing time, Tucker has been showcasing the type of 20-20 skills that have made him a blue-chip prospect. With his recent surge, Tucker has provided 8 home runs, 30 runs, 37 RBI, and 5 stolen bases with a .272 average. In fact, if we combine Tucker's 2019 and 2020 numbers, he is on a 162-game pace for 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases.

What's more, the underlying stats support Tucker's performance so far. His barrel rate (11.8%), exit velocity (91 MPH), hard-hit rate (45.4%), and xSLG (.540) are all in the top 25% of the league.

Tucker's hit tool and power are complemented by his five steals and effective speed. Add Tucker's 2019 audition to this year, and he has 10 steals in 64 games without having been caught once. That efficiency will ensure that the Astros keep letting him run.

The combination pushes his value up to the top-40 hitters, and we're getting to see his ceiling right now. Certainly, the talent is there to become a top-10 offensive threat, and Tucker's track record gives us a real reason to believe.

 

Brandon Lowe (2B, Rays)

Lowe offers us an example of the anti-Hoskins. Lowe's prospect pedigree and hot start made him a darling for managers, and he looked like the type of breakout player that helps win leagues. Over the last two weeks, however, he's struggled to produce. The dry stretch and Lowe's relative age have been forcing managers to re-evaluate his first-month success.

Fortunately, while the projections and production have faded a bit, there is good reason to be optimistic that he'll continue to be a top-ten second baseman from here forward. Even during this slump, Lowe has continued to barrel the ball at a 12.9% rate. His launch angle is still a healthy 15.1°, and on Monday night, he smacked a ball at 109.6 MPH, his highest exit velocity this season.

Lowe may need to make critical adjustments to rebound, but the situation doesn't look dire. His strikeout rate is up to 32.1% over his last 50 at-bats, but his chase rate, swinging-strike rate, and contact rates are relatively stable.

Over 165 MLB games, Brandon Lowe has given us a 126 wRC+, and there's nothing in the recent sample to make us doubt that level of performance.

 

Dylan Moore (OF, Mariners)

In his five games since returning from the IL, Moore has hit one home run and two doubles, scored four times, driven in four runs, and stolen three bases.

It's hard to believe in a breakout like this from a 28-year-old who was relatively unheralded as a prospect, but Moore has shown useful power and become the type of cheap speedster that many fantasy owners bank on. Moore's six home runs and nine steals have allowed him to score 20 times despite missing that two-week stretch.

In games, Moore shows the type of tools that made him an above-average offensive player at nearly every stop in the minors. In 2016, he averaged a 134 wRC+ in A ball. In 2017, he struggled at AA, but in 2018, he posted a 131 at AA and AAA. Looking at his numbers more carefully, it seems the only reason to dismiss Moore's MiLB track record was his age and lack of pedigree. While player age does have a clear relationship to overall outcomes, Moore seems a good bet to continue outperforming his current projections.

Moreover, Moore looks like a different, better player than he did last year. We have improvements in his max exit velocity (a key indicator in adjusting our projections for small samples), his barrel rate (up from 6.5% to 13.6%), and his hard-hit rate (36.1% to 43.9%).

Moore is right on the verge of getting caught stealing a bit too much (9 for 12), but the Mariners seem content to let him run for now. The $4.5 value is under Kolten Wong, Jeff McNeil, and Jake Cronenworth, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Moore outproduce all of them.

 

Speed Round

Justin Upton (OF, Angels) The reports of Justin Upton's demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'm guilty of having dropped Upton outside my top-150. Without full playing time, it was impossible to project him for meaningful value the rest of the way. He hasn't returned to everyday player status, but Joe Maddon is getting him onto the field often enough that he should be useful for players in need of outfield help.

Edwin Encarnacion (DH, White Sox) A part of me wants to write that Encarnacion does this to us every year, but there are still real signs of trouble for EE. While he's continued to slug homers, he's struggled to do much else. I know, I know, Joey Gallo, but Encarnacion is in a different territory. Even with his elite 16.9% barrel rate, Encarnacion's xBA is only .179. Compare that number to his .248 from 2019 or .246 from 2018. Moreover, his hard-hit rate has fallen to 29.6%. Those numbers haven't gotten dramatically better over his recent power surge. Like Upton, Encarnacion should offer some value, but based on his current batted-ball data, it's a limited ceiling with absolutely no floor.

Gary Sanchez (C, Yankees) Sanchez's strikeout rate has spiked so much that I had to go and check that the data was right. It's uncommon to see this level of collapse from a batter, even one like Sanchez, whose plate approach can be problematic. In this case, we're talking about a hitter with a batting average at .125 and a 41.5% strikeout rate. Granted, Sanchez's BABIP is also .125, his barrel rate is 18.2%, and his hard-hit rate is 49.1%. The whole Yankees' organization is in some type of funk right now, and you have to figure they will come out of it, but this is…not good. The projections put Sanchez as closer to a $9-10 value, but that seems optimistic based on the indicators from our most stable data so far this season.

 




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