Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 13

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Week 13 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 13. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 13 Picks

Aaron Rodgers - PHI @ GB ($6,800)

This is shaping up to be an extremely difficult week at the QB position, as the “elite” options on the slate have less-than-desirable matchups across the board. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is no exception, as he faces a Philly defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest DK points in the NFL to the QB position. 

However, Rodgers has demonstrated the ability to thrive in almost any matchup. He’s thrown for three or more TDs in eight of Green Bay’s 11 games this year and has only truly “failed” in one game this year...a mid-season road matchup against Tampa Bay. That floor - and efficiency that leads to him averaging 25.5 DK Points per game - is why I’m willing to target Rodgers on a slate that lacks a true “smash” spot at the QB position.

Kirk Cousins - JAX @ MIN ($6,400)

With so much attention paid to Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook over the past several weeks (rightly so), it’s easy to forget about Kirk Cousins. It’s forgivable, as the Vikings truly strive to be a run-first football team. However, Cousins has been hyper-efficient when asked to throw the ball (Check out his Week 12 performance vs Carolina in the NFL Next Gen Stats chart below), ranking second in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.70). He has certainly answered the bell as of late, throwing for 621 yards and six TDs over Minnesota’s last two. Cousins has a great chance to stay hot in Week 13 against a horrid - and banged up - Jacksonville defense that’s allowed five 300+ passing yard games to opposing QBs this season. The Jags rank dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt relinquished to opposing QBs (8.29) and have allowed the second-most passing TDs in the league.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

In the Aaron Rodgers write-up I mentioned that this is an extremely difficult week at the QB position. That sentiment truly extends to this slate as a whole, as Week 13 has proven to be a difficult DFS nut to crack, with not a lot of clear, elite options outside of some value plays that will be very chalky. Specifically at the QB spot, Rodgers does stand out from the rest for me due to his affordability at just $6.8k and rock-solid floor. Of the higher-end options, my preference is Houston's Deshaun Watson, a player that's looked dominant in Houston's last two. Unfortunately, Watson will be without his best receiver in a tough matchup against the Colts. However, he still brings explosive upside to the table, as well as a floor that's aided by his rushing ability. As we dip below this article's other highlighted QB, Kirk Cousins, there's not a ton to love. The trio of Taysom Hill, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are all certainly playable, but none come with strong indicators that a monster DFS day is in the works. If you are deep diving or desperate for salary, Chicago's Mitch Trubisky has routinely shown that he can provide useful DFS scores while being horrible in reality.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 13 Picks

Dalvin Cook - JAX @ MIN ($9,500)

The entire DFS world was on Dalvin Cook last week in a game in which he heavily disappointed. Cook posted just 11.2 DK Points against Carolina and was forced to briefly leave the game with an ankle injury. DraftKings has held firm on Cook's massive $9.5k price tag in Week 13, which might make many reluctant to go back to Minnesota's stud this week. I'm going to keep a close eye on ownership projections as the week progresses. If it looks as though Cook is going under-owned, I won't hesitate to bet on a bounce-back performance against a Jags defense that stands 27th in the NFL in DK Points allowed to the RB position.

Miles Sanders - PHI @ GB ($6,700)

If you're a Miles Sanders "truther", it's been a rough year, as Sanders has been plagued with injuries. When he has been healthy, Sanders has averaged an impressive 5.6 yards per carry for an Eagles offense that - if we're being honest - looks broken the majority of the time. If we dig into the Philly schedule, we find that Sanders has been faced with brutal matchups against some of the league's best run-stopping units - Seattle, Cleveland, NYG, Baltimore, & Pittsburgh among them - but he'll get a reprieve this week against a Packers Defense that has routinely been decimated on the ground. Green Bay ranks 30th in the NFL in DK Points allowed to RBs and has allowed four 100+ yard rushing games to opponents this season.

David Montgomery - DET @ CHI ($5,500)

Listen, there's no need to beat around the bush, David Montgomery isn't good. If you watch tape this isn't a secret. However, he's pretty much all the Bears have...which sometimes makes him a viable, volume-driven DFS option. That's the case this week against the Detroit Lions, a team that recently fired their head coach and has defined "Meh" on the field this year. The Lions have especially struggled to stop the run. They rank dead last in the NFL in DK Points and rushing TDs allowed to the RB position, while also relinquishing a massive 4.62 yards per carry to opposing rushers. So...while we might not be crazy about Montgomery's talent level, his consistent workload and this matchup make him an intriguing salary saver.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

The big news came late Friday afternoon, as Raiders' running back Josh Jacobs was ruled OUT for Week 13. This news thrusts Devontae Booker and his $5.5k price tag squarely into the DFS mix, with Booker now expected to be one of the most popular value plays on the slate. The Jets are horrible, but their run defense has been one of their strong suits this season. However, this doesn't quite feel like the "Brian Hill for Atlanta" situation last week, as Booker has looked explosive in spot duty for Las Vegas this season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and breaking off four runs of 20+ yards. Derrick Henry traditionally gets stronger late in the season, and that was undoubtedly the case against Indy last week, but his 41.5-point explosion against the Colts has resulted in a massive $9.2k price tag this week. It's tempting to ride the "runaway freight train" that is Henry, but we do have to remember that this is very high price to pay for a "yardage and TD back" in a scoring format that is full PPR. The same can be said for the back on the other side of that CLE vs TEN matchup, Nick Chubb, a player that is the same as Henry in many respects, but comes in at $1,500 cheaper. Jacksonville's James Robinson continues to be a workhorse and projects as a rock-solid option against Minnesota, while LA's Austin Ekeler returned from an extended absence last week to garner 23(!!!) touches and deserves serious consideration at $7.1k. Alvin Kamara has been horrible since Taysom Hill entered the starting lineup for the Saints, but he's an intriguing contrarian option on this type of slate. Indy's Jonathan Taylor is set to return from the COVID-19 list against a terrible Houston run defense. Taylor logged 26 touches in his last start in Week 11.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 13 Picks

Adam Thielen - JAX @ MIN ($7,300) 

In case you hadn't noticed yet, I'll be targeting Vikings this week. Many will be content to go right back to the Justin Jefferson well (#MeToo), but I'm intrigued with the idea of locking in a higher-priced, but lower-owned Adam Thielen. Thielen missed last week's game due to COVID protocol but has reportedly suffered no symptoms or ill effects. If he's healthy, he's in a tremendous spot against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary that's allowed a massive 9.32 yards per target to opposing WRs this season - the second-highest mark in the NFL. As if the Jags weren't already struggling enough, they will likely be without both of their starting cornerbacks (C.J. Henderson is on IR and Sidney Jones is Questionable with an Achilles injury) in Week 13. Volume is a concern with this Minnesota passing attack, but Thielen has shown the ability to post slate-breaking scores this season.

Brandin Cooks - IND @ HOU ($5,600) & Michael Pittman Jr. - IND @ HOU ($4,900)

With a projected point total of 53 and a tight three-point spread, this IND vs HOU matchup could be a sneaky shootout. Houston's Will Fuller was suspended for PED use this week, which leaves Brandin Cooks as the alpha in this Texans receiving corps. Cooks' usage had already been on the rise after Bill O'Brien's departure and Fuller's absence will elevate it to the point that double-digit targets should be expected every week. The concern is that teams will shadow or double Cooks with Fuller off the field, however, that's hard to accomplish due to his ability to line up all over the field. This NFL Next Gen Stats Route Chart illustrates where Cooks lined up on completed passes last week against Detroit:

On the other side of this matchup, rookie Michael Pittman Jr. has made his presence known since returning from a multi-week absence due to injury. Pittman has been targeted 28 times since returning to the lineup in Week 8. He draws a mouth-watering matchup against a Houston secondary that will be without Bradley Roby (it's only decent cover man) this week. The Texans have struggled mightily against receivers and are allowing a massive 70.2% catch rate to opposing pass catchers.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Like the QB position, several high-profile WRs are in difficult matchups. However, Davante Adams and DK Metcalf may well be "matchup proof", while Keenan Allen's massive volume always puts him into consideration. Tennessee's AJ Brown sat out Thursday's practice but is good to go...Brown continues to demonstrate his explosive upside on a consistent basis. Michael Thomas tormented Atlanta for 104 yards on nine catches just two weeks ago and comes in at an affordable $7k. Justin Jefferson's breakout rookie season continued with a 26.0-point performance against Carolina last week. I'm always interested in DeVante Parker when FitzMagic is at the helm for Miami. LA's Robert Woods is garnering a lot of buzz around the DFS industry at just $5.9k and he's been targeted 27 times over the Rams last two. New York's Denzel Mims and Houston's Keke Coutee are my favorite value options at the position this week...Mims has a ridiculous aDOT of 16.1 and was targeted eight times in Sam Darnold's return last week. Coutee steps into what should be a substantial role in a decimated Texans receiving corps at just $3.5k.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 13 Picks

Mike Gesicki - CIN @ MIA ($4,200)

With no Travis Kelce on the Main Slate, I'll be looking to save salary at the TE position this week. Miami's Mike Gesicki sticks out at $4.2k against a Cincinnati Bengals team that has struggled to slow down opposing TEs this season. The Bengals rank dead last in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the TE position (718) and steadily bled DK Points (15.6 per game) to opposing TEs. Gesicki's viability this week rests on Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the start (check Saturday Updates section!), but it currently looks as though FitzMagic will get at least one more week at the helm of this Dolphins offense. Gesicki leads all NFL tight ends with an aDOT of 11.1-yards and Fitzpatrick's willingness to push the ball downfield gives the athletic TE the type of upside that we need in GPPs.

Robert Tonyan - PHI @ GB ($3,700)

Aaron Rodgers is so good at throwing the ball to whoever might be open, that it's tough to trust any Green Bay pass catcher not named Davante Adams. However, Robert Tonyan has unquestionably emerged this season, running routes on 84.5% of his offensive snaps and becoming a trusted-enough target for Rodgers to garner 14 targets over Green Bay's last three games. He heads into Week 13 on the heels of strong back-to-back performances in which he's combined for 111 yards and 2 TDs on 10 catches. Tonyan will square off against an Eagles Defense that's allowed 547 receiving yards and 6 TDs to the TE position this season.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Everyone's favorite position! Yeah...that was sarcasm. The TE spot has been a routinely difficult one throughout the season and this week is similarly murky, as the top option, Darren Waller, has failed to break seven DK points in two of the Raiders last three games. I'd almost rather take the discount and roll with Detroit's TJ Hockenson at $5k with Kenny Golladay once again ruled OUT for the Lions. I had a lot of success with Minnesota's Kyle Rudolph last week and I'm willing to go back to the well at $3.4k with Irv Smith Jr. once again ruled OUT for the Vikings against Jacksonville. Tennessee's Jonnu Smith has also been ruled OUT, which opens the door for Anthony Firkser and his miniscule $2.5k price tag. Firkser's a punt, but not a bad one.

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