The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 4)

Last week's full launch of The Baller Ranks was one of the most gratifying things I've done with fantasy baseball, and I want to thank everyone who reached out with support, suggestions, and questions. To that end, I got some questions about why guys moved or didn't.

Early in the season, projection systems struggle to be accurate, so I've resisted the temptation to dramatically shift players based on performance. Early-season projections are notoriously fickle, and these first two weeks have been especially bizarre. That doesn't mean that preseason projections were bad. It means there is a lot of noise being filtered and new data being integrated. The simple reality is that summer camp did not prepare players as well as Spring Training does. Many top-tier hitters have struggled, and there have far more pitching injuries than previous seasons. Pitchers may be better able to tap into their max performance, but it's coming with an increased risk to their health. If you haven't already done so, be sure to check out Nick Mariano's updated top 101 relief pitchers and top 101 starting pitchers. With so much noise in the data, these rankings don't reflect major swings based on general performance so far. Two weeks is just barely long enough to properly judge if hitter results are meaningful or just fluky.

As expected, the second full week did bring us more craziness. After publishing last week, Yoenis Cespedes and Lorenzo Cain opted out. Ozzie Albies went on a much-needed trip to the IL, and second base as a position continued to be a mess — if you drafted a top-ten second baseman, you're probably pretty upset with your return so far. In the last two days, Giancarlo headed for the IL, Joey Gallo's wrist flared up, and Ronald Acuna's K-rate spiked to 35%, but then he hit three home runs last night, so there's that. While plenty of other positions saw significant shakeup, outfield saw the most movement of any position. We'll start there, but here is your link to the full Baller Ranks and the top 200 hitters.

Top 200 Hitters for Rest of Season (as of 8/10/20)

Players of Note

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)

Last week, one Reddit user wanted to know why Judge wasn't placed higher given: he'd already hit four home runs with eight runs and nine RBI. I didn't get the chance to reply before he deleted his post, but the answer is relatively simple: the concerns about Judge and the more modest projections don't have anything to do with his ability. We know that he is a tower of power. We know that he can muscle a one-handed line drive over the centerfield wall. We know that he is a legitimate MVP contender.

Unfortunately, we also know that he only played 112 games in 2018 and 102 games in 2019, and that he had a stress fracture from last year that was still a problem during Spring Training. On a per-game basis, there are only a handful of players that I rate more highly than Aaron Judge. However, there's a real chance that Judge suffers another injury that derails his season. It's the same reason that I didn't push James Paxton all the way back up my preseason rankings when he was supposedly recovered from his back injury.

If the sample is too small, and the injury concern remains, why is Judge moving up this much? Because for two weeks now, he's shown that he can swing the bat comfortably and fully. For the time being, Judge looks to be in good health. There may be underlying troubles that come up, but two weeks is enough to push him up towards kindred spirit, Pete Alonso.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF, Braves)

Last week, there were literally dozens of fantasy managers yelling out: "See, we told you there wasn't enough of a track record to justify the first pick!" Dozens, I tell you. As I noted in the introduction, the real concern was in that strikeout rate, but a three-dinger day is enough to settle most fantasy owners.

I don't want to undersell the importance of Acuna's night, but that strikeout rate is still a concern. Is it enough to cripple his value? Of course not, but it is a source of uncertainty, which is why he's down a dollar. Even before Sunday's homer-fest, we knew Acuna was a top-five player. It was just a matter of whether something was going to properly undermine his value.

Trent Grisham (OF, Padres)

When the Padres acquired Grisham last year, there were plenty of analysts who wondered about whether that was a bad sign for the prospect. After all, why would the Brewers trade away a Major League-ready prospect who had shown such promise? For many, it suggested that the power Grisham had displayed was a mirage – that he was really the player who had posted ISOs below .125 in his first four seasons of minor-league ball.

Grisham's .337 xwOBA outstrips his .331 wOBA, so his results so far have been legitimate, even if they are still of the small-sample variety. Similarly, his 7.6 barrel rate is good enough for the 87th percentile in the league, and he already has one drive at 111.9 MPH. Those factors push his projections up to Kyle Tucker. In fact, the Padres seem committed to Grisham's playing time in a way that the Astros are not for Tucker, and that difference may actually make Grisham the safer bet despite his weaker preseason projections.

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, Giants):

Yastrzemski has picked up where he left off last season. He owns a .326 ISO, .304 AVG., and a remarkable .458 OBP.  It helps that the Giants are also allowing him to play every single game.

Yastrzemski's arrival and ascent up the outfield chart are one of the more perplexing phenomena in player evaluation. It's not just that he continues to succeed as a power hitter in a ballpark that dwarfs extraordinary power hitters. It's that his power arose after six years of being a middle-of-the-pack prospect. Yastrzemski's success is as unique as 2018 when German Marquez was an ace in Coors Field. However, hitting in Oracle Park doesn't disrupt Yastrzemski's ability to succeed in other parks the way Coors does to Rockie pitchers.

Most compellingly, Yastrzemski has improved his BB% and K% numbers from last year. While there has been some definite BABIP luck (.389), he's still in line for a sold average and impressive power. Owners can reasonably expect a 30-HR pace and a .260 average. The ratio of hard-hit balls has somehow improved to 45.0%, but his ground-ball ratio, which is more stable at this point, has regressed to an identical 45.0%. Yastrzemski's projections have gone from negative during the preseason to around 150 at this point. My current ranking is more aggressive than that.  If he maintains this production as more stats stabilize, you can expect additional moves up.

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, Yankees)

Stanton hits the IL with a hamstring strain, and the Yankees will probably release the severity after I submit this for publication. I've dropped his value based on ten days on the IL. However, if it's a grade 2 or 3, go ahead and reduce his value into the low single digits.

Stanton's injury may change the Yankees' approach with Miguel Andujar, who was just relegated to the taxi squad. The change made no sense, but Stanton's situation opens a spot for a big bat like Andujar's. Conversely, if the Yankees leave Andujar on the taxi squad, he falls well outside the top-200.

Dominic Smith (OF/1B, Mets)

Smith is the primary beneficiary of Cespedes' departure, but he's hardly a plug-and-play replacement. Smith's power is less reliable, and his batting average will settle in around .240. He's also hitting in the bottom half of the Mets' batting order, so we're looking at reduced run and RBI opportunities.

Those limitations aside, Smith is a player with real raw power and erratic game power. He's managed to barrel the ball more frequently this season, but the numbers are still limited so it's not yet clear he's grown as a player. He has only six hard-hit BBEs when most players in the top-200 have double-digits. A big part of that issue is playing time, which has just been resolved, but even if things break right and we see him take a reasonable step forward, Smith probably finishes as the 50th ranked outfielder rather than the 40th. That's still valuable in even in 12-teamers, but it's not earth-moving. If he doesn't take a step forward, he's bench bat or waiver-wire fodder for most leagues.

Ozzie Albies (2B, Braves)

Albies issue is a relatively simple one. He has a bone bruise on his wrist that has been bothering him since the start of summer camp. That's a long time to play in pain, and it suggests that the injury is substantial even if it is not particularly traumatic. Playing through injury can have negative impacts on a player even after they return from the IL. Albies is still just 23, and maybe this is a situation where he just needs ten days of actual rest rather than trying to muscle through the injury.

However, if we simply subtract the five additional games of his IL stint ((he's already about halfway through) and factor in reduced effectiveness after he returns, Albies' value drops to a mid-tier second baseman. Owners in head-to-head leagues can be a little more optimistic if their playoff chances look good, but otherwise, Albies should really be reduced to Max Muncy and Whit Merrifield territory around $16. If it looks like a slower return, then we're talking about a fall below that.

Dansby Swanson (SS, Braves)

Swanson's value might actually be improved by Albies' absence because the shortstop will hold onto the second spot in the Braves' lineup.  It's not clear that Swanson needs that help. He already owns a stat-line of 14 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 3 SB, and a .314 AVG.

While Swanson does get a bump in the rankings, there is some reason to believe we're seeing more of a hot-streak than a full-fledged breakout: Swanson's max exit velocity is still lingering at 104.6 MPH and his average exit velocity is sitting at 90.0 MPH. Meanwhile, he's squaring up the ball at a good, but not exceptional 7.5 Brls/PA. Compare those to his 2019 numbers of 108.4 MPH max exit velocity, 93.1 MPH average exit velocity, and 6.8 Brls/PA.

Similarly, Swanson's 9.5° launch angle this year is actually worse than his 14.4° from last year. With the exception of his hard-hit rate, the rest of Swanson's batted-ball profile looks awfully similar to 2019. Exit velocity and launch angle are still outside the stabilization range, and it could be a case of production leading the peripheral stats. Still, this ranking of $6 might be his max unless he continues to steal more bases than he has in the past.

Trea Turner (SS, Nationals)

Turner simply hasn't produced at the rate he was expected so far this season. His numbers are down in every fantasy category, and owners don't even have the steals to show for the high price. Granted, Turner has struggled to get on base at the same rate as last year, but for the last two seasons, Turner has averaged one steal every 3.6 games. We're now 20% of the way through the season, and Turner has yet to log a single stolen base.

Those are frustrating numbers, but owners can take solace in the fact that the Covid-19 complications have meant that the Nationals have only played 12 games in comparison to the standard 16 or 17 for most teams. Additionally, Turner has suffered from some bad BABIP luck (.205), and his BB% (6.4%) and K% (14.9%) are just below his career numbers.

Let's take a more critical view of Turner's steals. Over the last two seasons, he's averaged one steal per 4.3 stops to first base (BB+1B). So far, he's stopped at first base only eight times. Of his eight hits, he has three doubles and one HR. Once his BABIP levels out, those SBs should reappear. Add those numbers to some situations where it was less advantageous for him to run, and the change isn't yet alarming, though we should monitor. To me, Turner is a textbook case of an elite player whose value doesn't change because his peripherals indicate he's fine despite being off to a slow start.

Christian Vazquez (C, Red Sox)

Despite being awesome so far, Vazquez is seeing only a minor bump this week because the underlying stats aren't yet there to show that he's genuinely a different hitter than his preseason projections. In fact, Vazquez's velocity is down across the board since last year. That's not really a concern at this moment, but it undercuts the claim that he is substantively more powerful than we've known.

Vazquez had already moved up last week, and each passing week gives credence to what he accomplished last year. I'm a believer that he is more valuable than his ADP, but he's already up from his preseason value at $4.

Ian Happ (2B/OF, Cubs)

Happ has started 2020 as the type of player owners hoped for last year. He's swinging the bat more comfortably, and he's played in every one of the Cubs' 13 games. His BB% and K% are better, but more importantly, Happ's barrel rate has improved to 14.8%. Moreover, he's already broken the 108 MPH max exit velocity threshold. His average exit velocity is in the 89th percentile, his hard-hit% is 97th, and his xwOBA is 97th.

Happ is a target for acquisition if his current owner is skeptical, and he is somehow still available in 45% of leagues, so that's sort of incredible.

Gio Urshela (3B, Yankees)

Urshella's numbers (10-3-13-1-.341) have been bolstered by the Yankees' impressive offense, but that's hardly the real story here. The simplest version is that Urshela has hit the ball with more authority this season than any previous time in his career.

Urshela has an incredibly high hard-hit rate (51.4%) and his exit velocity is up from 90.6 to 92.3. He's been pulling the ball more effectively and his launch angle has increased from 13.5° to 14.1°. Check out his percentile rankings from Baseball Savant:

The improved velocity and launch angle have pushed Urshela's barrel rate from 7.0 Brls/PA to 10.8 Brls/PA. Like Happ above, Urshela may be one of this year's most identifiable breakouts. There's been no real change in his BABIP luck, and his expected stats (.366 xBA, .626 xSLG, .455 xwOBA) indicate that we may see even better production than we have so far this season.

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