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The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 5)


When I started writing up the column for this week, it was going to focus on the esteemed gentlemen of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bo Bichette as well as the broader shortstop landscape. Then I started looking at first base and DH and got fixated on what was happening with Cody Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani, and whether or not Luke Voit had the potential to be a top-five first baseman. Now it turns out that Yordan Alvarez is done for the season and off the chart. That's an unhappy turn of events, but there's nothing more to say about it for this season.

Similarly, Bichette's injury is a frustrating development. I had Bichette slotted just between Baez and Bogaerts. Supposedly, it's only a mild knee strain, and he'll be back before you can say, "Whoa Bichette!" Until then, I'm keeping his ranking steady. Expect an update after Bichette returns from the IL. Jon Heyman is now reporting that Bichette's injury has no timetable, but it's possible he's done for the season. If you can sell for a player at $10 or better, you should do it. If you feel like you need to settle for less, go for it.

Also, as long as we're on the subject, Jayce Tingler owes Fernando Tatis Jr. an apology, and that's all I have to say about that.

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Week 5 Overview

This week gives us quite a bit of stabilized data and the human tornado that his Jesse Winker. I'll get to him in a moment, but one anomaly that caught my attention is that Paul Goldschmidt (and other Cardinals) have seen their value jump now that they're playing baseball again. Those extra games go a long way to turning the Cards into value plays. Game limits will still apply, but there's some real room for profit from the extra at-bats.

I've added two new features to the Meta Report this week. On the Early Indicators sheet, you'll see a column labeled PA%. Plate Ratio is designed to be a simple indicator of how often a player is getting to the plate relative to their team. I'll cover it in a follow-up article, but it should help fantasy managers to see player usage in a season when there are huge discrepancies in games played.

The other new feature is the addition of a column for new max exit velocity. I pulled hitter data from the last three seasons and grabbed the maximum exit velocity from hitters over that time period to give us a baseline for this season. The column is solely there to show us if someone has recently hit a ball harder than their previous high. Given max EV's relationship to offensive breakouts, I'm hoping it will prove useful to managers.

Here are the top-200 hitters and the week 5 Meta Report. If you missed them yesterday, be sure to check out Nick Mariano's top-101 SP rankings and his top-101 RP rankings.

Rank $ Player Pos Trend
1 47.0 Mike Trout OF 0 ▬
2 43.0 Christian Yelich OF/DH 0 ▬
3 40.0 Juan Soto OF 3 ▲
4 38.0 Nolan Arenado 3B 1 ▲
5 37.0 Mookie Betts OF 3 ▲
6 35.0 Jose Ramirez 3B 1 ▲
7 35.0 Cody Bellinger OF -3 ▼
8 34.0 Trevor Story SS 4 ▲
9 32.0 Francisco Lindor SS 2 ▲
10 31.0 Bryce Harper OF 3 ▲
11 31.0 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 5 ▲
12 30.0 Alex Bregman 3B 2 ▲
13 28.0 Freddie Freeman 1B 4 ▲
14 27.0 Nelson Cruz DH 6 ▲
15 27.0 J.D. Martinez DH -5 ▼
16 27.0 Trea Turner SS -1 ▼
17 26.0 J.T. Realmuto C/1B/DH 2 ▲
18 25.0 Rafael Devers 3B -9 ▼
19 25.0 Javier Baez SS 2 ▲
20 25.0 Gleyber Torres SS -2 ▼
21 24.0 Jose Altuve 2B 2 ▲
22 23.0 Eloy Jimenez OF 7 ▲
23 23.0 Xander Bogaerts SS -1 ▼
24 23.0 Manny Machado 3B 3 ▲
25 23.0 Aaron Judge OF/DH 3 ▲
26 22.0 Charlie Blackmon OF 5 ▲
27 22.0 Marcell Ozuna OF/DH -2 ▼
28 22.0 Pete Alonso 1B -4 ▼
29 21.0 Nick Castellanos OF 8 ▲
30 21.0 Anthony Rendon 3B 2 ▲
31 21.0 George Springer OF/DH -5 ▼
32 20.0 Luis Robert OF 1 ▲
33 20.0 Starling Marte OF 2 ▲
34 20.0 Ketel Marte 2B 2 ▲
35 20.0 Bo Bichette SS -1 ▼
36 19.5 Joey Gallo OF -6 ▼
37 19.0 Eddie Rosario OF 2 ▲
38 19.0 Matt Chapman 3B 7 ▲
39 19.0 Anthony Rizzo 1B 8 ▲
40 18.0 Paul Goldschmidt 1B/DH 22 ▲
41 18.0 Eugenio Suarez 3B -3 ▼
42 18.0 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF -39 ▼
43 17.5 Kris Bryant 3B/OF/DH -3 ▼
44 17.0 Carlos Correa SS 4 ▲
45 17.0 Yoan Moncada 3B -4 ▼
46 17.0 Shohei Ohtani P/DH 40 ▲
47 16.5 Marcus Semien SS 2 ▲
48 16.0 Keston Hiura 2B/DH -5 ▼
49 16.0 Matt Olson 1B 1 ▲
50 15.5 Whit Merrifield OF 9 ▲
51 15.5 Austin Meadows OF/DH 22 ▲
52 15.5 Ramon Laureano OF/DH 3 ▲
53 15.0 Tim Anderson SS 24 ▲
54 15.0 Kyle Schwarber OF/DH -2 ▼
55 15.0 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B/DH -4 ▼
56 14.5 Gary Sanchez C/DH 11 ▲
57 14.5 Max Kepler OF 7 ▲
58 14.5 Michael Conforto OF 11 ▲
59 14.5 Justin Turner 3B 1 ▲
60 14.0 Yuli Gurriel 1B -6 ▼
61 14.0 Jonathan Villar 2B/SS/OF/DH 9 ▲
62 14.0 Jorge Soler OF/DH -6 ▼
63 13.5 Yasmani Grandal C/1B/DH 12 ▲
64 13.5 Jose Abreu 1B 15 ▲
65 13.5 Ozzie Albies 2B -21 ▼
66 13.0 Adalberto Mondesi SS -20 ▼
67 13.0 Jorge Polanco SS 4 ▲
68 13.0 Max Muncy 1B/2B/3B/DH -11 ▼
69 13.0 Giancarlo Stanton DH -8 ▼
70 12.5 Willson Contreras C/DH 2 ▲
71 12.0 Mike Moustakas 2B -8 ▼
72 11.0 Franmil Reyes DH 19 ▲
73 11.0 Victor Robles OF -7 ▼
74 11.0 Miguel Sano 1B -9 ▼
75 10.5 Eduardo Escobar 3B 5 ▲
76 10.5 David Peralta OF 26 ▲
77 10.0 Corey Seager SS/DH 6 ▲
78 10.0 Gio Urshela 3B 25 ▲
79 10.0 Josh Bell 1B/DH 5 ▲
80 10.0 Byron Buxton OF 2 ▲
81 9.5 Didi Gregorius SS 4 ▲
82 9.0 Andrew McCutchen OF/DH -4 ▼
83 9.0 Wil Myers 1B/OF/DH 51 ▲
84 9.0 Josh Donaldson 3B -16 ▼
85 8.5 Rhys Hoskins 1B/DH -4 ▼
86 8.5 Christian Vazquez C/2B/DH 6 ▲
87 8.5 Adam Eaton OF 3 ▲
88 8.0 Avisail Garcia OF/DH -1 ▼
89 8.0 Brandon Lowe 2B 23 ▲
90 8.0 Kyle Tucker OF 15 ▲
91 7.5 Alex Verdugo OF 7 ▲
92 7.5 Luke Voit 1B 22 ▲
93 7.5 Jeff McNeil 2B/3B/OF/DH -19 ▼
94 7.5 Trent Grisham OF 12 ▲
95 7.0 Salvador Perez C/1B/DH -6 ▼
96 7.0 J.D. Davis 3B/OF/DH 11 ▲
97 6.5 Brian Anderson 1B/3B/DH 21 ▲
98 6.5 Carlos Santana 1B 23 ▲
99 6.5 Howie Kendrick 1B/DH 0 ▬
100 6.5 David Dahl OF/DH -12 ▼
101 6.0 Teoscar Hernandez OF 60 ▲
102 6.0 Daniel Murphy 1B/DH 40 ▲
103 6.0 Dansby Swanson SS 6 ▲
104 6.0 Corey Dickerson OF/DH 4 ▲
105 5.5 Jonathan Schoop 2B 14 ▲
106 5.5 Randal Grichuk OF/DH 16 ▲
107 5.5 Anthony Santander OF 55 ▲
108 5.5 Renato Nunez 1B/3B/DH 17 ▲
109 5.5 Christian Walker 1B/DH 17 ▲
110 5.0 Joey Votto 1B 1 ▲
111 5.0 Mike Yastrzemski OF 20 ▲
112 4.5 Paul DeJong SS 5 ▲
113 4.5 Dylan Carlson OF 37 ▲
114 4.5 Cavan Biggio 2B/OF 26 ▲
115 4.5 Jesse Winker OF/DH 45 ▲
116 4.5 Wilson Ramos C/DH 7 ▲
117 4.5 Mitch Moreland 1B 72 ▲
118 4.0 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF/DH -17 ▼
119 4.0 Ian Happ OF 11 ▲
120 4.0 Dominic Smith 1B/OF/DH 40 ▲
121 4.0 A.J. Pollock OF/DH 18 ▲
122 4.0 Joc Pederson OF/DH 11 ▲
123 4.0 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B/SS 23 ▲
124 3.5 Kolten Wong 2B 36 ▲
125 3.5 Kyle Seager 3B 10 ▲
126 3.5 Amed Rosario SS -32 ▼
127 3.5 Jo Adell OF -34 ▼
128 3.5 Will Smith C -18 ▼
129 3.5 Rio Ruiz 3B/OF 49 ▲
130 3.5 Hunter Renfroe OF/DH -14 ▼
131 3.0 Maikel Franco 3B 13 ▲
132 3.0 Mitch Garver C/1B -36 ▼
133 3.0 Willy Adames SS 8 ▲
134 3.0 DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B -81 ▼
135 3.0 Khris Davis DH -35 ▼
136 3.0 Kyle Lewis OF 21 ▲
137 3.0 Brett Gardner OF -22 ▼
138 2.5 Yadier Molina C -2 ▼
139 2.5 Ryan Braun OF/DH -15 ▼
140 2.5 David Fletcher SS 18 ▲
141 2.5 Mark Canha 1B/OF/DH 25 ▲
142 2.5 Travis Shaw 1B/3B 9 ▲
143 2.5 Dylan Moore 1B/3B/SS/OF 38 ▲
144 2.5 J.P. Crawford SS 1 ▲
145 2.0 Asdrubal Cabrera 1B/3B/DH 11 ▲
146 2.0 Tommy Edman 3B/SS 19 ▲
147 2.0 Eric Hosmer 1B 7 ▲
148 2.0 Aaron Hicks OF -1 ▼
149 2.0 Shin-Soo Choo OF/DH 6 ▲
150 1.5 Victor Caratini C/1B/DH 3 ▲
151 1.5 Pedro Severino C/DH 49 ▲
152 1.5 Elvis Andrus SS -15 ▼
153 1.5 Jesus Aguilar 1B/DH 46 ▲
154 1.5 Kurt Suzuki C/DH 5 ▲
155 1.5 Donovan Solano 2B/3B/SS 45 ▲
156 1.5 Austin Slater OF/DH 44 ▲
157 1.5 Oscar Mercado OF/DH -60 ▼
158 1.0 Nick Ahmed SS 42 ▲
159 1.0 Jean Segura 2B/3B/SS -46 ▼
160 1.0 Nick Senzel OF -32 ▼
161 1.0 Niko Goodrum SS 10 ▲
162 1.0 Bryan Reynolds OF -30 ▼
163 1.0 Travis d'Arnaud C/DH 37 ▲
164 1.0 Cesar Hernandez 2B -16 ▼
165 1.0 Danny Jansen C 9 ▲
166 1.0 Nick Solak OF 31 ▲
167 1.0 Sean Murphy C 1 ▲
168 1.0 Ryan McMahon 1B/2B -5 ▼
169 1.0 Kevin Newman 2B/SS 7 ▲
170 1.0 Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 3B/OF/DH 30 ▲
171 1.0 Omar Narvaez C -22 ▼
172 1.0 Willie Calhoun OF/DH -34 ▼
173 1.0 Edwin Encarnacion DH -69 ▼
174 1.0 Luis Arraez 2B -1 ▼
175 1.0 JaCoby Jones OF -8 ▼
176 1.0 Tommy La Stella 1B/2B/DH 4 ▲
177 1.0 Yandy Diaz 1B/3B/DH 0 ▬
178 1.0 Brandon Nimmo OF 20 ▲
179 1.0 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/3B/SS 21 ▲
180 1.0 Austin Romine C 20 ▲
181 1.0 Miguel Cabrera DH 1 ▲
182 1.0 Justin Smoak 1B/DH 4 ▲
183 1.0 Daulton Varsho C/OF/DH 17 ▲
184 1.0 Shogo Akiyama OF 1 ▲
185 1.0 Rowdy Tellez 1B/DH 15 ▲
186 1.0 Danny Santana 1B/OF/DH 2 ▲
187 1.0 Eric Thames 1B/DH 13 ▲
188 1.0 Carson Kelly P/C -19 ▼
189 1.0 Andrelton Simmons SS 11 ▲
190 1.0 Max Stassi C 10 ▲
191 1.0 Garrett Hampson 2B/OF/DH 1 ▲
192 1.0 Ji-Man Choi 1B 8 ▲
193 1.0 Daniel Vogelbach DH -2 ▼
194 1.0 Scott Kingery 2B/SS/OF -11 ▼
195 1.0 Andrew Benintendi OF -100 ▼
196 1.0 Kike Hernandez 2B 4 ▲
197 1.0 Nomar Mazara OF -13 ▼
198 1.0 Matt Carpenter 3B/DH -3 ▼
199 1.0 Alec Bohm 3B 2 ▲
200 1.0 Michael Brantley OF/DH -124 ▼

Jesse Winker (Reds, OF)

Winker is the last player added to this article, but he's the first player I'm featuring because players like Winker are the entire reason I wanted to start assembling the Meta Report. The truth is that I've followed Winker's progress since he was in AA. His bat-to-ball skills, elite batter's eye, and strong GB/FB ratio seemed like a recipe for a guaranteed all-star. However, I gave up on Winker after his 2018 season when he teased with 90.9 average exit velocity and  a 42.2% hard-hit rate but a .132 ISO.
I should have paid more credence to his 16 HR campaign last season when he slugged for a .204 ISO, but I looked at the Reds bringing in outfielders and wrote Winker off as a platoon player.
A quick look at Winker's line on the Early Indicator's Delta page shows us exactly why he is no platoon player. If you look at that data, you aren't reading it wrong. For the last two weeks, Jesse Winker has put up an absurd 27.3% barrels per plate appearance. That rate is 23.7% higher than the 4.3% barrel rate Winker owned last year when he compiled that .204 ISO.
I'm going to leave a full swing breakdown to our own Mike Kurland, who has been churning out swing-analysis like a well-seasoned scout. However, it looks to me like Winker is getting a bit lower as the ball is coming in and doing a better job at planting his front foot in order to create the pivot and leverage.
Winker has used a fairly upright swing and generally done a bit more to slash at the ball. This year, he appears to be loading more, swinging more aggressively, and relying on his bat control. The more aggressive approach is not without penalty: Winker's swinging-strike rate has jumped from 5.8% in 2018 to 12.1% this year. However, the change has allowed Winker to hit the ball much harder this season. His average exit velocity is up to 94.1 MPH, and his max EV is 111.9 MPH. Last year, Winker did manage a 110 MPH max velo, but his average EV was a mere 89.1 MPH (the 46th percentile).
Winker is a real hitter. We've always known that. Now, he's found a way to leverage that skill into slugging power. Let's see where this goes.

Luke Voit (Yankees, 1B)

One player who could definitely use some extra at-bats is the Yankees' 29-year-old first baseman. Despite owning a career .229 ISO and .273 batting average, Luke Voit entered 2020 as something of a sleeper pick. There were still plenty of analysts championing his value, but the projection systems were way down on him. A close look at the playing time showed why: Voit was only projected for somewhere between 60% and 75% share of the at-bats.

Some of that was an already crowded Yankees' lineup, and some of it was tied to lingering injury concerns. However, unlike Judge and Stanton, Voit's injuries have been a bit more discrete and limited in nature. For instance, 2019's sports hernia should be a less chronic concern than Stanton's troubled legs or Judge's wrist/shoulder/rib issues.

Where does that leave Voit now? Well, it's pretty close to where he's been the last few weeks. Voit appeared to be in good health during March when he played ten games without issue. Rather than adjusting for that, the projections held steady on Voit's playing time, and it's only over the last two weeks that they've started to trend up towards where we've had him since the preseason. At this point, Voit would need a season-ending injury or a four-week slump for him not to outperform even his updated projections that put him around a $3 player and rank 140. Instead, this new rank bumps him into the top 100 and projects him to maintain production a bit below his current pace.

I'd love to push Voit into the top 70 right now, but there are two major impediments: playing time and his BB/K ratio.

The Yankees still don't seem committed to playing Voit nine games out of ten. The injury to D.J. LeMahieu may change that, but it remains to be seen. Secondly, Voit's K% has edged higher from 2019's 27.8% to 31.1% this year. Meanwhile, his BB% has fallen from 13.9% to 6.8%%. Yes, this is the year of high-K hitters who are dominating the fantasy rankings (e.g., Fernando Tatis Jr., Matt Chapman, and Luis Robert), but I'm not convinced that a .22 BB/K rate is OK. Strikeout rate is one of the first predictive stats to stabilize, and Voit's number suggests he might be selling out for power. That 31.1 K% puts Voit too close to boom-or-bust players like Franmil Reyes, Teoscar Hernandez, and Maikel Franco. That's a valuable group, but it's not the same territory as rocks like Jose Abreu.

Fortunately, Voit still only has 74 plate appearances, so there's plenty of time for those ratios to normalize. Voit is probably a buy-high candidate in many leagues, but right now, his value likely maxes out in the $12 range.

 

Cody Bellinger (1B, Dodgers)

It's easy to blame these early-season struggles on Bellinger's swing change, and maybe we should. It's difficult to fathom how a player can come off an MVP season and think that he needs to change his swing, but that type of motivation and desire for progress are what push guys like Bellinger to become MVPs in the first place. Moreover, if Manfred and the owners had consented to give us more than our 60-game pittance, there would be less anxiety and compulsion to downgrade a player like Bellinger before we've even played a month of baseball.

In this context, Bellinger's poor start demands attention and adjustment. Even if he settles in by the end of this week, Bellinger would need a remarkable hot streak to reach the $43 value we had for him at the start of the year. At this point, ZiPS, Steamer, and Depth Charts have all dropped Bellinger's projection from a comfortable 4th overall to around 30th. That's the fickleness of early-season projections, but there's good evidence to support the change.

Bellinger's contact profile is dramatically different than last season. His infield-flyball rate has increased from 8.9% to 12.9%. His ground-ball rate has surged from 31.5.% to 41.0%. Similarly, his line-drive and flyball rates have dropped by 7% and 3.5%, respectively.

Those are not the kind of changes you want to see in a batted-ball profile. Bellinger's sweet-spot ratio is a career-worst 21.5%. Despite his launch angle being almost identical to last year's, Bellinger is not actually launching the ball the same way he was last season. The similarity is primarily coincidence. If there is any good news here, it's that Bellinger's max exit velocity and average exit velocity are basically the same as last year, and his xwOBA (.317) is far better than his actual wOBA (.236). His five home runs have been nice, and the Dodgers have padded his counting stats, but managers who drafted him are definitely operating at a loss.

Shohei Ohtani (Angels, DH)

Ohtani might be the only player in history where an injury has actually improved his fantasy value. Now that the Angels have committed to using him as an every day DH, Ohtani will see more at-bats, and managers will be able to start him with greater confidence, especially in weekly leagues. Since returning to the lineup after straining his flexor-pronator mass, Ohtani has batted .276 with 2 HR, 6 R, 3 RBI, and snuck in a stolen base for good measure.

At the risk of over-hyping the value, Ohtani's per-game projections would make him more valuable than Nelson Cruz if the Angels keep him in the lineup for the rest of the season. To be clear, that will push him into the top-15 hitters. What would that look like over 162 games? 88 R, 32 HR, 104 RBI, 16 SB, .272 BA, and .345 OBP.

Mitch Moreland (Red Sox, 1B)

As I'm writing this, Moreland is the fifth most valuable first basemen so far this season. Despite his middling projections and not having particularly strong predictive stats, I struggled with what to do with him last week when his sustained performance had pushed him past hitters like Matt Olson, Yuli Gurriel, and Pete Alonso. I'd like to admit that I failed you.

In this case, another week has boosted Moreland's batted-ball-events over 30 and his plate appearances to just under 50, so we're approaching some stabilization points for his data. Moreland's 2020 barrel rate has been an impressive 16.3% so far, but the smallish sample means that his seven barrels have had an outsized effect (6 HR) on his $6 earned value so far.

We've seen more Moreland go on hot-streaks like this before, so this type of production isn't out of the question for him. It's whether he can stay on the field and sustain something close to a 110 wRC+ for the rest of the season, and that's where things seem less likely since he's only done it three times in the last decade. Despite those limitations, Moreland did provide a 112 wRC+ last season, but his final stats calculate out as a negative value because he only played 91 games. If we extend his numbers out to 140 games played, he ends up closer to a $7 player, which would have made his performance the rough equivalent of Rhys Hoskins in 2019.

Moreland's track record and ability to provide per-game value is significant. He's currently owned in just 33% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, so his price is perfectly reasonable. Moreland has already had knee trouble, and the Red Sox have practiced gentle use with him. The $3 ranking reflects his ability to sustain something like that 112 wRC+ pace from last year and the fact that he might disappear to the IL at any time.

Miguel Andujar (Yankees, DH)

Seven days ago, I dropped Andujar down to around 250 on my list — I don't publish that many. When the Yankees left him at their reserve site, I just reconciled myself to the fact that no matter his talent, Andujar wasn't going to be fantasy relevant this season. Even with Judge missing time, the team seems inclined to use Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman to bridge the gap. Then the Yankees recalled Andujar and played him two games in a row. Welcome back,  Miggy! Just kidding, they sat him back down last night. So long, Mr. Andujar.

At this point, it's not at all clear what will happen with Andujar. His ceiling is top-50 hitter, but if he's not going to play, it's an automatic drop. Monitor the situation, but I don't think Andujar is likely to be useful this season.

Mitch Garver (Twins, C)

I counseled someone to be patient with Garver the other day, and I've regretted it ever since. Even for a catcher, Garver has been unsustainably bad. Most notably, as he approaches the 60 PA threshold, his K% is lingering at 37.9%%.

Like Bellinger, there are still some positives with Garver. His sweet-spot percentage is down by only 1.6%. His average exit velocity is down by only 1.3 MPH. And his max EV from 2019 was 109.7 MPH, only 1.6 MPH higher than the 108.1 that he already has this season. Last but not least, Garver's chase rate is down by 7%, a huge drop.

It's too early to write off Garver entirely, but his drop here does consider the unexpected nature of his 2019 breakout. Given that Garver has been taking more pitches this season, it's possible that it's just a matter of him needing to be more aggressive at the plate, but managers should start looking for more useful options.

Teoscar Hernandez (Blue Jays, OF)

Hernandez is an interesting case. His walk rate is down to almost unsustainable levels (2.5%), and he's chasing more pitches out of the zone (32.8 O-Swing%). However, he's hitting the ball harder and with a better launch angle than ever before, and Hernandez was a Statcast darling before this season.

Hernandez is swinging a bit more than last season (48.5% versus 47.3%), and he's actually swinging at pitches inside the zone less often (63.3% versus 72.9%). He's simply pummeling the baseball, as demonstrated by his 11.3% barrel rate.

The 27-year-old wouldn't be the first high-velocity hitter to eschew walks in favor of driving the ball, but that walk rate is in the 6th percentile, and it's hard not to forecast meaningful regression. However, Hernandez may be evolving into a player like Javier Baez, who has made a career from hitting the ball hard and walking only if the pitcher walks over and rips the bat out of his hands.

Matt Chapman (Athletics, 3B)

Like Hernandez, Chapman has been more aggressive this season. His 4% walk rate is a career-low. Unlike Hernandez, Chapman has an established history of patience and plate discipline. Chapman's 44.6% swing rate is a bit higher than last year 42.2%, but it's really his Swinging-Strike rate that has spiked from 9.2% last year to 13.2% this season.

That huge bump suggests that Chapman is being more aggressive early in the count and then hitting more defensively later on. The change would explain his increased power that has allowed him to smack six home runs and 17 RBI already this season.

The underlying stats are even more compelling. Chapman's barrel rate has soared to 10.9% while his exit velocity has improved to 93.3 MPH, and his launch angle has peaked near the optimal 25.7°. The combination has Chapman's xwOBA at .351, so there's a real chance we haven't seen his best yet.

 

 

 




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T.J. Hockenson5 months ago

T.J. Hockenson Activated From COVID List
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Miami Dolphins Sign Chester Rogers
Peter Barrett5 months ago

Peter Barrett Unable To Get His First Octagon Win
Erik Jones5 months ago

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Youssef Zalal5 months ago

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MMA5 months ago

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Irwin Rivera5 months ago

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Oakland Athletics5 months ago

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Jarvis Landry5 months ago

Jarvis Landry Activated From PUP List
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Carey Price Blanks Penguins In Series Clinching Game 4
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Oliver Ekman-Larsson Quietly Adds to Growing Point Total
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Chris Paul Leads Team in Scoring Again
5 months ago

Luguentz Dort Stays Productive
5 months ago

Ja Morant Posts 19 Points And Nine Assists
5 months ago

Jonas Valanciunas Extends Double-Double Streak
5 months ago

Dillon Brooks Scores Game-High 22 Points
5 months ago

Zach Plesac A Risky Play Saturday
Utah Jazz5 months ago

Tony Bradley Records A Double-Double Off The Bench
Utah Jazz5 months ago

Jordan Clarkson Leads Jazz With 24 Points
San Antonio Spurs5 months ago

DeMar DeRozan Remains Quiet On Friday
San Antonio Spurs5 months ago

Jakob Poeltl Ends Double-Double Drought
San Antonio Spurs5 months ago

Derrick White Scores Team-High 24 Points
Atlanta Braves5 months ago

Braves and Phillies Game Postponed Due To Weather
5 months ago

Joey Logano Will Start On The Pole At Michigan
Texas Rangers5 months ago

Joey Gallo Out Of Lineup On Friday
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Cam Bedrosian Not Throwing Yet
Peter Barrett5 months ago

Peter Barrett Looks To Build From Contender Series Win
Jason Day5 months ago

Is Jason Day Back?
Brooks Koepka5 months ago

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Jordan Spieth5 months ago

Can Jordan Spieth Keep It Within The Trees?
Rory McIlroy5 months ago

Rory McIlroy Hopes To Overcome Recent Woes
5 months ago

Joey Wendle At Shortstop Tuesday
5 months ago

Mookie Betts Participates In Modified Hitting Drill
5 months ago

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Leads Thunder With 24 Points
6 months ago

Shogo Akiyama Leading Off On Friday
6 months ago

Ryan Yarbrough Looking To Keep Momentum Going Thursday
6 months ago

Travis d'Arnaud, Tyler Flowers Activated Wednesday
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Kevin Newman Gets Day Off On Wednesday
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Khris Davis Absent Versus Rockies
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Ji-Man Choi Leaves Tuesday's Game Early
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Tanner Roark Terrific In Win Over Nationals

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More Recent Articles

 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 7

It's Week 7 and we are officially halfway through the fantasy regular season. With fingers crossed that the season continues to operate with minimal disruption, we can allow football to the forefront of our minds as it appears all games will be played as scheduled this week. Assuming that's the case, fantasy GMs rostering Ravens,... Read More


Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 7 Lineups

Week 6 in the NFL brought what may be one of the cleanest weeks of action to begin the season. With no catastrophic injuries affecting teams for the remainder of the year, the play on the field seemed to settle in as the more well-known players performed up to par. With big weeks from Derrick... Read More


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 400)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: DeSean Jackson Helped Off The Field Thursday Night K.J. Hamler Could Make His Return In Week 7 Devonta Freeman Questionable To Return Monday Night Michael Thomas Officially... Read More


Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 6 Analysis

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward your primary goal of securing league championships. As this unique regular season continues to unfold, an expanding assortment of tools is available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge regarding this critical position. Those results are contained in this weekly statistical breakdown of multiple categories,... Read More


Week 7 IDP Rankings, Streamers, and Notes

The big IDP news of the week happened just this Thursday morning, as our rankings were being finalized. It was pretty big news, too. Yannick Ngakoue was traded to the Baltimore Ravens! Let’s discuss just how big this news is, and whether it’s good or bad for his short and long term fantasy prospects, shall... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings, tiers, player news and stats for Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings  ... Read More


Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Week 7

The fantasy trade market is always a fun one to evaluate. Articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" pieces but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to trade for those that are cold and trade away those hot. Now, six weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming... Read More


Re-Evaluating the Rookie Running Back Class of 2020

We're six weeks into the 2020 NFL season and are starting to get some good ideas of what usage patterns are looking like. Which means we probably have enough data now to start to re-evaluate where certain players stand in relation to other players. For example, we've got a better idea of how this year's... Read More


WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid - Week 7

The CB Matchup Chart has been a helpful resource all season, specifically in Week 6. Last week's article was predictive in forecasting boom games for Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, and Christian Kirk. It also predicted let-downs from Robby Anderson, Cooper Kupp, and Mike Evans. This week's chart will give the most accurate landscape of CB matchups yet,... Read More


Pivot Plays and Post-Waiver Pickups - Week 7

Things are starting to get difficult for fantasy football managers. Indianapolis, Minnesota, Miami and Baltimore all have the week off, so fantasy managers are already playing shorthanded. Fielding a full lineup is going to be tough as it is if you have a few injuries. If one of your key guys is listed as questionable... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Shallow and Deep-League Pickups

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season. Each week we will be providing streamer advice for all of those who need it, which is pretty much anyone and everyone. Streaming players with the best matchups each week as well as during your stud's bye weeks is an integral part of winning a fantasy championship... Read More


Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Football Statistics (Week 7)

The more data we get as the season goes on, the better equipped we are to interpret matchups and make informed decisions. Then Week 6 comes along and blows it all to hell. The unpredictability of sports is what keeps us intrigued, as frustrating as it may be at times. Numbers are supposedly to be... Read More


Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 7

It's Week 7 and we are officially halfway through the fantasy regular season. With fingers crossed that the season continues to operate with minimal disruption, we can allow football to the forefront of our minds as it appears all games will be played as scheduled this week. Assuming that's the case, fantasy GMs rostering Ravens,... Read More


Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 7 Lineups

Week 6 in the NFL brought what may be one of the cleanest weeks of action to begin the season. With no catastrophic injuries affecting teams for the remainder of the year, the play on the field seemed to settle in as the more well-known players performed up to par. With big weeks from Derrick... Read More


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 400)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: DeSean Jackson Helped Off The Field Thursday Night K.J. Hamler Could Make His Return In Week 7 Devonta Freeman Questionable To Return Monday Night Michael Thomas Officially... Read More


Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 6 Analysis

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Week 7 IDP Rankings, Streamers, and Notes

The big IDP news of the week happened just this Thursday morning, as our rankings were being finalized. It was pretty big news, too. Yannick Ngakoue was traded to the Baltimore Ravens! Let’s discuss just how big this news is, and whether it’s good or bad for his short and long term fantasy prospects, shall... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings, tiers, player news and stats for Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings  ... Read More


Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Week 7

The fantasy trade market is always a fun one to evaluate. Articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" pieces but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to trade for those that are cold and trade away those hot. Now, six weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming... Read More


Re-Evaluating the Rookie Running Back Class of 2020

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WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid - Week 7

The CB Matchup Chart has been a helpful resource all season, specifically in Week 6. Last week's article was predictive in forecasting boom games for Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, and Christian Kirk. It also predicted let-downs from Robby Anderson, Cooper Kupp, and Mike Evans. This week's chart will give the most accurate landscape of CB matchups yet,... Read More


Pivot Plays and Post-Waiver Pickups - Week 7

Things are starting to get difficult for fantasy football managers. Indianapolis, Minnesota, Miami and Baltimore all have the week off, so fantasy managers are already playing shorthanded. Fielding a full lineup is going to be tough as it is if you have a few injuries. If one of your key guys is listed as questionable... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Shallow and Deep-League Pickups

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Football Statistics (Week 7)

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The King's Week 7 Fantasy Football Lineup Rankings (Premium Content)

Welcome back, RotoBallers!  Below you will find my Week 7 fantasy football lineup rankings. The ranks are available in PPR, Half PPR and Standard formats. They will be updated as needed, so make sure to check back for the latest versions. Skill Position analysis is primarily based on the PPR ranks. The rankings are powered by... Read More


Slow Starters Ready to Break Out in Fantasy?

We are now more than a third of the way into the fantasy football season and a seemingly clearer picture is available across the landscape. After a pandemic-shortened offseason and lack of preseason exposure, there were plenty of worries headed into the first month specifically. Thus far, one of the most prevalent topics with regards... Read More


Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 7

The warning signals get brighter by the week since we have more data to work from. The larger the sample size the easier it is for us to connect the dots from the latest trends. Football is a game of small samples and many variables, making it one of the hardest sports to predict. How... Read More


How to Value Clyde Edwards-Helaire with Le'Veon Bell in KC

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NextGen Stats - Quarterback Breakdowns and Takeaways

It's been a month since the last time we took a look at our beloved quarterbacks. Numbers are numbers, and numbers don't lie. You can twist them, but looking at them objectively, numbers say that no matter what, rushing the ball is almost always a worse option than passing it in today's game. That's why... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 6

This series continues into its sixth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value. In Week 6, we saw performances such as Ryan Tannehill throwing for 364 passing yards, the Houston Texans running backs combining for 66 rushing yards, and the New... Read More


Tape Tells All: D'Andre Swift's Week 6 Performance

Welcome to another edition of Tape Tells All. I've been thinking of rebranding as just TAPE. All-Caps like that. Probably wouldn't be a good idea for SEO purposes, right? Anyways, this week we'll be discussing Detroit Lions rookie running back D'Andre Swift. Swift set a lot of career highs this week, with bests in carries... Read More


Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

Week 6 was like the 2020 of fantasy football weeks. All those great matchups meant nothing, those studs let you down, and your bench likely went crazy. The good news is that we didn't have any season-ending injuries to running backs or games canceled due to COVID, so in retrospect maybe we shouldn't complain. The... Read More


FAB Bidding - Week 7 Waiver Wire Targets

Whether it's injuries, bye-week blues, or simply poor performance, we've got the waiver-wire cure...but it just might cost you! Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 7 Lightning Round

Week 6 was relatively healthy and had no coronavirus delays, so let's just take a moment to bask in that. That said, we still saw Miles Sanders (knee) and Zach Ertz (ankle) go down, while Mark Ingram (ankle) has a bye to get healthy. Week 7 byes are Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami, and Minnesota. Let's get... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Fantasy GMs are to be commended for rising to the unique challenges that have unfolded during this regular season. Injuries to critical players is an unwelcome reality that occurs every year. This is also the case for backs that were expected to operate as RB1s, but have been relegated to committees. However, this season has... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Six weeks of NFL football are behind us, aside from a pair of Monday games, including a late afternoon game between the Bills and the Chiefs. In terms of wide receiver production this week, we didn't have the huge breakouts like we had in Week 5. Chase Claypool didn't score four touchdowns. In fact, only... Read More


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Dissecting Contact Quality In Search Of Fantasy Bargains

Of the 1,015 hitters sampled(1) between 2015 and 2019, there were only 14 instances of hitters making more productive contact against pitches outside of the strike zone than against pitches inside of the strike zone based on xwOBAcon. Based on the same sample, the average hitter was a whopping .116 points better against pitches inside... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 23rd, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 23rd, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Lineup Order Risers and Fallers: AL West 2020 Review

It’s the offseason and there are about to be a bunch of moving parts. This allows for speculation in terms of players gaining or losing playing time, moving up or down a batting order and much more. The idea here is to highlight some lineup situations for each team and some potential winners or losers... Read More


2021 1st & 2nd Year Players with James Anderson - Benched with Bubba (Episode 317)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) on episode 317. The guys will go over 30+ first and second-year players. They will discuss their current ADP's in the 2 Early Mocks, what to expect of the players in 2021, and much more. They also go over some listener questions, compare Juan Soto to Mike... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 21st, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 21st, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 20th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 20th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 54: 2 Early Mocks APD Player Debates - Benched with Bubba (Episode 316)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They go over some of the positions and look at players with similar ADPs and debate. Going around the diamond discussing some players people are high on and some they are down on with a... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 18th, 2020

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Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 17th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 17th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


2021 Early Mock ADP Values & Reaches: WPC+ Videocast

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut prepare for the 2021 fantasy baseball season with a look at early mock draft results from the RotoBaller Expert mock. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller... Read More


Statcast Season Review: 2020 Barrel Leaders (Hitters)

The 2020 MLB season will always be one for the record books, even if everything that took place will have multiple asterisks attached to it. Evaluating Statcast numbers is a nice way to find hot and cold hitters, as well as underachievers and overachievers. Now that the regular season is over, let's reflect on the... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 16th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 16th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 15th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 15th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


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