2021 PGA DFS Preview: Fortinet Championship

Hi RotoBallers! I'm Andy Lack and I'm very excited to be with you for the PGA Tour Swing Season! In our ongoing attempt to expand and improve our PGA coverage, I will be dropping a 'Tournament Preview' every Monday morning.

I hope this preview will give you a head start on your Fortinet research and I'd also like to encourage you to check out my Inside Golf Podcast to hear more of my thoughts on Silverado Country Club and this week's tournament. If you aren't already utilizing RotoBaller's amazing weekly PGA content, fix that right now by joining us this week and throughout the rest of the PGA Tour season.

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RotoBaller Weekly PGA Article Schedule

Monday

You can find out all you need to know about this week's layout with Josh Bennett's Course Breakdown (Premium) and learn which golfers have thrived at this course in the past with Joe Nicely's Horse For The Course.

Tuesday

We kick your DFS research into high gear with articles from Spencer Aguiar! Spencer will highlight his favorite DraftKings Plays of the week - an article that also includes his popular PGA DFS Rankings Wizard Model - and offer great tips with his Head-To-Head Betting Preview, while Joe Nicely drops some salary savers in his DraftKings Value Plays (Premium) article. We also have you FanDuel fans covered with free PGA DFS picks for every tournament.

Wednesday

Things start getting intense on Wednesday and we've got you covered! You can check out RotoBaller Staff One And Done selections and get inside the mind of our team with our PGA DFS Expert Roundtable (Premium). We also have two of the most popular articles in the PGA DFS industry with Spencer Aguiar's Vegas Report (Premium) and Joe Nicely's DraftKings Core Four (Premium). You can also check out Josh Bennett's DFS Cheat Sheet (Premium) for a quick cram session!

Tournament Overview

2021 Fortinet Championship

Recent Winners

• 2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
• 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
• 2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
• 2017: Brendan Steele (-15)
• 2016: Brendan Steele (-18)

Event Details

• Purse: $7,000,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500 (Winner)
• Field: 156 Players

After a one week hiatus, the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season is already underway, and players will be traveling to beautiful Napa, California this week for the Fortinet Championship. If this tournament sounds unfamiliar, it's only because Fortinet is a new title sponsor. This event was formerly called the Safeway Open, and it will still be held at Silverado Country Club, which has been the host course since 2014.

While many of the world's best players will be opting to rest up after a grueling super-season, three of last year's major champions, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, and Phil Mickelson will all be in attendance. American Express champion, Si Woo Kim, Genesis Invitational champion, Max Homa, and PGA Tour Rookie of the Year candidate, Will Zalatoris, will also be making the trip to Northern California. As I always say with weaker field events, I believe these are the easiest weeks for fantasy managers to capitalize on, especially if they are willing to do the legwork on some of the lesser known players that might not be household names to the general public. I personally happen to love weeks like this, and I am beyond excited to get back into golf. One week off was long enough! Let's get into my course breakdown, key statistics, and three players that are worthy of further attention.

Course Breakdown

Silverado Country Club - Napa, CA 

Silverado Country Club was designed by Robert Trent Jones in 1966, with a 2011 re-design from Johnny Miller. The Napa course plays as a par 72 and tips out to a modest 7,166 yards on the scorecard. Silverado features only two water hazards on property, along with bermuda-grass and poa fairways, Kentucky blue-grass with rye rough, and the greens are a mixture of poa and bent-grass. Silverado is a very short course, and on first glance, it's a little surprising that PGA Tour pros have not actually shot lower scores here. Last year, Stewart Cink got to 21 under-par, but prior to that, winners have posted -17, -14, -15, -18, -15, -15 in the six preceding years. My hunch is that players will need to get to 20-under par again, as the fields in these fall series events have gotten progressively better over the last five years. Good PGA Tour pros should be able to tear this place up.

What really stands out to me about Silverado is that the fairways here are extremely narrow, and Tour pros only hit them 52% of the time. 27-yard on average fairways are definitely on the smaller side and are about the same width of what we recently just saw at East Lake Golf Club. The crucial difference between East Lake and Silverado however is that there is no real penalty for missing the fairway here. Three inch Kentucky blue-grass rough doesn't seem to be a problem for players, so expect to see a lot of pros continue to pull driver with little regard for finding themselves in the thicker stuff. The fact that driving accuracy percentage is astronomically low is further proof that players find it advantageous to hit driver on this course. Cameron Champ summed it up nicely, "Sometimes I don't even care if I'm in the rough, it doesn't really matter. I'll just try to position it off the tee. If the pin's far left, I'll play the right side. And like I said, I'll take it in the rough being up there hitting driver." Don't be fooled by Silverado's low driving accuracy percentage. This course is not like East Lake where it is necessary to target accurate players off the tee because there is a penalty for missing the fairway.

The largest reason I could find as to why scoring at Silverado isn't even lower, is that these greens do feature some tricky undulations. Johnny Miller wanted to create an "Augusta" like feel, and while I am not sure he entirely succeeded at that, putting will be of upmost importance here. Looking back at the strokes gained data from last year's leaderboard, 19 out of the top 20 players gained strokes putting. 18 out of the top 20 players also gained strokes off the, so as I have already alluded to, I do believe that players with length off the tee possess an advantage here. With that being said, the players at the very top of the leaderboard all gained over five strokes on approach. 2019 was pretty similar, with a lot of players gaining off the tee, and a lot of players putting the lights out. While an advantage can be had for those who are long off the tee, we have also seen shorter players such as Brandt Snedeker and Ryan Moore experience success at Silverado via a red-hot putter. In fairness, Snedeker and Moore were surrounded on the leaderboard by bombers such as Kevin Tway, Luke List, Sam Ryder, and J.B. Holmes. Essentially, I do not see Silverado as a course such as Torrey Pines or TPC Sawgrass (or any difficult course for that matter), where elite ball-strikers possess a giant advantage. You absolutely need to make putts here to compete, as many of the longer players will have a wedge on nearly every hole.

In conclusion, there are far worse ways to attack this week than simply by targeting longer players who are dialed in with their wedges and capable of catching a hot putter. All of the proximity ranges between 75-150 yards are well above Tour average at Silverado, so pinpointing those with excellent with flip wedges will be paramount. Players who also have an affinity for easier courses and are comfortable going low would also be preferred. Let's dig into the metrics!

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Key Statistics 

Outside of the obvious four major statistical categories (strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained putting), here are a few ancillary statistics that should prove pivotal, as well as the top-5 players in the field in these metrics over their last 24 rounds.

1. Birdies or Better Gained  
   1. Jon Rahm
   2. Hank Lebioda
   3. Webb Simpson
   4. Emiliano Grillo
   5. Pat Perez
2. Weighted Proximity 100-150 yards 
   1. Charley Hoffman
   2. Russell Knox
   3. Sam Ryder
   4. Kyle Stanley
   5. Patton Kizzire
3. Opportunities Gained  
   1. Cameron Percy
   2. Sebastian Munoz
   3. Doug Ghim
   4. Charley Hoffman
   5. Emiliano Grillo
4. Driving Distance 
   1. Joseph Bramlett
   2. Brandon Hagy
   3. Tyler McCumber
   4. Cameron Champ
   5. Luke List
5. Strokes Gained: Par Fives
   1. Pat Perez
   2. Jon Rahm
   3. Beau Hossler
   4. Adam Schenk
   5. Vincent Whaley

While those five statistics are a great place to start, I am also looking at average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions, and proximity from 75-100 yards.

Players To Target

High-Price Tier

Webb Simpson 

While Webb Simpson certainly does not fit the mold of a bomber, I still love his chances at Silverado because he makes a ton of a birdies, he takes advantage of par fives, and he is an elite wedge player. Over his last 36 rounds, the eight-time PGA Tour winner ranks 13th in birdies or better gained, 25th in strokes gained par fives, and 14th in proximity from 75-100 yards. Simpson has undeniably reached the point in his career where he can be far more selective about the tournaments that he plays in, and his presence in Napa this week leads me to believe this is a course he truly feels he can compete at.

While the Wake Forest product failed to reach the TOUR Championship, he actually had a really finish to end of the season, and his iron play in particular has been off the charts. In his most recent start, Simpson finished 12th at the BMW while gaining five strokes on approach. If the former U.S. Open champion can gain five strokes on approach on a 7,500 yard golf course, I can only imagine what he ought to be able to do on a course where he will have a wedge in hand on nearly every hole. Simpson has now gained over two strokes on approach in three consecutive starts, his off the tee metrics are trending in the right direction, and he looks to have found form with the putter. I expect Jon Rahm to carry sky-high ownership this week at an extremely inflated price, and I will gladly pivot to Webb Simpson instead.

Mid-Price Tier

Harold Varner III

While Harold Varner III is still searching for that elusive first victory, the Fortinet Championship feels like a very logical break-through spot. Varner is evidently a huge fan of Silverado as he plays this tournament every year, and boasts four top-30 finishes in six appearances. This should not come as a surprise, as the Robert Trent Jones design is certainly a solid fit for Varner's game. The East Carolina University product is plenty long off the tee, makes loads of birdies, and performs in easier scoring conditions.

Even more-so than course fit, the biggest reason that Varner has my attention this week is his recent form. The Ohio native is coming off back-to-back top 15 finishes in the FedEx Cup playoffs. Varner has now gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in four consecutive measured starts, including 5.1 most recently at the BMW Championship. That is a really impressive number in that strong of a field, and I am highly optimistic that Varner will be able to take advantage of the weaker competition this week and continue his run of strong play at Silverado.

Value-Price Tier

Dylan Frittelli 

While Dylan Frittelli simply hasn't been consistent enough to pop in any statistical models, he does possess a specific skillset that I do believe will translate incredibly well to Silverado. The South African is extremely long off the tee and he is also a deadly wedge player. Over his last 36 rounds, Frittelli ranks 19th in driving distance, 23rd in proximity from 75-100 yards, and 16th in proximity from 100-125 yards. Silverado is undeniably a driver wedge course, and it should not come as a surprise that the former John Deere Classic winner has finished 25th and 7th in two appearances at this event.

Frittelli's season has certainly been filled with ups and down, but I do believe his game is starting to come around. In his most recent start at the Northern Trust, the University of Texas product actually recorded his best ball-striking week since the Memorial in June. His off the tee metrics have been steadily improving, his irons are slowly getting there as well, and while he has struggled to find form of late with the flat-stick, Poa has been his best surface historically. We are still talking about a player that finished fifth at the November Masters and fifth at the British Open, and nearly 50% of Frittelli's career top-15 finishes have come in fall series events. I expect him to feast on Silverado this week.

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