RADIO
Howdy, RotoBallers, and allow me to welcome you to the thick of June! We've got burgers on the grill, cornhole in the yard, and yet another updated edition of my top-101 starting pitcher rankings that look at rest-of-season values. As always, I've got you covered with ranks, tiers, trends, and notes with the top-101 in a table with other fun things like earned value via Fangraphs. It's time for another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This google sheet accompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from the last 30 days. Do note that the bottom of the top-101 table has the injured arms and where they'd slot in when healthy, plus some brief updates on where they're at recovery-wise. I highly encourage you to click the sheet.
As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues. Without further ado, here's my top-101 SP for the rest of 2022!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Lance Lynn, Clayton Kershaw, and Tylor Megill are all welcomed back from the infirmary ward with some rusty returns, but we’re just happy to see them. Lynn at least didn’t issue any walks, opting instead to be done in by batted balls with a horrid .529 BABIP on the day. Kershaw got roughed up a bit in the second inning but looked like himself for the most part. And Megill pushed out to 64 pitches looking no worse for wear, so I’m going to call all of these a win.
I’d plopped Shane Baz back onto the table for his return last Saturday but he’s right there in that conversation. It’s never recommended to deploy an arm in their first start back from the IL and Baz allowing five runs over 2 ⅓ IP underscores why! After looking alright through two frames, he loaded up the bases for a Luis Arraez grand slam in the third and would exit after 48 pitches. He’s in wait-and-see mode for Friday’s outing at Baltimore but the future is bright and any buy-low opportunities should be taken advantage of.
-Kevin Gausman has lost four of his last six and while he’s still rocking a stellar 77/10 K/BB on the year (70 ⅔ IP), the 12/5 ratio over his last three starts (14 ⅔ IP) is far less impressive. He’s yet to surrender more than three earned runs in any outing so you aren’t getting scorched, but you can’t have a three-start stretch like that alongside a 2-4 record in his last six starts and keep your slot near the top of the table.
-Shane Bieber continues to make me feel silly for my early doubts regarding his reduced velocity, but he’s also enjoyed a swell run of matchups. He’s faced Texas, Baltimore (at Camden), Detroit x2, Minnesota, Oakland, Colorado, and Toronto over his last eight games. And you’ll recall Toronto gave him that seven-run thrashing back in early May. That’s not exactly a Murderer’s Row, but props to him for delivering all the same! I give solid credit for turning in a quality start at Coors Field on Tuesday as well.
-Zac Gallen was phenomenal through his first seven starts, allowing only five earned runs in that window (39 ⅓ IP) with a 39/8 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, he then got walloped by KC on May 24 for six earned and has now given up 14 ER with a 16/8 K/BB mark in his last four trips to the hill. Let’s hope he can regain his command and feel more confident on the bump soon.
-Eric Lauer is another arm that’s fading as the heat rises, only exceeding five innings twice in his last six turns. He’d shown tremendous growth in the control department early on, walking one or fewer in five of his first seven starts of 2022. As you know by now, seeing that the K/BB ratio slide is very bad and now Lauer has walked multiple batters in each of his last four starts. The early 54/8 K/BB rate has given way to a 13/13 split in his last four games and that yields warning bells.
-Robbie Ray gives us a positive blurb in 2022 as he’s dusted off a sinker that gave us seven shutout innings against a good Red Sox lineup on June 12. The southpaw threw it nearly half of the time per Savant and perhaps this could stabilize his arsenal enough to limit the insane bad innings that have devastated him thus far. In case you’ve missed it, Ray’s worst inning from each game has been responsible for roughly 75% of all earned runs against him. So any pitch he can dip into the stop the bleeding and induce some DP-friendly grounders is welcome.
-Hunter Greene pulled out of his spiral and now has a sexy 3.57 SIERA underneath the 5.10 ERA and 5.16 FIP. That 30.3% strikeout rate is electrifying, even in today’s strikeout-happy era, but it’s his only walking two batters in his last three starts with an emphasis on the slider that has us truly happy. His triple-digit fastball remains a threat but is no longer the backbone of his approach, as MLB hitters can adjust and line up their barrel. Take when Aroldis Chapman has command of his fastball-slider combo in the ninth and make that into a starter. If Greene can develop a third pitch then we’d be seeing a frontline ace emerge, but this will do for now.
-Trevor Rogers is in droppable territory for 10-teamers and some 12’s. Taking on the Phillies at Citizens Bank was going to be tough, but allowing four earned with SIX walks in just 3 ⅔ IP is just terrible. He’s now posted a WHIP of 2.50 or higher in three of his last five starts. The implosions remain too frequent to be worth chasing the upside in many formats. The chase rate on his changeup went from 45% in 2021 down to around 30% in ‘22 and hitters have more than doubled the barrel rate from last year against his heater. It’s terrible, avert your eyes. Yusei Kikuchi also destroyed a little confidence I’d regained, and Ranger Suarez couldn’t deliver in a streaming spot against Arizona so they both fall as well.
Top-101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $5.0 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | $4.0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 2 | Shane McClanahan | 3 | $8.7 | 41.0 | 37.0 | 4.0 ▲ | Does he have durability to sustain thru RoS? |
| -1 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 4 | $6.8 | 41.0 | 41.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 5 | $16.1 | 37.0 | 34.0 | 3.0 ▲ | 7+ IP in last 7 starts w/ only 5 ER! Helps milder Ks |
| 1 | 2 | Zack Wheeler | 6 | $13.4 | 37.0 | 34.0 | 3.0 ▲ | 1.09 FIP over last month, elite Ks plus 53% GB rate |
| 1 | 2 | Justin Verlander | 7 | $5.7 | 34.0 | 32.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| -3 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 8 | $4.5 | 33.5 | 36.0 | -2.5 ▼ | Lesser command, BB creeping up, .361 BABIP last 30 |
| 0 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 9 | $9.5 | 32.0 | 31.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Max Fried | 10 | $5.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 3 | Carlos Rodon | 11 | $2.1 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Rebounded against Dodgers of all teams, nice |
| 3 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 12 | $10.0 | 27.0 | 25.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 5 | 3 | Shane Bieber | 13 | $10.5 | 25.0 | 22.5 | 2.5 ▲ | 28.3% K-BB rate in last 30 as early worries vanish |
| 5 | 3 | Frankie Montas | 14 | $8.4 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 3 | Shohei Ohtani | 15 | $0.7 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| N/A | 3 | Lance Lynn | 16 | $0.3 | 22.5 | N/A | N/A | .529 BABIP in return, sheesh; no walks is good |
| -4 | 3 | Lucas Giolito | 17 | $0.3 | 22.5 | 28.5 | -6.0 ▼ | 5 HR in last 3 starts, ~.400 BABIP in last 30 |
| -2 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 18 | $2.7 | 22.5 | 24.5 | -2.0 ▼ | Losing control, 22/16 K/BB over 4 starts before 6/14 |
| -2 | 3 | Pablo Lopez | 19 | $0.1 | 22.0 | 23.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 4 | Nestor Cortes | 20 | $5.7 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Bad luck on off night; only 3 BB in last 5 games |
| N/A | 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 21 | -$0.3 | 20.0 | N/A | N/A | Back in action, CLE at home next |
| 0 | 4 | Logan Webb | 22 | $3.8 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 4 | Julio Urias | 23 | $3.1 | 19.0 | 20.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 5 | 4 | Luis Severino | 24 | $5.5 | 19.0 | 15.5 | 3.5 ▲ | Will IP be managed down stretch? B2B 10 K gems |
| -1 | 4 | Logan Gilbert | 25 | $6.1 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 26 | $7.4 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ | 6+ K in 3 of last 4 after early-May lull |
| 3 | 4 | Kyle Wright | 27 | $7.0 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 2.0 ▲ | Woe to those who jumped ship, QS or W in last 6 |
| -7 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | 28 | -$2.1 | 16.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 ▼ | 2 implosions over his last 5 starts |
| 2 | 4 | Luis Castillo | 29 | $7.6 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 5 | 4 | Tarik Skubal | 30 | $9.9 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| -6 | 5 | Zac Gallen | 31 | -$1.3 | 14.5 | 17.5 | -3.0 ▼ | |
| -5 | 5 | Michael Kopech | 32 | $2.7 | 14.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 ▼ | Fluid drained in knee, may make next start |
| 0 | 5 | Sean Manaea | 33 | $2.9 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 34 | $5.9 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 4 | 5 | Tony Gonsolin | 35 | $5.7 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| -4 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 36 | $0.4 | 13.0 | 14.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -3 | 5 | Shane Baz | 37 | -$1.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 5 | Jose Berrios | 38 | $4.1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 5 | Sonny Gray | 39 | $6.9 | 12.5 | N/A | N/A | Supposed to return late this week |
| -4 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 40 | $3.2 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 6 | Luis Garcia | 41 | $3.1 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -1 | 6 | Carlos Carrasco | 42 | $6.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 6 | Tylor Megill | 43 | -$0.2 | 10.0 | N/A | N/A | Some rust in return, went 64 pitches |
| 0 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 44 | $5.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 6 | Cristian Javier | 45 | $6.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | 30% K rate in last 30, great threshold to meet |
| 1 | 6 | MacKenzie Gore | 46 | $6.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 6 | Robbie Ray | 47 | -$0.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Throwing sinker more now, led to QS v. BOS |
| 2 | 6 | Aaron Ashby | 48 | $5.4 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 1.73 xFIP lowest of all P in last 30 days |
| -3 | 6 | George Kirby | 49 | $0.3 | 8.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 2 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 50 | $3.7 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Masterful Tuesday, though it was versus ARI |
| -8 | 7 | Eric Lauer | 51 | -$0.5 | 7.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 ▼ | Ks down, BBs up, panic up |
| -1 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 52 | $4.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 7 | Adam Wainwright | 53 | $4.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 7 | Triston McKenzie | 54 | -$2.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 7 | Roansy Contreras | 55 | $4.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Impressed as he keeps attacking zone |
| 5 | 7 | Jameson Taillon | 56 | $7.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 7 | 7 | Nick Pivetta | 57 | $7.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Even in loss, still gave us 11 Ks. Sharp run |
| 7 | 8 | Tyler Anderson | 58 | $7.8 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 8 | Blake Snell | 59 | $4.2 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 12 | 9 | Spencer Strider | 60 | $5.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Control off at Coors, fine, then blanked PIT |
| -1 | 8 | Noah Syndergaard | 61 | $1.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 8 | Drew Rasmussen | 62 | -$0.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 8 | Martin Perez | 63 | $8.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | A bad turn was inevitable but not a dealbreaker |
| 3 | 8 | Paul Blackburn | 64 | $2.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 8 | Alex Wood | 65 | $7.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 8 | Michael Lorenzen | 66 | $5.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 9 | Josiah Gray | 67 | -$0.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 7 | 9 | Jeffrey Springs | 68 | $4.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Keeps cruising with 3-pitch mix, going 5+ IP for Ws |
| 9 | 9 | Jon Gray | 69 | $6.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 9 | 9 | Hunter Greene | 70 | $6.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 9 | Jose Urquidy | 71 | -$1.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 8 | 9 | Brady Singer | 72 | $2.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 11 | 9 | Edward Cabrera | 73 | -$0.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Disciplined HOU tagged him, gets NYM next |
| 8 | 10 | Zach Eflin | 74 | $3.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -17 | 7 | Trevor Rogers | 75 | -$2.6 | 3.0 | 5.5 | -2.5 ▼ | 5+ BBs in 2 of last 3, 17/15 K/BB in last 5 starts |
| 9 | 10 | Miles Mikolas | 76 | $2.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ | 129 pitches in no-hit bid, watch for hangover |
| 0 | 9 | Reid Detmers | 77 | -$0.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 78 | $5.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 7 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 79 | $2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 7 | 10 | Taijuan Walker | 80 | $7.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 10 | 10 | Graham Ashcraft | 81 | $4.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 13 | 10 | Michael Wacha | 82 | $3.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -13 | 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 83 | $1.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -2.0 ▼ | Slapped around by BAL B squad, no bueno |
| 5 | 10 | Kyle Hendricks | 84 | -$2.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 10 | Jose Quintana | 85 | $4.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 6 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 86 | $1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Starting to lean on 2-seamer for more balance |
| 11 | 10 | Alex Faedo | 87 | $3.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -7 | 10 | Ranger Suarez | 88 | $3.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Even struggled vs. ARI, zero trust here |
| -1 | 10 | Ian Anderson | 89 | $2.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | May be on outside of 5-man when Soroka is ready |
| N/A | 10 | Ross Stripling | 90 | $4.6 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| 2 | 10 | Dane Dunning | 91 | $2.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| N/A | 11 | Tyler Wells | 92 | $3.7 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| 1 | 11 | JT Brubaker | 93 | $2.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 11 | Madison Bumgarner | 94 | -$0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 11 | Corey Kluber | 95 | $4.2 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | Minuscule walk rate of late driving success |
| N/A | 11 | Devin Smeltzer | 96 | -$0.1 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | Dakota Hudson | 97 | $5.4 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | Zach Thompson | 98 | $0.5 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | Johnny Cueto | 99 | $3.2 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | Zach Davies | 100 | $0.9 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | Matthew Liberatore | 101 | -$2.5 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | Called up 6/14, 5 scoreless IP for the win |
| N/A | INJ | Jacob deGrom | 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Throwing bullpens, hope for ASB return |
| N/A | INJ | Max Scherzer | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | May beat ASB return, live hitters soon |
| N/A | INJ | Brandon Woodruff | 5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Reynaud's finger numbness, hope TOS isn't coming |
| N/A | INJ | Walker Buehler | 11 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Out 6-8 weeks then rehab, droppable territory |
| N/A | INJ | Chris Sale | 20 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Threw live BP on 6/14, may be reliever? |
| N/A | INJ | Freddy Peralta | 24 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Shoulder strain means significant time missed |
| N/A | INJ | Jack Flaherty | 25 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Next rehab start on 6/15, aiming for 75 pitches |
| N/A | INJ | Nathan Eovaldi | 28 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Lower back inflammation |
| N/A | INJ | Lance McCullers Jr. | 35 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Starting to throw curve soon in rehab |
| N/A | INJ | Mike Clevinger | 42 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | COVID-19 list |
| N/A | INJ | Jesus Luzardo | 44 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Played catch on 6/13 |
| N/A | INJ | Alex Cobb | 41 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Throwing live BP on 6/14 |
| N/A | INJ | Andrew Heaney | 46 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | May return after 3rd rehab start on 6/14 |
| N/A | INJ | Mike Soroka | 48 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Sitting 92-95, may begin rehab starts end of June |
| N/A | INJ | Dustin May | 50 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Hoping for early-to-mid August return |
| N/A | INJ | Garrett Whitlock | 49 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Hip inflammation, BOS rotation hit again |
| N/A | INJ | Nick Lodolo | 53 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Starting rehab assignment 6/13 |
| N/A | INJ | Bailey Ober | 55 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Right groin strain, |
| N/A | INJ | Stephen Strasburg | 56 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Back to IL, discomfort during bullpen |
| N/A | INJ | Eduardo Rodriguez | 60 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Restricted list |
| N/A | INJ | Sixto Sanchez | 65 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | "Dry mound" work, throwing around 75 mph |
| N/A | INJ | James Paxton | 66 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Bullpen session last weekend, 15 pitches |
| N/A | INJ | Marcus Stroman | 69 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Right shoulder inflammation |
| N/A | INJ | Luis Patino | 74 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Threw 29 pitches in 2nd rehab start 6/12 |
| N/A | INJ | Adbert Alzolay | 75 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Resumed light catch, temper expectations |
| N/A | INJ | Anthony DeSclafani | 76 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Returning to rotation this/next week |
| N/A | INJ | Hyun Jin Ryu | 80 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | What will surgery be? 2022 likely over |
| N/A | INJ | Steven Matz | 80 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Long tossing after rehab hit a snag |
| N/A | INJ | Jakob Junis | 83 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Hamstring strain, out 4-6 weeks |
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