PGA DFS Preview: 2021 Wyndham Championship

Hi RotoBallers! I'm Andy Lack and I'm very excited to be with you as a new member of the RB PGA team! In our ongoing attempt to expand and improve our PGA coverage, I will be dropping a 'Tournament Preview' every Monday morning.

I hope this preview will give you a head start on your Wyndham research and I'd also like to encourage you to check out my Pick The Pup podcast to hear more of my thoughts on Sedgefield Country Club and this week's tournament. If you aren't already utilizing RotoBaller's amazing weekly PGA content, fix that right now by joining us this week and throughout the rest of the PGA Tour season.

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RotoBaller Weekly PGA Article Schedule

Monday

You can find out all you need to know about this week's layout with Josh Bennett's Course Breakdown (Premium) and learn which golfers have thrived at this course in the past with Joe Nicely's Horse For The Course.

Tuesday

We kick your DFS research into high gear with articles from Spencer Aguiar! Spencer will highlight his favorite DraftKings Plays of the week - an article that also includes his popular PGA DFS Rankings Wizard Model - and offer great tips with his Head-To-Head Betting Preview, while Joe Nicely drops some salary savers in his DraftKings Value Plays (Premium) article. We also have you FanDuel fans covered with free PGA DFS picks for every tournament.

Wednesday

Things start getting intense on Wednesday and we've got you covered! You can check out RotoBaller Staff One And Done selections and get inside the mind of our team with our PGA DFS Expert Roundtable (Premium). We also have two of the most popular articles in the PGA DFS industry with Spencer Aguiar's Vegas Report (Premium) and Joe Nicely's DraftKings Core Four (Premium). You can also check out Josh Bennett's DFS Cheat Sheet (Premium) for a quick cram session!

Tournament Overview

2021 Wyndham Championship

Recent Winners

• 2020: Jim Herman (-21)
• 2019: J.T. Poston (-22)
• 2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21)
• 2017: Henrik Stenson (-22)
• 2016: Si Woo Kim (-21)

Event Details

• Purse: $6,400,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500 (Winner)
• Field: 156 Players

The PGA Tour travels to Greensboro, North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship, the final event of the PGA Tour's regular season. For this reason, there will be an added element of drama, as this tournament represents the last opportunity to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs. After the completion of the Wyndham, only the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to next week's Northern Trust, the first leg of the playoffs.

While most of the world's best players have already safely qualified, there are still some big names in the field this week who have some more work left to do. Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Tommy Fleetwood, Francesco Molinari, and Rickie Fowler all sit right on the bubble and will need a strong performance to keep their season alive.

How much to weigh motivation is always a tricky question for fantasy managers to navigate. There are many PGA Tour pros in this field that need to play well this week, while many others are comfortably in the playoffs regardless of the outcome. With that being said, I often harken back to an old NFL saying, "must win doesn't mean will." In fact, NFL teams in must-win situations actually have a losing record against the spread. Point being, someone needing to play well this week will not be enough of a reason for me to roster them. With that being said, I think it would be foolish to not keep an eye of where players are at in the standings. For example, if two players make the cut on the number and both are out of contention, yet one needs to play well over the weekend to move up in the standings, while the other is comfortably inside the top 125, the former may be more willing to grind out a top-25 than the latter, theoretically speaking. In any right, the added motivation for certain players should make for an exciting and competitive tournament. Let's get into the course breakdown, key statistics, and three players that are worthy of further attention.

Course Breakdown

Sedgefield Country Club - Greensboro, N.C. 

Sedgefield Country Club was designed by famed architect Donald Ross in 1926, and has been the host course of the Wyndham Championship, with some intermissions, since the tournament's inception in 1938. Forest Oaks was the host course from 1977 to 2007, but the tournament returned to Sedgefield in 2008 and hasn't left since.

The Ross design is a par 70 that only measures 7,127 yards on the scorecard. Sedgefield features Champion Bermuda-grass greens, Bermuda fairways, and two and a half foot Bermuda rough. The greens are the same surface that we saw last week at TPC Southwind, and Champion Bermuda is also featured at Quail Hollow and Jackson Country Club.

Sedgefield Country Club is a very typical Carolina golf course, with tree-lined fairways and Bermuda-grass throughout. Measuring 6,000 square feet on average, the greens are by no means small, and pros have hit 71% of Sedgefield's greens on average, compared to the Tour standard of 65%. The challenge really begins once on the greens. Donald Ross is famous for his beguiling green complexes, and while the slumps and hollows may not be as exaggerated as the turtle-back greens at Pinehurst, Sedgefield still boasts a three-putt percentage well above Tour average. The fact that these greens often have multiple quadrants and fall-off areas really just increases the importance of the approach game. Yes, it is easier to hit greens at Sedgefield that many other Tour courses with much smaller greens, but hitting the wrong section of the green or leaving the ball above the hole here could still result in a bogey. Of course, this is still dependent on the firmness of the course. If Sedgefield is playing soft, which it usually does, we will not get the full Donald Ross experience.

Over the past few years, Sedgefield has ranked as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. 30 players finished at 10-under par or better last year, and 47 players finished at 10-under par or better the year before. The cut is generally around -2 or -3, and a score of -21 is generally required to win this tournament. Anytime we have a course that yields low scoring, I will be looking very closely at birdies or better gained, opportunities gained, and average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions.

As I alluded to, while the greens at Sedgefield are by no means difficult to hit, accurate iron play is still essential. On average, top-10 finishers have gained four strokes on approach, and every single one of the top-20 on last year's leaderboard gained strokes in that category. Jim Herman gained 5.9 strokes on approach last year. J.T. Poston was first in the field in strokes gained approach in 2019, Brandt Snedeker was third in 2018, Henrik Stenson was third in 2017, and Si Woo Kim was fifth in 2016. Looking at the last five year average of strokes gained metrics, winners have ranked 28th off the tee, 22nd around the green, 18th in putting and fifth in approach. Yet as I always mention, approach is king every week. How can we get a little more specific?

I found it worth noting that 28% of the approach shots at Sedgefield come from between 150-175 yards. The tour average from that yardage range is only 20%. Sedgefield is pretty standard across all of the other proximity distances with other Tour courses, but then completely vaults up for 150-175 yards. The reason for this is that many of the par fours here are of a very similar length. Eight par fours at Sedgefield measure between 400 and 450 yards. Two of the four par threes also fall between 150-175 yards as well, so that will be an essential range to look at.

In a vacuum, my goal was to hone in on elite short iron and wedge players, solid Bermuda-grass putters, and thrive in easy scoring conditions. Accuracy off the tee, solid lag putting, and a nice history on Donald Ross courses are non-essential, but would certainly be preferred. Let's dig into the metrics!

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Key Statistics 

Outside of the obvious four major statistical categories (strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained putting), here are a few ancillary statistics that should prove pivotal, as well as the top-5 players in the field in these metrics over their last 24 rounds.

1. Proximity 150-175 yards 
   1. Chez Reavie
   2. Russell Henley
   3. Hank Lebioda
   4. Tyler Duncan
   5. C.T. Pan
2. Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass greens 
   1. Chesson Hadley
   2. Louis Oosthuizen
   3. Patrick Reed
   4. Brian Harman
   5. Zach Johnson
3. Birdies or Better Gained 
   1. Patton Kizzire
   2. Jason Kokrak
   3. Seamus Power
   4. Jhonattan Vegas
   5. Hank Lebioda
4. Average Strokes Gained per Round (Easy Scoring Conditions)
   1. Russell Henley
   2. Patton Kizzire
   3. Jhonattan Vegas
   4. Si Woo Kim
   5. Kevin Kisner
5. Opportunities Gained 
   1. Patton Kizzire
   2. Jason Dufner
   3. Louis Oosthuizen
   4. Hideki Matsuyama
   5. Kyle Stanley

While those five statistics are a great place to start, I am also looking at par four scoring (400-450 yards), proximity 125-150 yards, proximity from 150-175 yards, proximity from 200 yards plus, three-putt avoidance, and average strokes gained per Round (Donald Ross Courses).

Players To Target

High-Price Tier

Russell Henley 

"High-price" might be a relative term for Russell Henley. With that being said, I just wasn't able to settle on any of the more elite players in this field. I have my concerns about Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak, Hideki Matsuyama, and Will Zalatoris. While I will certainly land somewhere in that group, Henley is the only player I can guarantee will be a prominent feature in my lineups this week.

Henley is a player I roster often, and he was written up in this column just a few weeks ago for the John Deere Classic, where he delivered an 11th-place finish. I have just become so enamored with the University of Georgia product's iron play. Over his last 36 rounds, Henley ranks second in strokes gained approach, 17th in opportunities gained, second in proximity from 125-150 yards, and seventh in that key proximity distance of 150-175, out of all players in this field. He is coming off a start where he gained 6.3 strokes putting at the John Deere. We cannot even suggest that he is beating up on weaker competition either, as Henley also gained 6.9 strokes at the U.S. Open recently. The three-time PGA Tour winner also ranks number one in this field over his last 36 rounds in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. Sedgefield is a perfect course for him, and I strongly expect him to improve even further on last year's ninth-place finish.

Mid-Price Tier

Talor Gooch 

Talor Gooch has been on my radar for quite some time now as a potential break-out candidate. The Oklahoma State product just continues to make cuts and play consistently solid golf. Gooch has made 13 of 16 cuts this season, including seven in a row. During that stretch, Gooch has quietly finished 33rd at the Open Championship and 44th at the PGA Championship. Less we not forget that Gooch also finished fifth this year at the Players. Point being, Gooch is not just some Barbasol Championship superstar, he's a real player that is capable of competing with the best in the world. I'm not suggesting he's the next Tiger Woods, but a Max Homa-esque trajectory for Gooch feels very likely over the next year.

While there is nothing about Sedgefield that screams Talor Gooch to me, he did finish 25th here last year while gaining 6.7 strokes ball-striking. Again, I think Gooch is a much better player than someone who should just specifically be deployed at certain courses. He plays well everywhere, and for what it's worth, Gooch did gain 2.7 strokes putting last time he was on Champion Bermuda at Quail Hollow. He putted beautifully on Bermuda during the Florida swing as well. I have high hopes for Gooch, and I feel strongly this is the week he enters the radar of more fantasy managers and golf fans alike.

Value-Price Tier

Ryan Armour 

While I may not be as high on Ryan Armour's talent as the other two players I have just mentioned, Armour is a perfect example of a player with a specific skill-set that fits nicely at Sedgefield. Over his last 36 rounds, Armour ranks top-30 in opportunities gained, proximity from 125-150 yards and par four scoring (400-450 yards). He is at worse, field average, and often closer to the 75th percentile in every other key metric that I have mentioned above. Over his last 24 rounds, the Ohio State product also ranks 14th in this field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda, and first in average strokes gained per round on Donald Ross courses. Luckily my projections that Ryan Armour is a perfect fit for Sedgefield Country Club have some basis, as he has finished fourth, eighth, 22nd, and 25th in his last four appearances at this tournament.

I am also interested in Armour because of his ability to pop. Once we get into this value-price tier, there just aren't a lot of players with top-ten upside. Ryan Armour has three top-tens in his last seven starts! Sure, an eighth at the Palmetto, a fifth at the Barbasol, and a sixth at the 3M Open may not be that impressive on the surface, but I have struggled to find any similarly priced player that has displayed that type of upside recently. Armour is coming off a missed cut last week at the Barracuda Championship, but an opening round 74 derailed him. The former Sanderson Farms Championship winner fired a 66 on Friday to just miss the cut on the number. I expect him to continue that momentum this week in Greensboro.

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