RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - American Express

3 years ago by Joe Nicely

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a third season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - Sony Open

Joe Nicely - Abraham Ancer

Alternate - Sam Burns

Another OAD season, another year of being behind early...even though I grabbed Webb Simpson in last year's Sony Open (why didn't I just do that again this year?), I struggled mightily at the outset of 2020, before eventually finding my groove as the season wore on. My first selection of the new year, Sungjae Im, was one that I made with confidence, but it seems as though Sungjae and I were on different wavelengths, as he struggled to even make the cut at Waialae and finished in a pathetic tie for 56th. Yuck!

As we move back to the continental United States this week, I don't feel there are any "obvious" OAD choices for the American Express, an event that has traditionally produced longshot winners. Due to that fact, I decided that this wasn't the best spot to burn a "big gun", and while I strongly considered taking a wild stab with players like Sam Burns, Doc Redman, or Charley Hoffman, I ultimately settled somewhere in the middle with Abraham Ancer. Ancer is a player with a game I really respect...he hits fairways, hits greens, and is a streaky putter. Nothing flashy, just solid. That's historically been what's needed in this event and the Mexican almost notched his first PGA Tour victory in last year's AmEx on the heels of a final-round 63. That first win could come this week and I'm comfortable using Ancer since his game doesn't necessarily translate wonderfully to a big chunk of the courses on the PGA Tour schedule, but should be a great fit this week.

Yearly Earnings - $15,048

Yearly Cuts Made - 1/1

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Spencer Aguiar - Abraham Ancer

Alternate - Patrick Cantlay

I got a good performance from Webb Simpson at the Sony Open, although what would this contest be if I wasn't complaining about lost earnings down the stretch. Simpson's out of bounds on the par-three 11th mixed with his second-shot error at the easy par-five 18th probably removed at least an extra 300k out of his pockets and might have prevented the American from having a real shot at capturing the title.

As we enter the second event of the season, this is an extremely difficult board to narrow down to one selection. I could make a strong argument that Patrick Cantlay is worth a shot as a rare favorite, but I think I would rather save him from a venue that features Bentgrass greens.

After going back and forth on this decision, I have elected to roll with Abraham Ancer, who finished the first two rounds at the Sony Open ranked 12th in the field, despite missing the cut. A shoddy short game saw him lose everything he gained with his driver and irons, but one would have to imagine that some sort of positive regression is in store for him on the greens. Ancer is ranked 27th in strokes gained putting when looking at his two-year baseline compared to this field, and while Bermuda is his worst surface metrically, we are only talking about a deviation of about 0.15 strokes per round between that and his preferable Poa setup. Ancer's two straight top-20s at the property should bode well for an excellent bounce-back opportunity, and I am fully ok playing things a little safer with a choice that will undoubtedly be popular.

Yearly Earnings - $277,750

Yearly Cuts Made - 1/1

Josh Bennett - Patrick Reed

Alternate - Russell Henley

I think the tournament this week is going to be much different than in the past. A tournament that has been labeled a “birdie-fest” is going to be flipped a little by having dropped by far the easiest course on the rotation and added in another round on the hardest. This means that those making the cut will have played 3 rounds at a course that should be hard to score on. This course is get-able with precise irons, but many of the greens have very small spaces to actually land it on. If they aren’t dropping it on a dime all over the course, they’re going to need good short games. Many of the players that have the best scores on the stadium course are unsurprisingly very good short game players.

With that in mind, I’m going with someone that is routinely touted as having the best short game on tour. Reed also happens to score the ball well too, just in case for some reason it turns into a birdie-fest. At his elite level, we won’t see Reed in a field with this low of strength very often, so this is a perfect time to roll him out in one of his best chances to get a win. As long as he isn’t pulling driver out and dumping it into the water, I fully expect him to be in contention down the stretch on Sunday.

Yearly Earnings - $34,577

Yearly Cuts Made - 1/1

Andrew Putters - Scottie Scheffler

Alternate - Patrick Cantlay

Ring the bell! We're not even through January yet and I'm already walking back an opinion! I said on this week's episode of The Turn podcast that I was all-in on Phil Mickelson, but after digging a little deeper into the field, there's no way that I can seriously use Phil Mickelson here. As I mentioned in the RotoBaller Expert Roundtable, "The closer I get to Thursday, Scheffler is making more and more sense."

First off, you have course history, Scheffler finished third in last year's AmEx. We also have to consider field strength and when comparing this field to what we saw after the restart, this is undoubtedly a weaker field of competition. Lastly, look at SG: Ball Striking. Scottie is top-20 in Ball Striking and top-five Off the Tee. Scoring will be super low this week and Scheffler is a player that will give himself plenty of opportunities to score.

Yearly Earnings - $14,454

Yearly Cuts Made - 1/1

Running Totals

	Joe Nicely	Spencer Aguiar	Josh Bennett	Andrew Putter
Sony Open	Sungjae Im $15,048	Webb Simpson $277,750	Kevin Kisner $34,577	Cameron Smith $14,454

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