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The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 9)

paul goldschmidt fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Last week I wrote that the schedule had begun to have an outsized impact on value. At this point, it's not impacting projected value even more than recent performance. There are exceptions to that, but that's the overarching rule this week. Paul Goldschmidt's value has been buoyed by this aspect for much of the season. The first baseman has had an excellent campaign while hitting in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks, but his value has been inflated since St. Louis was shut down during its COVID outbreak back in August.

While I want this final column to be similar to the ones that preceded it, these last eleven days are unique even within the context of a season that has been unique. In trying to adjust the column to fit the moment, this update is also less process-based than previous versions and more a reflection of the current state of baseball. For instance, the projections systems maintain optimism about seasonal underperformers like JD Martinez, but these final ranks for the season reflect some of the time limitations and schedule impact of the remaining games. Simply put, these final rankings are more focused on immediate performance than previous versions. Throughout the season, projections and peripheral stats have driven the process. I'm not about to abandon that altogether, but at this point, the median team has ten games left. That changes the situation.

As we look down the barrel of the season's final days, I want to be sure to thank the team here at Rotoballer and Nick Mariano, who has anchored the pitcher side of things. It's been a real pleasure reading his installments each week and getting to collaborate with him. Likewise, I've had a number of readers reach out with feedback about player valuation, formatting, or features for the sheet. A big thank-you to everyone. It's made this process more fun, and I think it has made the sheet much better.

Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!

 

Rest of Season Schedules: Strength vs. Volume

Rather than looking at individual players this week, here is an overview of the data that is helping to drive some of the changes in player value.

I took the time to compile opponents, the strength of opposing pitching staffs, normalized both, and then combined the data to provide the relative difference in value for the rest of the season. I believe I have accurately accounted for all the remaining seven-inning double-headers. Factoring all that in, here are the MLB teams ranked by ROS value based on opponents and remaining games. The right-hand column shows each team's strength-of-schedule multiplied by their remaining games.

Team Games Remaining Strength of Schedule ROS wROS
Marlins 12 103.4 120.8
Nationals 12 103.3 120.7
Cardinals 11 101.2 112.4
Phillies 11 100.2 111.3
Astros 10 110.3 110.9
Blue Jays 11 98.5 109.5
Yankees 10 108.2 108.7
Rockies 11 96.3 107.0
Rangers 10 105.6 106.2
Indians 10 104.5 105.0
Braves 9 109.8 104.6
Orioles 10 102.2 102.7
Mets 10 101.4 101.9
Rays 10 101.1 101.7
Pirates 11 90.9 101.0
D-backs 9 105.7 100.6
Royals 9 104.1 99.2
Athletics 9 102.7 97.8
Giants 10 97.1 97.6
Mariners 10 95.8 96.3
Dodgers 9 101.1 96.3
Red Sox 9 100.6 95.8
Brewers 9 98.2 93.5
Cubs 9 96.3 91.7
Angels 9 94.6 90.1
White Sox 10 85.6 86.1
Tigers 9 90.3 86.0
Padres 7 111.1 82.3
Twins 8 95.6 81.0
Reds 8 86.8 73.5

The table above is about the remaining schedule only, and not the quality of the individual players on those teams. Basically, a league-average player on the Marlins should be 20% more valuable than a league-average player on Diamondbacks. In case you had any doubt about Starling Marte's value down the stretch, it should be good. Likewise, if you haven't already been starting players for every single double-header, the table above should prompt you to correct that behavior.

 

Buying Bats with Bulk

The first thing that jumps out is that the top two teams have the most games remaining. Both Washington and Miami have above average schedules, and they'll get to play 12 more games against those weaker opponents. To be frank, I thought that the strength-of-schedule would have a larger impact, but the table above shows volume is king. Again, the wROS scores do reflect double-headers or the Nationals' and Marlins' schedules would be around 25% more valuable than the average team.

By contrast, the Padres' hitters have the easiest remaining schedule. They get to face the Mariners, Angels, and Giants, but the Friars are sitting at the bottom because they have only eight games remaining. The Yankees still have a strong schedule, but they have fewer games to maximize their value. Meanwhile, the Rockies will see two of MLB's worst pitching staffs when they play Arizona and San Francisco, but they'll be away for both of those games, so the benefit of the park factor is reversed.

Obviously, this all exists in a vacuum, but in the context of the final eleven days, managers need to be thinking about this when making roster moves and setting their lineups. For leagues with daily moves, managers can stream hitters against MLB's weaker pitching staffs, especially teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. If you can catch one of those teams on the road, it's all the better. For leagues with transaction limits or weekly lineups, it makes sense to go see which Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, and Phillies are available on the wire for the final week.

 

Where to Find Steals

While most of the fantasy stats aggregate around opposing team wOBA, steals are an entirely separate category. Yes, some teams have particularly noticeable weaknesses: the Diamondbacks and Red Sox give up a ton of home runs, for instance. However, bad pitching staffs generally give up runs, RBI, home runs, and hits in equally generous measures.

For managers in need of a couple of extra steals, the Angels (41), Braves (37), Nationals (36), Diamondbacks (35), and Mariners (35) have been the most susceptible to giving up bases. That makes a player like Leody Taveras, who will face the Angels and Diamondbacks, especially valuable. The same could be true for Jon Berti if he returns from the IL this weekend. The Marlins will see both the Nationals and Braves in this final stretch. If you are a believer in Jazz Chisholm, he should have the same opportunity as Berti. Andres Gimenez has been a pleasant surprise this season, but he's rostered in only 15% of leagues, and the Mets also face the Braves and the Nationals for a combined seven games. Any one of those four players could add two or three steals for a team.

The sprint season has left us with a final run that is closer to something like fantasy football than fantasy baseball. Middle-of-the-pack teams can dramatically change their position with these final games. Hopefully, this schedule breakdown gives you some opportunities to do that.

Here are the Baller Ranks Top-200 hitters and the Meta Report for Week 9/10:

Rank $ Player Pos Trend
1 45.0 Juan Soto OF 1 ▲
2 41.0 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 2 ▲
3 41.0 Mike Trout OF -2 ▼
4 39.0 Trea Turner SS 5 ▲
5 39.0 Bryce Harper OF 1 ▲
6 38.0 Mookie Betts OF -1 ▼
7 38.0 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 0 ▬
8 37.0 Christian Yelich OF -5 ▼
9 35.0 Trevor Story SS -1 ▼
10 33.0 Freddie Freeman 1B 2 ▲
11 33.0 Francisco Lindor SS 0 ▬
12 31.0 Jose Ramirez 3B 1 ▲
13 30.0 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 9 ▲
14 29.0 Marcell Ozuna DH 4 ▲
15 29.0 Cody Bellinger OF -5 ▼
16 28.0 Nelson Cruz DH 0 ▬
17 27.0 Nolan Arenado 3B -2 ▼
18 26.0 Manny Machado 3B -1 ▼
19 25.0 J.T. Realmuto C -5 ▼
20 25.0 Eloy Jimenez OF 1 ▲
21 25.0 Rafael Devers 3B -2 ▼
22 24.0 Tim Anderson SS 6 ▲
23 24.0 Starling Marte OF 1 ▲
24 23.0 Corey Seager SS 2 ▲
25 23.0 Luis Robert OF -5 ▼
26 22.0 DJ LeMahieu 2B 11 ▲
27 21.0 Xander Bogaerts SS -4 ▼
28 21.0 Keston Hiura 2B 1 ▲
29 21.0 Nick Castellanos OF -4 ▼
30 20.0 Jose Abreu 1B 2 ▲
31 20.0 Ozzie Albies 2B 0 ▬
32 19.5 Whit Merrifield OF 1 ▲
33 19.0 Anthony Rendon 3B 10 ▲
34 19.0 Pete Alonso 1B -7 ▼
35 18.5 Kyle Tucker OF 5 ▲
36 18.0 Charlie Blackmon OF 0 ▬
37 18.0 George Springer OF -2 ▼
38 17.5 Anthony Rizzo 1B 0 ▬
39 17.5 Carlos Correa SS 5 ▲
40 17.0 Luke Voit 1B 15 ▲
41 17.0 Eugenio Suarez 3B 4 ▲
42 17.0 Marcus Semien SS -1 ▼
43 17.0 Gleyber Torres SS 11 ▲
44 16.5 Didi Gregorius SS 5 ▲
45 16.0 Eddie Rosario OF -3 ▼
46 16.0 Josh Donaldson 3B 11 ▲
47 15.5 Michael Conforto OF 5 ▲
48 15.5 Aaron Judge OF/DH 64 ▲
49 15.0 Joey Gallo OF -1 ▼
50 15.0 Alex Bregman 3B -20 ▼
51 15.0 Ramon Laureano OF -5 ▼
52 14.5 Franmil Reyes DH 1 ▲
53 14.5 Gio Urshela 3B 66 ▲
54 14.5 Yuli Gurriel 1B -3 ▼
55 14.5 Kyle Schwarber OF -5 ▼
56 14.0 Andrew McCutchen OF 6 ▲
57 14.0 Miguel Sano 1B 3 ▲
58 14.0 Giancarlo Stanton DH 98 ▲
59 13.5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B/DH -1 ▼
60 13.5 J.D. Martinez DH -13 ▼
61 13.0 Matt Olson 1B 0 ▬
62 13.0 Yasmani Grandal C 1 ▲
63 12.5 Wil Myers OF 11 ▲
64 12.5 Brandon Lowe 2B 1 ▲
65 12.0 Mike Yastrzemski OF 13 ▲
66 12.0 Max Muncy 1B 1 ▲
67 12.0 Bo Bichette SS/DH 21 ▲
68 12.0 Yoan Moncada 3B -2 ▼
69 11.5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 14 ▲
70 11.0 Adalberto Mondesi SS 35 ▲
71 11.0 Willson Contreras C -2 ▼
72 11.0 Jonathan Villar SS -13 ▼
73 11.0 Javier Baez SS -34 ▼
74 10.5 Alex Verdugo OF -3 ▼
75 10.0 Jonathan Schoop 2B -7 ▼
76 10.0 Michael Brantley DH -1 ▼
77 10.0 Ryan Mountcastle OF 22 ▲
78 9.5 Randal Grichuk OF 13 ▲
79 9.5 Cavan Biggio 2B 6 ▲
80 9.5 Brian Anderson 3B 15 ▲
81 9.5 Josh Bell 1B 19 ▲
82 9.0 Teoscar Hernandez OF 75 ▲
83 9.0 Trent Grisham OF -1 ▼
84 9.0 Renato Nunez 1B -5 ▼
85 9.0 Jorge Polanco SS -5 ▼
86 8.5 Dansby Swanson SS -5 ▼
87 8.5 Dominic Smith 1B/OF/DH 3 ▲
88 8.5 Ian Happ OF -4 ▼
89 8.5 Jeff McNeil 2B/3B/OF/DH 26 ▲
90 8.5 Alec Bohm 3B 20 ▲
91 8.0 Dylan Moore OF 25 ▲
92 8.0 Will Smith C -3 ▼
93 8.0 Corey Dickerson OF 8 ▲
94 8.0 Austin Meadows OF -24 ▼
95 7.5 Kyle Lewis OF 1 ▲
96 7.5 Kyle Seager 3B 1 ▲
97 7.5 Austin Nola C 1 ▲
98 7.5 Kolten Wong 2B 11 ▲
99 7.5 Carlos Santana 1B -7 ▼
100 7.0 Yadier Molina C -6 ▼
101 7.0 Mike Moustakas 2B -28 ▼
102 6.5 Jesse Winker DH -16 ▼
103 6.5 Adam Eaton OF 4 ▲
104 6.0 Jake Cronenworth 2B -2 ▼
105 6.0 Hunter Dozier OF 31 ▲
106 6.0 Byron Buxton OF 5 ▲
107 5.5 Maikel Franco 3B 17 ▲
108 5.5 Travis d'Arnaud C 10 ▲
109 5.5 Paul DeJong SS 11 ▲
110 5.5 Edwin Encarnacion DH 13 ▲
111 5.0 A.J. Pollock OF 10 ▲
112 5.0 Mitch Moreland 1B -4 ▼
113 5.0 Pedro Severino C -10 ▼
114 5.0 Willy Adames SS -1 ▼
115 5.0 Aaron Hicks OF 13 ▲
116 5.0 Kris Bryant 3B -40 ▼
117 5.0 Eduardo Escobar 3B -40 ▼
118 4.5 Christian Walker 1B -1 ▼
119 4.5 Donovan Solano 2B 18 ▲
120 4.5 J.D. Davis 3B -16 ▼
121 4.5 Salvador Perez C 50 ▲
122 4.5 Victor Robles OF -16 ▼
123 4.5 Justin Upton OF 13 ▲
124 4.0 Kevin Pillar OF 7 ▲
125 4.0 Mark Canha OF -11 ▼
126 4.0 Jean Segura 2B -8 ▼
127 4.0 Nick Solak OF -2 ▼
128 4.0 Avisail Garcia OF -6 ▼
129 4.0 Gary Sanchez C -36 ▼
130 3.5 Jesus Aguilar 1B 32 ▲
131 3.5 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B 3 ▲
132 3.5 Alex Dickerson OF 10 ▲
133 3.5 Colin Moran 1B/3B/DH -7 ▼
134 3.0 Adam Duvall OF 26 ▲
135 3.0 Brad Miller DH 8 ▲
136 3.0 David Fletcher SS 67 ▲
137 3.0 Tommy Edman 3B 58 ▲
138 3.0 Tyler O'Neill OF 62 ▲
139 3.0 Sean Murphy C 55 ▲
140 3.0 Joc Pederson OF -10 ▼
141 2.5 Joey Votto 1B 6 ▲
142 2.5 Justin Turner 3B 3 ▲
143 2.5 Andres Gimenez 2B/3B/SS 16 ▲
144 2.5 Jose Altuve 2B 11 ▲
145 2.5 Wilson Ramos C -4 ▼
146 2.5 Max Kepler OF -7 ▼
147 2.5 Jo Adell OF -18 ▼
148 2.0 Hunter Renfroe OF 0 ▬
149 1.0 Bobby Dalbec 1B/3B/DH 51 ▲
150 2.0 J.P. Crawford SS -12 ▼
151 2.0 Christian Vazquez C 49 ▲
152 2.0 Leody Taveras OF 48 ▲
153 2.0 Hunter Renfroe OF -5 ▼
154 2.0 Gavin Lux 2B/DH 25 ▲
155 2.0 Howie Kendrick 1B/DH -6 ▼
156 1.5 Chris Taylor OF 34 ▲
157 1.5 Evan Longoria 3B -24 ▼
158 1.5 Clint Frazier OF 10 ▲
159 1.5 Miguel Cabrera DH 5 ▲
160 1.5 Nick Ahmed SS 40 ▲
161 1.5 Austin Riley 3B -10 ▼
162 1.5 Asdrubal Cabrera 1B -9 ▼
163 1.5 Joey Bart C -9 ▼
164 1.0 Eric Hosmer 1B -14 ▼
165 1.0 Brandon Belt 1B -4 ▼
166 1.0 Brandon Nimmo OF -3 ▼
167 1.0 David Peralta OF -2 ▼
168 1.0 Shohei Ohtani DH -81 ▼
169 1.0 Ryan Braun 1B/OF/DH 39 ▲
170 1.0 Matt Carpenter 3B 30 ▲
171 1.0 Niko Goodrum SS 9 ▲
172 1.0 Austin Slater OF/DH -5 ▼
173 1.0 Chance Cisco C 3 ▲
174 1.0 Tommy Pham OF/DH 0 ▬
175 1.0 Amed Rosario SS 7 ▲
176 1.0 Nick Senzel OF 5 ▲
177 1.0 Jared Walsh 1B/DH 23 ▲
178 1.0 Austin Romine C 0 ▬
179 1.0 Rougned Odor 2B 21 ▲
180 1.0 Jason Heyward OF 20 ▲
181 1.0 Shogo Akiyama OF 19 ▲
182 1.0 Jed Gyorko 1B/3B 18 ▲
183 0.8 Max Stassi C 0 ▬
184 1.0 Josh Rojas 2B/SS/OF/DH 16 ▲
185 1.0 Shogo Akiyama OF 15 ▲
186 1.0 Jon Berti 2B/3B/SS/OF -20 ▼
187 1.0 Jorge Soler DH -115 ▼
188 1.0 Luis Arraez 2B 12 ▲
189 1.0 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF/DH 11 ▲
190 1.0 Robbie Grossman OF 10 ▲
191 1.0 Anthony Santander OF 9 ▲
192 1.0 James McCann C 8 ▲
193 1.0 Daulton Varsho C/OF/DH 0 ▬
194 1.0 Andrelton Simmons SS 2 ▲
195 1.0 Ryan McMahon 2B -25 ▼
196 1.0 Miguel Rojas SS 4 ▲
197 1.0 Kole Calhoun OF 3 ▲
198 1.0 Danny Jansen C 2 ▲
199 1.0 Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 3B/OF/DH 2 ▲
200 1.0 Willie Calhoun OF/DH 1 ▲



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