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Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 23
Champ or Chump - Willie Calhoun and Ronald Acuna
Our friends at FantasyPros have started offering composite Average Draft Position (ADP) data from the earliest 2018 drafts. Currently, data is only available from FanTrax and NFBC, but other popular platforms such as Yahoo!, RTSports, and CBS will be added as it becomes available. ADP is influenced by the host site's default rankings, so composite... Read More
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Champ or Chump - Brandon Moss and Todd Frazier
The theme of this article is cheap power. As more players than ever before start cracking 20 homers, fantasy owners can rely on legitimate power bats remaining available in the latter stages of their draft. Some owners believe that this allows them to wait on power, but the league-wide increase in home runs has also... Read More
Using xwOBA for Predictive Purposes in Pitchers
When it comes to predictive metrics, MLB's statcast has afforded the baseball community a wealth of data since its league-wide installation in 2015. One of the more intriguing metrics is expected wOBA, or xwOBA. This statistic gives us the expected wOBA for a player based on the hit probability of batted balls, calculated using exit... Read More
Champ or Chump - Alcides Escobar and Alex Avila
Fantasy owners hope that every selection they make turns into a stud, but this isn't that realistic. In more practical terms, you want as many strong performers as possible while avoiding roster slots with zero (or less) value. Some positions are easier to find "non-zero" production in than others, giving birth to the concept of... Read More
Champ or Chump - Jesse Hahn and Lewis Brinson
The Kansas City Royals and Oakland A's recently completed a trade that boils down to intriguing arm (Jesse Hahn) for slugging first baseman (Brandon Moss) for our purposes. Hahn is discussed below, while Moss will receive a closer look in a future column. Speaking of trades, much has been made of Miami's inability to get... Read More
Champ or Chump - Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich
Milwaukee's outfield has improved significantly with the additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, but it muddies the waters a little from a fantasy perspective. Domingo Santana should beat out Ryan Braun for the last OF slot, but Eric Thames also offers owners more upside at first base. One report suggests that Braun might play... Read More
2018 Home Run Risers and Fallers - What We Learned
Drafting sluggers is absolutely imperative in fantasy baseball. With homers on the rise, fantasy owners must be sure to prioritize the long ball this season. It seemed like every other fantasy-viable batter hit over 25 HR last year, didn’t it? At the same time, however, sluggers like Mark Trumbo (23 HR), Miguel Cabrera (16 HR),... Read More
Champ or Chump - Felipe Rivero and Colin Moran
The Milwaukee Brewers bought all of the available outfielders, so let's continue to discuss the Gerrit Cole deal. This column previously concluded that Cole may disappoint owners in Houston, while Joe Musgrove has considerable upside. Both of the articles linked above noted that Pittsburgh's infield defense is superior to Houston's, thanks in part to the... Read More
Champ or Chump - Joe Musgrove and Randal Grichuk
Baseball's offseason continues to trickle in moves as opposed to flooding us with them, but the latest batch seem interesting from a fantasy perspective. Joe Musgrove's 4.77 ERA last year may be a big reason prognosticators don't love Pittsburgh's side of the Gerrit Cole trade, but he may have the talent to replace Cole himself.... Read More
2018 Saves Risers and Fallers - What We Learned
For the fourth straight season we have a new No. 1 at the top of the closer leaderboard. Alex Colome concluded the 2017 regular season with 47 saves, six more than the second-place finisher, Kenley Jansen. No one has repeated as the top save-earner since Jim Johnson (2012-2013). As for consistency, Jansen slammed the door shut 41 times... Read More
2018 Strikeout Risers and Fallers - What We Learned
For the second straight season, we witnessed the highest strikeout totals in MLB history. There was an average of 8.25 strikeouts per MLB game in 2017, up from 8.03 strikeouts per game in 2016. Strikeouts have increased in baseball every year since 2005, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse any time... Read More
Using xwOBA as a Predictive Tool for Hitters
With spring training on the horizon, fantasy baseball draft season is in sight, as well. That means it’s time to pore over rankings, go through countless mock drafts, and do plenty of research trying to find that diamond in the rough other owners are undervaluing. Luckily, more statistics are available than ever before to determine... Read More
Champ or Chump - Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen
Five-tool players are among the most sought after commodities in all of fantasy baseball. This is a great thing if they are performing the way you expected them to, but most owners give ex-five tool guys a much longer leash than anyone else on their roster. They end up dropping points in the standings as... Read More
Champ or Chump - Brad Hand and Gerrit Cole
Pitching is the name of the game in both real life and fantasy baseball. Rostering the wrong arms can put any team into a hole it's difficult to dig out from under, but overpaying for the right ones can leave your team exposed on the offensive side. What's a fantasy owner to do? The best... Read More
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Buy or Sell - Pitchers
The dust has finally settled on 2017 and many of us are fully immersed in winter, which means it’s the perfect time to re-evaluate our dynasty squads. Last season featured plenty of breakouts and many head-scratching performances, so where to go from here? The old adage of buying low and selling high is just as... Read More
2018 Stolen Base Risers and Fallers - What We Learned
He did it again! For the third time in four seasons, Dee Gordon held the top spot of the steals leaderboard. He concluded the 2017 season with 60 swipes. Gordon is averaging 53 SB over the past four years. That includes the 2016 season where Gordon missed 80 games due to a suspension. The Seattle Mariners had... Read More
2018 Batting Average Risers and Fallers - What We Learned
The great thing about batting average is that it’s a great starting metric for building a strong fantasy team. It’s one of those rare stats that, when correctly targeted and prioritized, sets the foundation for a season of nearly guaranteed success. In fantasy football, it’s a good idea to acquire players who get red zone... Read More
Champ or Chump - Freddy Galvis and Jay Bruce
Baseball's hot stove is finally starting to heat up a bit, with names like Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole headed to new addresses in 2018. It's late in coming, but now is the time some fantasy owners begin overlooking the smaller moves to concentrate on the biggest names. Don't make that mistake. This doesn't mean that... Read More
Fantasy Implications - Carlos Santana to Phillies
After spending the first eight years of his career in Cleveland, Carlos Santana is finally getting a change in scenery as he joins the Philadelphia Phillies. The signing comes as somewhat of a surprise, as the Phillies finished with the third-worst record in MLB in 2017 and are clearly in a rebuilding mode. Santana will take... Read More
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Buy or Sell - Hitters
The dust has finally settled on 2017 and many of us are fully immersed in winter, which means it’s the perfect time to re-evaluate our dynasty squads. Last season featured plenty of breakouts and many head-scratching performances, so where to go from here? The old adage of buying low and selling high is just as... Read More
Champ or Chump - Yangervis Solarte and Mitch Moreland
Much is made of a team's projected batting order early on in the offseason, but the discussions quickly become moot as the realities of the regular season alter every team's plans. Slumping players move down the batting order, replaced by their more productive teammates. A utility guy could escape the bench and become a fixture... Read More
#TrendingNow - Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Risers and Fallers
We are just under 30 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting! Just under 30 days from the smell of pine tar and freshly cut grass. Just under 30 days from the sounds of fastballs hitting catcher’s mitts and the crack of a wood bat. Just under 30 days until another summer full of memories.... Read More
Fantasy Implications - Stephen Piscotty Traded to the Athletics
The trade of Stephen Piscotty to the A’s is one of the feel-good stories of the offseason, as the St. Louis Cardinals front office moved the Northern California native to the A’s so Piscotty could be closer to his ailing mother. It was a rough year both on and off the field for the former prized prospect.... Read More
Champ or Chump: Chase Headley & Starlin Castro
The following analysis is presented with some misgivings. Both Chase Headley and Starlin Castro were moved this offseason, making them candidates for a change of scenery examination. However, these veteran players do not present an obvious fit with their presumably rebuilding clubs and have been included in trade speculation, with Castro reportedly asking to be... Read More
Fantasy Implications - Yonder Alonso to Indians
It was a breakout year for Yonder Alonso in 2017, as he recorded career-highs in home runs (28), on-base percentage (.365) and slugging percentage (.501). Alonso has generally been able to get on base at a good rate with a career .340 OBP, but it was the power surge that was the most surprising for... Read More
Champ or Chump - Christian Arroyo & Denard Span
We have previously seen that both West Coast teams and bad teams are great places to mine for fantasy gold because nobody is keeping up with their games. There is a third category that also goes underappreciated: the Tampa Bay Rays. The team isn't projected to be bad (80-82 projection by Steamer) and they're not... Read More
Champ or Chump - Magneuris Sierra and Matt Moore
Last week, we looked at how West Coast players frequently become fantasy values because not everyone can stay up late enough to watch them play. The same principle applies to teams that fantasy owners expect to be utterly terrible. The 2018 iteration of the Miami Marlins is therefore a great place to look for potential... Read More
Champ or Chump - Jhoulys Chacin and Yonder Alonso
If you want to know the secret to finding unheralded fantasy assets, the answer could be as simple as looking at poor teams out west. Most media coverage centers on east coast players that the entire country is awake to see. Exceptions might be made for studs like Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw, but no... Read More
Champ or Chump - Zack Cozart and Evan Longoria
Fantasy baseball has long been a game of perception. Will Player A continue his hot start or slump back into mediocrity? Are Player B's recent struggles signs of things to come or a temporary blip on the radar? An analysis of each specific player is the best way to answer these questions, but fantasy owners... Read More
Champ or Chump - Stephen Piscotty and Carlos Santana
As sabermetrics become more widely accepted, analytical stats such as OBP are replacing more luck-based metrics such as batting average in a lot of formats. Playing in leagues like this frequently indicates a willingness to embrace a more realistic approach to the game, but many owners fail to adjust their rankings to their new reality.... Read More
